Interview
Georgia will hold presidential elections on October 27, and it is common knowledge that under Mikheil Saakashvili, the relations between Moscow and Tbilisi have been quite tense. We asked Nana Gegelashvili, Head of the Center for Regional Studies at the Institute for the U.S. and Canadian Studies, RAS, to comment on possible changes in Georgian foreign policy and prospects for Russia-Georgia dialogue after the elections.
Interview
Georgia will hold presidential elections on October 27, and it is common knowledge that under Mikheil Saakashvili, the relations between Moscow and Tbilisi have been quite tense. We asked Nana Gegelashvili, Head of the Center for Regional Studies at the Institute for the U.S. and Canadian Studies, RAS, to comment on possible changes in Georgian foreign policy and prospects for Russia-Georgia dialogue after the elections.
Dr. Gegelashvili, what changes do you expect in the Russian-Georgian relations after the elections?
On the whole, the bilateral relations will gradually get back to normal. The new government seems committed to pragmatism, which is likely to result in normalizing the relations with Moscow driven both by common sense and practical considerations.
Currently, Tbilisi appears to be sure that improvement of relations with Russia represents the only opportunity to bring the rebellious republics back to Georgia. The choice of a perfectly balanced and pragmatic approach toward Moscow is also shored up by the Russian capital allocated in Georgia and clear understanding of numerous advantages of the Russian market.
Another factor that might foster stabilization of the bilateral relations lies in Tbilisi's awareness of the difficulties en route to the NATO membership and the absolute uncertainty about the accession schedule, among other things, due to the U.S. financial troubles.
However, Tbilisi is also fully aware of the fact that the Georgian society is not ready to abandon its former autonomies in exchange for better relations with Russia.
Hence, the Russia-Georgia dialogue will be quite narrow, at least initially. In order to expand it, the two parties should continue the recently launched discussion of economic issues and common challenges, such as radical islamism in the Northern Caucasus. The solution of this conundrum is a key to Russia’s security on the Caucasian track, as well as a potentially effective tool for building trust between the two states.
So, if we want to guarantee the bilateral normalization, we currently need to define the nature of existing ties and common challenges. Russia should do its best to this end and put forward proposals for constructive cooperation with Georgia in the new environment.
How do you see Georgia's current role in the Caucasus? In what way could its influence change after the elections?
Georgia has always been immensely important for the region, first of all due to its highly advantageous geopolitical position that cannot be underestimated as it also determines the country’s key role in the South Caucasus.
Nevertheless, the increase of Tbilisi’s role and influence after the elections will depend on how efficiently Moscow arranges the bilateral relationship at the new stage, as well as on the consistency of Washington’s policy toward Georgia in view of the financial crisis. Anyway, the solution of economic problems is far more important for the United States than its policies in the Caucasus.
From your perspective, what Georgia’s forthcoming foreign policy priorities will be like?
I do not expect major changes in its foreign policy. Rapprochement with NATO and other Euro-Atlantic structures is essentially irreversible, as Moscow failed to guarantee Georgian security at one time. As a result, the new government will proceed with the existing policies aimed at the integration with the EU and NATO membership. Not coincidentally, as soon as next November, Georgia and the European Union are going to initial the association agreement at the Eastern Partnership summit. Georgia will also continue to participate in the Afghanistan operation despite some popular protest caused by military losses.
Interviewer: Darya Khaspekova, RIAC Program Coordinator
