... impact on the future potential agreement between the US and Iran.
New deal, new terms?
Ivan Timofeev:
USA vs. JCPOA: How Can Russia and China Respond?
It is presumed that many decisions in the administration of J. Biden will be made and implemented by ... ... year” which “then sets the stage for negotiation over a follow-on agreement.“ He also suggested that the US could ease sanctions in 2021 in exchange for Iran’s
return
to compliance with its obligations. After the Trump administration withdrew from the Joint Comprehensive Plan ...
... debating the prospects for Russia and Iran attaining a “balance of influence” in light of the results of the upcoming presidential elections in the United States. It is predicted that, if Donald Trump prevails, Iranian potential will remain hampered by sanctions, while a Joe Biden victory might cause Washington to return to the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (nuclear deal) and, as a consequence, strengthen Iranian economic presence in Syria. Is it any surprise then that the active exchange of delegations between Russia and Syria in September and October 2020 (the visit to Damascus by Co-Chair of the Permanent Russian-Syrian Intergovernmental Commission on Trade, Economic, Scientific and Technical Cooperation (IGC) Yuri Borisov and Minister of Foreign Affairs ...
... current situation gives rise to uncertainty about the further development of the situation, including the supply of weapons to Iran. In theory, any state can sell such supplies. In practice, there will be few people or companies willing to sell weapons to Iran due to fears of secondary US sanctions. An exception can be made by two countries: China and Russia. China may raise the issue of military deals with Iran, given the growing pressure from Washington on Beijing. The very fact of raising such a question, which is quite legitimate from the point of view of international law, will be an argument ...
... government” and the Syrian Democratic Forces.
Possible Responses of Damascus to the Caesar Act
Complicated Relations with Iran and Russia
It is no secret that Damascus has to manoeuvre between Moscow and Tehran, as they pursue different interests. Iran banks on proxy militias as it advances its influence “beyond the Syrian state” as part of its anti-Israel “Shia Crescent” project. These actions open up the Syrians to U.S. sanctions and make them a target of Israel’s surgical strikes. They also allow Tehran to claim a special role in the reconstruction ...
... and China will be cautious about arms sales, as well as quite reluctant to confront the US. Moscow and Beijing know that the US is sensitive to this issue, and even if the arms embargo is lifted, the US will apply unilateral sanctions. Violating these sanctions, thus, would be highly costly for Russia and China. Therefore, they will not jeopardize their interests by engaging with Iran and confronting the US. Simultaneously, some interests, including strengthening of balance, increasing chips' bargaining against the US, and taking advantage of Iran's arms market, are likely to keep their motivation alive to sell arms to Tehran....
... [
v
]. The EU authorities made declarations about the need for humanitarian exceptions [
vi
]. In the United States, Democratic candidate Joe Biden spoke about this as well [
vii
]. The US administration promptly released a list of exceptions to its sanctions, many of which were in place long before the pandemic. They concern Iran, Syria, Cuba, North Korea, Venezuela and Russia [
viii
]. A joint US-Swiss relief supply channel for Iran has become operational [
ix
]. We saw the first transactions based on INSTEX, a long-awaited channel for humanitarian transactions with Iran created by Great Britain, France and Germany ...
... to be involved in this conflict of two powers
The escalation of tensions between Iran and the USA in January 2020 has once again raised the question of what positions... ... remained politically committed to the “Nuclear Deal”. Nevertheless, in obedience to US sanctions, E3 showed their inability to oppose the United States or lobby for a solution... ... transportation and naval escort to tankers, which has a negative impact on the market.
Russia: watching from the sidelines
For Russia, the US withdrawal from the “nuclear...
... concern for the custodian of the global reserve currency.
New World Begets a New Bank
As a default mode, China should also beware that “the sanctioned objects in the mirror are closer than they appear.” In other words, China may also be a subject to sanctions at one point partially or fully.
Tristan Kenderdine:
US–Iran Conflict Would Strengthen China’s Position in the Middle East
China, Russia, India, Brazil, and South Africa are the founding members of the
New Development Bank
. NDB’s 2017–2021 general strategy clearly highlights the bank’s commitment and intention to be new in three areas: 1) new relationships; 2) new projects ...
... the new political system will look like. Will Washington be able to keep this process under its control? Or maybe the regime that emerges will be much more hostile and impulsive?
Ignoring these risks can have dire consequences. In any case, the new sanctions war against Iran has been unleashed, and there is no way of stopping it.
Author: Ivan Timofeev is Programme Director of the Valdai Discussion Club, Director of Programs at Russian International Affairs Council (RIAC).
First published in
Valdai Discussion Club
.
... when entering the Strait off the coast of Fujairah. On June 13, this time near the Iranian coast, two more tankers flying the flags of the Marshall Islands and Panama... ... of another exacerbation in U.S.–Iran relations and the United States imposing more sanctions on Tehran.
Nobody has claimed responsibility for either of the incidents.... ... not to mention liquefied natural gas from Qatar, the world’s second-largest (after Russia) exporter of natural gas. Multiple predictions were made concerning the possible...
