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On July 28, 2020, Russian International Affairs Council (RIAC) together with the Center for Political Research, Ministry of Foreign Affairs of Israel, with the support of the Embassy of Israel in Russia held a closed online seminar “Assessing the Middle East conflicts (Lebanon, Iraq and Libya). View from Russia and Israel”. The event was attended by leading experts and diplomats from Russia and Israel.
The seminar was divided into two sessions: "Political instability in Lebanon and Iraq: View from Russia and Israel" ...
... assistance of The Shaikh Group political consultancy, the ordinary virtual expert meeting on security issues in Mashreq region took place.
The following issues were discussed during the meeting: the role of external players in conflict situations in Iraq, Syria, and Lebanon. Russia was represented at the meeting by Andrey Kortunov, RIAC Director General, and Irina Zvyagelskaya, RIAC Expert, Head of the Center for the Middle East Studies at RAS IMEMO.
... escalate pressure on Iran using Europe as a springboard for further sanctions on Tehran and Iran would probably consider future moves using its proxy agents similar to Abqaiq refinery attack in Aramco.
Political instability will continue to hit the Middle East region. While the protests in Iraq and Lebanon will continue to achieve their goals with international support. Many demonstrations will be fuelled in other Middle Eastern states starting from Iran, Turkey, Egypt, Algeria, and some Gulf nations. As pro-Iran forces control Iraq and Lebanon,...
... Saudi Arabia, Iran, and the EU.
Syria
with Russian and Iranian management on the ground, and benevolence from Turkey, experiences successful reconstruction – first by China, soon followed up by the EU. The Baath party continues, with new leaders.
Lebanon
is stabilized and becomes again “the Switzerland of the Middle East”.
Kurdish
areas may experience their own future, or a future joint with Syria/Iraq, respectively. With the US support, they can remain in a very independent position but without state-recognition. As such, they can continue, but may languish, being “sandwiched” between Turkey and Syria/Iraq. Alternatively, with effective guarantees,...