Dmitriy Trenin: Trump’s announcement of a naval blockade of the Strait of Hormuz, following the failure of the first round of negotiations, amounted to a case of complete strategic incoherence
For a long time, when speaking of how European countries had, over the course of 75 years of U.S. hegemony, lost the ability to think and act strategically, it still assumed that such capabilities remained inherent to the hegemon—the United States of America. The U.S.-Israeli war in Iran calls this assumption...
... raising critical questions about the sustainability of its strategic dominance.
At the center of this unfolding crisis stands Donald Trump, whose decision to escalate tensions with Iran—reportedly during a sensitive phase of diplomatic engagement—has ... ... potential consequences.
Leaders in Turkey have openly criticized the escalation, framing it as destabilizing for the broader Middle East.
Officials in Pakistan have emphasized the need for diplomacy and warned against actions that could trigger wider ...
... differences with the European Union and internal strains within NATO mean that Washington cannot count on unconditional Western unity. Many European states, still grappling with economic pressures and security fatigue, are unlikely to support another Middle Eastern war.
Domestic Politics: A Powerful Restraint
Ivan Timofeev:
JCPOA Crisis: Balance of Power Returns
Domestic political realities in both the United States and Israel are acting as powerful brakes on military adventurism.
In the U.S., President Donald Trump faces intense scrutiny ahead of the November mid-term elections. Public appetite for another overseas conflict is low, and bipartisan skepticism about unilateral military action is growing. Large-scale protests, political polarization, and ...
The recent U.S. strikes on Iran’s nuclear infrastructure mark a notable recalibration of Washington’s Middle East policy
The recent U.S. strikes on Iran’s nuclear infrastructure mark a notable recalibration of Washington’s Middle East policy. In recent years, the United States has sought to avoid direct involvement in armed conflicts. While maintaining ...
... engagement, with significant repercussions for both regional and global stability
Introduction
The United States, under President Donald Trump, has consistently followed a foreign policy that challenges traditional diplomatic practices and questions the settled ... ... policy approach appears more assertive, concentrated, and resolute which may disturb the geopolitics of Europe, Asia and the Middle East. Nonetheless, recent indications from Washington, including the declaration of a possible U.S. occupation of Gaza,...
... of the Israeli-Palestinian escalation on strategic priorities of these states. The predominant assumption in Moscow is that the progress in Abraham Accords will continue though at a slower speed than it did before the Gaza crisis. On the other hand, Donald Trump may be ready to invest more of his political capital into the Abraham Accords than his predecessor in the White House did. Of course, a Middle East NATO uniting major Gulf Arab states and Israel in their common deterrence of Iran is the last thing that Moscow would like to see emerging in the region, but Russian experts take a rather
skeptical view
on the ability or political will of ...
... against the US and play its own geopolitical games freely and independently. Besides, Ankara made it clear that it is ready to play a «bigger» and more significant role in regional affairs than ever.
Conclusions
The expected re-election of US President Donald Trump will continue to have profound implications on the Middle East, and the inability to predict Western actions in the region and the profound absence of a coherent policy will affect regional actors such as Turkey, Iran and Israel. Thus, the Gulf is slated to explode even without war on Iran because the ...
... for Moscow.
The withdrawal of American forces from Syria is said to be a gift to Russia. As the sole power from outside the Middle East with military forces and political influence in Syria, Russia may indeed become the security manager in that country.... ... long been observed that Americans create problems both when they move into foreign countries and when they leave. President Donald Trump’s decision to abandon the US’s Kurdish allies certainly invited the Turks to intervene on a larger scale than ...
The wave of violence caused by Trump’s decision will be difficult to stop, as the U.S. President does not back down from his word
The recent decision of President Donald Trump with regard to Jerusalem is just one more surprise in the endless series of surprises in the Middle East. Numerous analysts overlook the fact that there are actually two separate parts to the decision, which has proved fateful for the Middle East. It is a double toe loop. The first part is about recognizing the whole of Jerusalem as the capital ...
... ongoing media frenzy, America seems deeply divided over whether to pursue a hard line with Russia or to cooperate with it. With Donald Trump favoring the latter course, Moscow “voted” for him in the 2016 elections. But the Kremlin’s cybernetic interference ... ... question of US future policies remains open. Seeking answers requires a fundamental reexamination of Washington’s 21st century Middle East wars, where at every turn Russian-American relations formed the hidden context. The story began in 2001-2002, when ...
