... success of the late 20th and early 21st centuries was built. Following its geopolitical victory in Uzbekistan, which will in future retrospect appear Pyrrhic, China will after mid-century begin a definite and irremediable decline, beginning gradually and then accelerating as other powers ... ... of climate change continuing at non-critical rates of change, the Eurasian-level effects of technological change would be to Russia’s energy production advantage, while at the regional Central Asian level, demographic change would continue to increase Kazakhstan’s influence at Uzbekistan’s expense....
... change scenarios are possible.
The Great Game and Future Borders in Central Asia
Photo: myrtopapadopoulos.com
Chinese truck on the way to Murghab, Tajikistan
We shall first consider the external factors. The geopolitical “centrality” of Central Asia
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and the regional nations’ need for outside aid have resulted in extensive interference by the great powers (China, Russia, the US, EU countries, India, etc.). And although this trend is likely to continue into the future, it does not have to lead to competition among great powers (the “new Great Game”). It is quite possible that they will collaborate in addressing key regional issues (such as terrorism, failed states or drug trafficking). The region ...
