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Why Russia Must Pressure Libya to Reduce its Oil Production

On July 23, 2017, Russia’s Energy Minister Alexander Novak told the Financial Times that Libya should join the oil supply production cut agreement brokered by Moscow and OPEC last December. Russia’s decision to target Libya, alongside Nigeria and US shale gas, surprised some observers, as Moscow retains tight links to military chieftain ...

07.08.2017 01:59:31

Russia-Libya Cooperation and Counter-Terrorism

On April 27, 2016, General Valery Gerasimov, the chief of the Russian General Staff, declared that Libya barely existed as a state and was a breeding ground for jihadist networks, like the Islamic State. To justify his grim assessment, Gerasimov accused the United States of using democracy promotion as a pretext to destabilize the Middle East. He highlighted ...

02.06.2016 00:21:00

Nuclear geopolitics. Shifting sands along Africa’s Uranium Road

... its military presence throughout its remote southern desert regions. Senior government officials speaking to the media described the move as a “sovereign decision.” Niger shares common borders with Algeria and Mali. It sits just below Libya and to the east of Mali. Algeria has been experiencing problems in the refugee camps controlled by the Polisario Front and located in its remote southeastern Tindouf region. Some news reports claim the camps, which contain upwards of 95,000 refugees,...

19.02.2014 18:44:00

Proliferation And The Psychopathology of Prohibition

... governments who engage in WMD commerce to use it as a bargaining chip for other objectives. In spite of four Nobel Peace Prizes (Bunche, Arafat, Rabin, Peres), one of the big drivers of terrorism continues to be the destruction of the State of Israel. Libya and Palestine are cases where opportunistic leaders have helped drive that issue. While Washington spent around $3 trillion on its decade long war in Iraq the four decade presence of Moammar Gaddafi and Yassir Arafat on the world scene has probably ...

30.10.2013 07:12:00

The Oxymoronic Déjà Vu of Humanitarian Bombing in Syria

In light of the recent developments in Syria and the apparently imminent US military intervention, the blog will take a short break from its relatively academic style and its thematic focus in order to brainstorm and share some thoughts on the broader picture of what is happening in the geopolitical arena of the region. Dangerous Double Standards Bashar al-Assad has reportedly used chemical weapons to attack, essentially, his own people. The first, logically obvious question is why would Assad essentially...

07.09.2013 14:04:00

Responsibility to Protect and Syria

... there is a strong possibility that military intervention can only make the situation in Syria worse, and can end up bringing more harm than good. The prospects for a successful military intervention in Syria are much less promising than they were in Libya. According to the estimates of the International Institute for Strategic Studies, in 2009 Syria’s military force was four times larger than Libya’s and it was much better equipped. Moreover, Syrian opposition is not unified, like it ...

21.05.2013 21:18:00

Six Criteria for Military Intervention: Proportional Means and Reasonable Prospect

... forces to an operation will have a better idea of what personnel to send and will be more cooperative once they know what to expect on the ground. Recent events highlight the importance of having a clear mandate. During voting on resolution 1973 on Libya, Russia remarked that the resolution didn’t provide any clarity on how the no-fly zone would be enforced, the rules of engagement, and what limits on the use of force there would be.[1] As a result, both Russia and China abstained from voting ...

02.11.2012 04:52:00

Six Criteria for Military Intervention: Just Cause and Right Intention

... measures to ensure the safety of civilians[1]. A massive military intervention was needed to halt atrocities, but the Security Council and UN Member States were incapable of responding to the realities on the ground.[2] While on the other hand, we have Libya with 1,000 – 3,000 casualties and with coalition forces intervening in that country within 3 days of adopting resolution 1973[3] – where the UN Security Council condemned war crimes and crimes against humanity in that country and authorized ...

30.10.2012 22:02:00

Six Criteria for Military Intervention: Last Resort

... the UN observer mission, a GA resolution, and presidential statements to condemn the violence, but these still have not been able to halt the protracted massacre. The civilian casualty count in Syria continues to rise with each passing day. While in Libya, military intervention occurred just two weeks after having instated non-military means through the unanimously adopted resolution 1970, which wasn’t able to end the mass violence in that time. This decisive action, in an attempt to prevent ...

29.10.2012 03:36:00

Politicization of the United Nations: the Human Cost

... How do we know that military intervention is necessary in a given case? What must the death toll rise to in a conflict before the international community decides that they must intervene? Why is it that we chose the course of intervention in the case Libya, but weren’t effectively able to do so in cases like Rwanda, Bosnia and Syria? How do we guarantee that a decision to intervene is a just one – that the objective does not lead to the use of intervention to further the selfish political ...

30.09.2012 16:29:00

Russia’s Reasons for UN Veto

... resolution on Syria is the sign that the international community should just give the Syrians a chance to decide the future of Syria on their own. It is too early to draw any conclusions, but even though it seems that humanitarian intervention worked out in Libya, we still should keep in mind that Syria is a much more complex and troubled country. The intervention may shed even more blood and create even bigger chaos. May be it is better if the Syrians themselves without any help try to build a new nation....

20.07.2012 14:10:00

2012 Failed States Index

... more violence that would lead to the increase of Group Grievance’s score or they might affect the economic decline. It implies that humanitarian interventions might lead to a drastic increase in county’s score. Let’s take a look at Libya. According to FSI 2011 (the Index is based on the data from 2010) Libya scored 68,7 and after military intervention in 2011 it drastically increased its score to 84,9. Once again, the lower the score, the better. So, if before the country was steadily ...

15.07.2012 16:11:00

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  1. In your opinion, what are the US long-term goals for Russia?
    U.S. wants to establish partnership relations with Russia on condition that it meets the U.S. requirements  
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    U.S. wants to deter Russia’s military and political activity  
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    U.S. wants to dissolve Russia  
     24 (22%)
    U.S. wants to establish alliance relations with Russia under the US conditions to rival China  
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