Pessimism of Reason and Optimism of Will. The Arab World the Day After Tomorrow

... will emerge by the end of this period (by around 2030) will probably exist for several decades (30–50 years) before the Middle East again plunges into chaos, the aftermath of which will have to be sorted out by new generations. Thus, the arithmetic ... ... This means that the second possible forecasting horizon is approximately 2050. For all the vagueness with regard to the distant future, some things can already be discussed with a fair degree of certainty. Socioeconomic Determinants Within a few decades,...