The decline of the Russian economy is not beneficial to China
The large-scale sanctions that have been slapped on Russia by the “collective West” naturally raised the question of its deepening and expanding economic relations with China. According to a number of parameters, Russia has no alternatives to cooperation with the ...
... amounts to Asia, selling oil at a discount. However, even such a transfer of export is unlikely to result in a radical revenue drop in the current supplier’s market situation. It is only possible with a significant rollback in oil prices. The new EU sanctions will have little impact on the Russian economy in the short term, especially given the aforementioned exceptions.
Other measures of the sixth package seem even less critical. The disconnection of three Russian banks from SWIFT does not make much of a difference for the Russian financial system,...
... Moreover, timely adjustments may allow the country to resume moderate economic growth within a year. Iran demonstrates that the repercussions of sanctions cannot be neutralized in full, whether short-term or long-term. However, Tehran managed to minimize sanctions pressure in the critical sectors of its economy. There are reasons to believe that Russia will withstand the pressure, too. Russia’s principal indicators make it stronger than was Iran when the financial war began.
However, putting someone’s experience to good use requires careful studies....
... has little choice but to go for even greater rapprochement with China in the new foreign policy and socio-economic environment.
Against this background, Chinese business is perceived as a force capable of bridging the gap with the West for the Russian economy. But is it all so clear-cut? Will these expectations be justified? Let’s find out.
Cautiousness of Big Business
Ivan Timofeev:
Ukrainian Crisis. Who Has the Upper Hand?
Amid unprecedented sanctions the West has imposed on Russia, big business faces many and varied challenges, as Ambassador Zhang Hanhui pointed out in his speech. Therefore, business tends to take a wait-and-see attitude, if not stop operating in this difficult situation ...
... to the level prior to the restoration of U.S. sanctions. It was immediately after the nuclear deal became effective and the sanctions against Iran were lifted in 2016 that exports
hit
a recent-year record high at $2.6 billion. While EAEU 2020 exports ... ... billion. This is significant, as for the previous ten years imports had not exceeded $1 billion. In other words, the Iranian economy benefited significantly more from the establishment of the FTA than the EAEU, at least during the initial stages of the ...
Although sanctions have affected the Russian economy, it continues to grow and become resilient towards increased trade barriers
Since 2014, Russian and American diplomacy has been defined by economic sanctions. This has become the default, expected option for U.S. policymakers—but Russia has ...
... exacerbated relations with the West since 2014 [Afontsev 2015; Bartenev 2018], although the U.S. policy of imposing unilateral restrictions was previously studied as well (see, for instance, [Shakirov 2011]). Russian scholars studied relations between sanctions and the global economy [Simonov 2015] and investigated sanctions as a foreign policy instrument [Baluyev 2014], the effect of sanctions on the Russian economy [Gurvich, Prilepsky 2016], the relations between sanctions and investment in Russian regions [Kuznetsova 2016],...
Policy Brief #33 / 2020
On September 30, 2020, the Russian Federation and the Republic of Korea celebrated the 30th anniversary of establishing diplomatic relations. This is a good occasion to look back at the achievements, taking into account miscalculations and problems in bilateral cooperation, as well as to assess the prospects for further collaboration.
An objective look at the journey the two countries have travelled over these years shows that the Moscow–Seoul dialogue has demonstrated generally...
... aid to Damascus
The ninth year of internal armed conflict has brought new challenges to Syria. According to
data from the United Nations Economic and Social Commission for Western Asia
published on September 23, 2020, the damage done to the Syrian economy by the end of 2019 exceeded USD 442 bn. Still, under sanctions and with no international consensus on how to finance recovery, the country has not only failed to overcome the acute economic crisis but has also been hit by the negative consequences of the coronavirus pandemic, compounded by an unstable situation ...
... possibility of non-sanctioned Lebanon acting as an intermediary, suggesting that China
invest in the Tripoli port
in order to transform it into a “hub” for entry into Syria, moot.
The potential of Abkhazia and Crimea, which have already been hit by sanctions, to act as intermediaries is objectively increasing. For instance, the
Agreement between the Council of Ministers of the Republic of Crimea and the Ministry of Economy and Foreign Trade of the Syrian Arab Republic on Trade and Economic Cooperation as part of plans to create a joint trading house to export grain and industrial products to Syria with payments to be made in roubles, and the
Agreement on Cooperation ...