... so happened: Russia was walking (and even pushed) to the Oreshnik launch for quite a long time. Without going too deep into history, there are two main factors worth focusing on.
In 2019, the Treaty on Intermediate-Range and Shorter-Range Missiles (INF Treaty) met its demise. After that, Russia unilaterally imposed a moratorium on the deployment of such systems. However, all this time, the United States has been actively developing, testing and even temporarily deploying missiles of this class, ...
... put on an unprecedented ten-year-long hold, but this pause seemed to be drawing to a close.
Not only did the Trump Administration draw this pause out, but it also actively embarked on destroying the arms control system. In 2019, the U.S. denounced the INF Treaty, paving the way for deploying hypersonic missiles in Eastern Europe, with short flight-time to Moscow. The Administration destroyed the Open Skies Treaty in 2020, threatening to withdraw from the Test Ban Treaty (CTBT) and refusing to prolong ...
With the INF Treaty collapsed and Russian proposals to prevent another missile confrontation in Europe possibly rejected, the logical thing to do would be to deploy the revised “Pioneer” missile in response to the new “Pershings” and “Gryphons”
Who ...
... should such systems be deployed in the proximity of Russia. The same relates to the new INF systems, which are being quickly developed by the U.S. In Germany there is already a revived NATO military infrastructure, closed in the aftermath of the 1987 INF treaty, and designed for operating INF systems. In the eyes of Moscow there is a high probability of a new Euromissile crisis exploding in two to three years if Russia’s proposals for a moratorium are not responded to in a rational way. Nuclear ...
... confine themselves to the question of medium-range missiles, then it is their business with the Chinese. What we need to do regarding such missiles is promote the moratorium that Putin recently proposed: missiles that were banned under the denounced 1987 INF Treaty should not be deployed in the European part of Russia and in the rest of Europe. For verification Putin suggested introducing on-site inspections. This, of course, is very different from the INF Treaty. Nonetheless, it is a basis for an agreement....
... START
That’s about how the approaches of Russian analysts were divided a year ago, when light clouds in the area of arms control turned into an actual storm, that is, when the theoretical prospect of the Trump administration’s withdrawal from the INF Treaty became a political reality. Those who advocated saving the treaty at any cost and by any means found themselves at one extreme. The proponents of the INF Treaty said terminating it would result in a multitude of grave ramifications, like triggering ...
This article is part of the Russia-EU: Promoting Informed Dialogue project supported by the European Union in Russia.
The 50-year-old arms control regime that helped keep the Cold War cold is beyond repair. It's time to begin discussing ways of moving toward a new global strategic regime.
Donald Trump is often accused of being utterly unpredictable. Yet on a number of issues he has demonstrated a high degree of consistency. Arms control is a prime example.
In 2017, Trump delivered on his promise...
.... A strengthened cooperation in the air component, though, can significantly expand capabilities of France’s strategic aviation, of course, on jet fighters, but it is what it is.
Andrey Kortunov:
Four Pieces of Advice to Emmanuel Macron about the INF Treaty
It may be tempting to disperse to multiple airfields across Europe during a heightened threat, but this would require the ground personnel of allied countries to undergo necessary trainings, including in the use of ASMP-A missiles, which is ...
... Washington Hope to Achieve? And What Are the Possible Implications of Its Decision?
The Treaty Between the United States of America and the Union of Soviet Socialist Republics on the Elimination of Their Intermediate-Range and Shorter-Range Missiles (INF Treaty) was a cornerstone of the system of bilateral arms control agreements and a key factor in maintaining the fragile balance in the nuclear forces of the two countries. The withdrawal of the United States from the INF Treaty will lead to the collapse ...
Disarmament Expert and former French diplomat Marc Finaud on Nuclear Terrorism and Arms Control
Marc Finaud is Senior Advisor and Head of 'Arms Proliferation' at the Geneva Centre for Security Policy (GCSP). He is a former French diplomat who has been seconded to the Geneva Centre for Security Policy (GCSP) between 2004 and 2013 and now works for this international foundation, where he trains diplomats and military officers in international and human security, and conducts research in those fields...
