While Assad’s visit to Moscow did not yield breakthrough agreements, it confirmed the importance of the Syrian dossier for Russia, contrary to the claims that Moscow is slackening its focus on Syria
Syrian President Bashar Assad arrived in Moscow on March 14, 2023, for talks with his Russian counterpart—bringing along a representative
delegation
(almost all the key ministers in the government: foreign affairs, defense, economy, etc.), which is indicative of the ...
What kind of Syria would we like to see and might we see by March 2031?
On 6 March 2011, the local security services in the small town of Daraa, southern Syria, detained fifteen teenagers painting anti-government graffiti on fences and buildings. During the subsequent interrogations, the teens were allegedly subjected to unjustifiably cruel treatment and even torture. Since all the detainees were born to prominent local families, their relatives and friends soon came to the police station to demand...
It takes a strong state, suppressing political violence, and a legitimate authority to succeed in combating the consequences of military conflicts in the Middle East during a pandemic
The question of the political and socioeconomic consequences the COVID-19 pandemic will have for global development has prompted heated analytical discussions among leading politicians, economists and political scientists. The range of opinions is staggering, varying from “the world will never be the same” (Henry...
Framing a quid pro quo in Syria
After more than eight years of conflict in Syria, it is now clear that there won’t be a near-term political transition away from Bashar al-Assad. This is a reality that Europeans, by and large, now accept. This does not mean, however, that Europeans are prepared to re-engage with Syria’s new landscape without conditions. On the contrary, European policy remains focused on the need to secure still meaningful gains and European tools, including sanctions, reconstruction...
Putin’s Syrian intervention was limited to areas around the port of Tartus and the Latakia air base, both heavily upgraded by Russia. His aim was not a full occupation, but a gradual expansion of a strategic corridor from Damascus to Aleppo. He did not fear US repercussions. Obama’s 2013 red line back-step had convinced him the president would be passive in the face of aggression. One hour before the intervention began, Obama was haughtily advised to clear the air spaces. Putin did not attempt to...
... dictatorships in Iraq and Libya generated jihadist chaos and political disintegration and worsened Washington’s relations with Moscow, which felt misled into supporting the Libyan intervention. The result was the intensification of Russian support for Bashar Assad’s beleaguered regime in Syria. In 2013, when Obama reneged on his chemical weapon red line in Syria, Putin got a first-hand indication of what “strategic patience” really meant. Thus, when Moscow’s corrupt client, Ukrainian president ...
The central issue of Wednesday's meetings in Moscow was whether Russia would give in. An immediate change of policy was obviously not on the cards since it is not in Putin's nature to make sudden concessions under pressure. But will he gradually and incrementally pull the rug from under the Syrian president?
According to Russian experts in Moscow, there are multiple reasons why the Kremlin will not. They range from concerns about future chaos in Syria in the aftermath of regime change to the damage...
Within three days of a bizarre chemical gas poisoning incident in Khan Sheikhoun, Syria, the United States ratcheted up its global judge, jury and executioner role by firing a salvo of Tomahawk missiles on a Syrian airbase that was used to combat Daesh terrorists. No due process or investigation was sought; not even a declaration of war that can only be sanctioned by Congress – something President Donald J. Trump had reminded his predecessor Barack Obama over the latter’s policy of unilateral military...
The Crisis Group recently released a
briefing
on Russia’s partial pull-back of forces from Syria, its implications on the ceasefire as well as on Moscow’s wider strategy in this conflict. Analyzing Russia’s latest actions in Syria, including the ceasefire deal and partial withdrawal of forces, most experts (as well as the Crisis Group report) draw a conclusion that Moscow has separated Assad’s future from that of Syria. Many agree that while Russia has stabilized the government...
Interests and opportunities
The Middle East has always had a special meaning for Russia. The area provides access to the Mediterranean Sea, linking Russia with the countries of the Eastern Mediterranean, the Middle East, North Africa. Any threat of war, a concentration of foreign armies, civil wars in the states located there, conflicts and terrorist attacks can cause concern to Russia, given that the border around the perimeter of the former Soviet Union is not well fortified, and the flow of radical...
