Russia and a new medium of space research

Russia and the USA as major nuclear powers are destined to have a similar system of space priorities. The last shuttle flight means for Russia not only the increased economic pressure from the USA but the emergence of new prospects for conquering an outer space.

The middle of 2011 became a milestone in the development of cosmonautics. By that time four negative trends had emerged in the US. First, the US National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA) closed the program of reusable flights of spaceships “Space-Shuttle” started in 1981. Second, the Obama Administration froze several long-term projects: programs of creating spaceships “Constellation” and “Orion”, rocket carriers “Ares I” and Ares V”. Third, operating American rocket carriers “Delta-4” and “Atlas-5” cannot currently put into orbit manned spaceships. Fourth, the only means of carrying out piloted flights to the International Space Station (ISS) are still Russian “Soyuz” spaceships.

Manned space programs too are going through difficult times. In accordance with the 2011 Budget Message it was planned to allocate 19 billion dollars to NASA and increase the agency’s budget by six billion dollars by 2015. However, the 2011 budget plan did not clarify three sets of issues. How will the NASA’s government centers which were designed to control piloted space flights be used during these five years? Will the American astronauts retain the status of public servants or will they become employees of private enterprises (which may take over the “Orion” and “Constellation” projects?) Is NASA going to take part in the modernization of rocket carriers of commercial companies which earlier participated in the program of cargo delivery missions to the ISS? This uncertainty has given rise to a tide of publications on the crisis or perhaps even an end to American supremacy in space.

Such a pessimistic forecast seems to be premature. Washington remains an unquestionable leader in the number and quality of space instruments, implementation of near and deep space projects, development of military space programs. The United States is the only country in the world possessing a comprehensive global system of space navigation and communication “NAVSTAR-GPS”. NASA retains the status of the designated ISS manager. American companies continue to be the leaders in space telecommunication. Though Russia, China and the European Space Agency (ESA) might be ahead of the US in certain space projects, in the next 10-15 years they are unlikely to catch up with the US both in terms of the number of space assets and scope of tasks to be implemented.

So, what causes concern then? On January 14, 2004 the administration of George Bush Jr. proclaimed a new large-scale program of space exploration: the creation of new generation spaceships, the launch of comprehensive Moon and Mars research projects (including manned flights towards these space objects) and expanded exploration of outer space. The 2006 “US National Space Policy” stipulated the expansion of military activity in space: development of the space component of antimissile defense (ABM), including anti-satellite weapons. In 2009 President Obama proposed to shift the emphasis on to the development of innovative projects of near space exploration including manned flights towards large asteroids. The substantiation for these programs was the necessity to respond to Chinese success in manned space flights and the development of anti-satellite systems. However, the experts have labeled these projects as “the second space race” similar to fierce Soviet-American competition in space in the 1960s.

The shutdown of the programs of mid-2000s has placed NASA in a difficult position. There is a feeling that Washington “cannot afford” the self-proclaimed “second space race”. There is also doubt about the technical feasibility of NASA projects. The projects “Constellation” and “Orion” were developed on the basis of “Apollo” spaceships and the “Space Shuttle” system, Martian vehicles and Martian modules – on the basis of lunar research modules of the late 1960s, programs of manned and unmanned space stations –- on the basis of unsuccessful “Sky Lab” orbital station project. The current level of development of missile and space technology is still unable to provide the required technological support to the old engineering designs (or such technological support is still inefficient from the point of view of financial expenses and expected outcomes).

The analysis of more serious trends pinpoints NASA’s difficulties: the “second space race” is being implemented without the development of qualitatively new generation of missile and space technologies. Having obtained access to Russian technological resources, China launched a manned spaceship (2003) started a program of lunar research (2007) and tested anti-satellite weapons (2007). Latin American countries began to build different types of satellites and Brazil created its own sub-orbital rocket carrier. East Asian states, India, Australia and New Zealand are actively developing rocket and missile engineering in order to create different types of rocket carriers and telecommunications satellites. However, these projects are just an attempt to repeat the way of development of missile and space programs of the USSR and USA of the last third of the 20th century. So far progress in space exploration has been connected with the spread of Soviet and American space technologies.

The Russian space program is also developing along similar lines. The Roscosmos budget grew from 9.07 billion rubles in 2002 to 103.03 billion rubles in 2010. Yet Russian space priorities almost replicate NASA programs. The projects of long-term manned transport system and the modular type rocket carrier “Angara” are similar to “Constellation” and “Orion” programs, the “Moon-Glob” -- to NASA programs of detailed mapping of the Moon, programs “Mars-500” and “Fobos–Grunt” – to US Martian projects. In 2016 the Russian project “Venus-D” is to resume the mapping of the surface of Venus carried out by the American station “Magellan” in 1989-1994. The Russian GLONASS system of satellite positioning is paralleled to the American “NAVSTAR-GPS”. Roscosmos has more modest financial resources than NASA but despite that its space programs develop as an alternative to American priorities in space.

Such a situation can be explained by objective reasons. After 1991 the United States became the leader in setting priorities of space programs. Until today Russia and the US remain the only countries capable of producing the whole set of missile and space technologies and carrying out research in all currently available segments of space. (China, despite the success of its space program, does not have such a capability at the moment). Missile and space engineering initially developed as an integral part of mutual nuclear deterrent. Manned space flights demonstrate the ability of the superpowers to deliver a nuclear warhead to any point of the Earth; satellite groups serve strategic nuclear forces (SNF) and early warning systems of a missile attack (EWS), with probes in outer space laying the groundwork for the development of future space assault systems. Russia and the US as the leading nuclear powers are destined to have a similar system of space priorities.

However, the search for an alternative to American space priorities poses several challenges to Russia.

First, the role of near space exploration will increase in connection with the ongoing process of reduction of Russian and American strategic potentials. The strategic nuclear force (SNF) mutual reduction to 1,500 increases the danger of counterforce or decapitation strike. The EWS is going to play an increasing role in the SNF security system. This would require Russia to accelerate the completion of GLONASS and development of telecommunications systems.

Second, with the reduced space budget the USA will increasingly counteract Russia in the implementation of its space program. Washington willingly cooperates with Roscosmos and Russian commercial companies in those areas which are in line with American interests. However, American experts realize that in the foreseeable future only Russia will be able to produce the whole alternative range of missile and space technologies. Washington can compensate for its weakening position in space by increasing pressure on Russia and China (for instance, by imposing sanctions against some Russian companies accusing them of unfair competition or by toughening restrictions on dual technologies export).

Third, Russia should thoroughly examine outer space exploration projects. The reduction of NASA programs has demonstrated that America lacks technological resources for their realization. Has Russia got adequate resources? There is a need to hold a broad discussion on outer space research projects.

However, here lies one of the weakest points of Russian space programs. In contrast with the USA (and recently China) few professional papers on space research have been published in this country. The shelves of bookshops are filled with works in which the development of Soviet military-industrial complex is presented from either absurdly nihilistic or apologetic positions. Quality analysis of space development remains a prerogative of a narrow circle of professionals. Nor is there a broad discussion on space programs. However, lacking that, Russia is destined to look up to NASA priorities depending on American strategic engineering designs.