... were developing and systematizing their own internal strategic priorities. Five rounds of talks between the GCC and Russian foreign ministers were held, covering topics such as international terrorism, political solutions to the crises in Iraq, Libya, Syria, and Yemen, and Russia’s ties to Iran, in light of the GCC states’ designation of Iran as the main regional threat, especially following the overthrow of Saddam Hussein. In addition to its military might, the GCC states expressed concern toward Iran’s ability to influence their Shiite ...
... cannot ignore the fact that Turkey recently held talks with Russia and Iran, allies that support the Bashar al-Assad regime. The words of Prime Minister of Turkey Binali Yıldırım, who called for “a new page” to be opened in the history of Syria – one that would involve Turkey, Iran, Russia, the United States, Saudi Arabia and the Persian Gulf states – have also caused a stir. He also stated, for the first time, that he would not be against al-Assad being involved in the political process during a “transitional period,...
... control from Afrin to Qamishli (about 70 per cent of the Syrian border with Turkey). By getting into Syria Turkey prevents the very idea of de-facto Kurdish-state in north of the country (following the model of Iraqi Kurdistan). This actually suits Russia, Iran and Syria. However, a main drawback of such development is intensification of the conflict between Syrian Kurds, represented by Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF), and Turkey-backed militants.
By getting into Syria Turkey prevents the very idea of de-facto Kurdish-state ...
... the two countries on Iran may not always remain a protected area. Moscow also has been looking with concern at the development of Iran’s medium-range missile program, but this concern is now rarely made public.
Cooperation and Competition in Syria
To Russia, Iran has been a valuable geopolitical ally in a number of areas, including Afghanistan, Syria, and the southern areas of the former Soviet Union. In Syria, Iran and its Hezbollah allies have provided forces on the ground in support of the government in ...
... possibilities for it. This is what the states in the region fear, especially in the absence of a regional security institution. However, Iran was one of the first states to immediately declare its position regarding the abortive military coup in Turkey, declaring ... ... failed, while the King of Saudi Arabia only broke the silence two days later.
Normalization of relations between Turkey and Russia means that
certain agreements on the Syrian crisis exist
. At this stage, Russia’s support for the Assad government remains unchanged. This suggests that Turkey ...
... Syrian authorities on issues of cooperation with Teheran since the Iranian military and Lebanon-based Hezbollah units are at least as important for the survival of Bashar Assad’s regime as the support of the Russian Military Space Forces. However, Russian representatives may well suggest to the Syrian leader that it would make sense not to provoke the neighbour and to keep the Iranian units away from the border.
REUTERS/Nir Elias
Alexander Krylov:
The Strategic Partnership between Turkey
and Israel
One has to bear in mind that Moscow has direct contact with Iran and could act as a mediator, for example, by discussing with ...
... hours. However, rebels ignored the agreement and conducted a major offensive against government-controlled towns underpinning the limits of international negotiators’ control on the ground.
Russian Defense Ministry Press Service
Andrey Kortunov:
Russians and Arabs:
in Search of a New Modus Vivendi
As a result of the offensive Iran suffered one of the largest single-day losses in Syria with IRGC losing 13 soldiers, having 18 more wounded and at least 6 captured by the rebels. According to the officials in Tehran Iranian soldiers were caught off guard by the rebels amidst the ceasefire that had announced in the area one day before ...
... effectiveness of the operation would be decreasing the longer it goes on. Having weighed all pros and cons the Russian leadership likely opted to scale back its military presence before these vulnerabilities get discovered.
The changing dynamic of the Russia-Iran alliance
The survival of the Syrian government with Assad as the president is paramount to Russia in mid-term, even if the allies disagree on key issues, such as the military strategy and the ceasefire deal.
The withdrawal of excess forces by Russia was welcomed both by Damascus ...
... of the interests of Syrian groups and the external actors that will use the groups to wield their influence), as well as the only chance to preserve the country’s integrity.
Finally, withdrawal may offer a sort of a lesson for Iran. As of now, Russia is doing all the dirty work in Syria while Iran is failing to fulfill its commitments and is not building up its
contingent
. Hence, the Syrian forces are not able to wage a full-fledged war, dragging Moscow into a protracted conflict. Moreover, Tehran, whose interests Moscow is also defending ...
... regional elites is the statement of a Qatari royal family member, who in a private discussion recently lamented that the Gulf monarchies increasingly feel sidelined in the handling of all key regional matters, as they had not been consulted either on the Russian operation in Syria or on the U.S. talks with Iran. Since regional elites have a clear understanding neither of the final aims of the Russian presence nor of U.S. policies, the atmosphere has become permeated with nervousness, unpredictability and high risks. All of this may drive them into steps ...
