Poland under anti-Russian Eurosceptics

The Polish parliamentary election resulted in a victory for the conservative Law and Justice Party, whose representatives will now hold the posts of both President and Prime Minister. This means that relations with Russia, bad as they may be right now, could get even worse. And relations with the European Union and Germany look set to become more complicated.

The Polish parliamentary election resulted in a victory for the conservative Law and Justice Party, whose representatives will now hold the posts of both President and Prime Minister. This means that relations with Russia, bad as they may be right now, could get even worse. And relations with the European Union and Germany look set to become more complicated.

The elections held on October 25, 2015 saw more than 39 per cent of voters back the conservative Law and Justice Party (link in Polish). This gave it more than half the seats in parliament, thus enabling it to form a one-party government. The new head of government will be the party’s Vice-Chairperson Beata Szydlo, who will now run the country in tandem with her fellow party member, President Andrzej Duda. It is possible that both may be under the influence of former Prime Minister Jaroslaw Kaczynski, who led the part for many years.

The now former ruling party, the liberal-conservative Civil Platform led by ex-premier Ewa Kopacz won a mere 23 per cent of the vote. Other parties that won seats in parliament include populists from the Kukiz’15 led by former presidential candidate Pawel Kukiz (9 per cent), the new liberal party Modern (7 per cent) and the Polish People’s Party (a little over 5% per cent).

For the first time ever there will be no left-wing party in the Polish parliament. The United Left, which includes the left, greens and left-wing liberals, won nearly 7 per cent of the votes. However, under Polish law, an electoral alliance has to cross the 8 per cent barrier to get into parliament. The pro-Russian KORWIN party led by MEP Janusz Korwin-Mikke fell short of getting into the Sejm (4.9 per cent).

EPA / PAWEL SUPERNAK / Vostock Photo
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The campaign turned out to be the most “feminine” in Poland’s history, with three parties being led by women. However, behind them lurk the figures of well-known male politicians: Jaroslaw Kaczynski in the case of Beata Szydlo; former prime minister and current President of the European Council Donald Tusk (Ewa Kopacz); and former prime minister (2001–2004) and long-time leader of the Democratic Left Alliance Leszek Miller (Barbara Nowacka).

Law and Justice followed the same tactics that they used in the presidential election, when little-known Andrzej Duda came to the foreground ahead of Jaroslaw Kaczynski. This time around, it is the former head of the incumbent president’s campaign headquarters Beata Szydlo. Neither has had time to cloy the palate of the Polish voter, and both appear to be comparatively moderate against the background of Jaroslaw Kaczynski, who is known for his trenchant statements.

In their time, the brothers Lech and Jaroslaw Kaczynski gained a reputation as champions of traditional values. Lech Kaczynski became known as the “Sheriff of Warsaw” after he banned gay parades during his time as Mayor of Warsaw. Homophobia has now receded into the background, overshadowed by the more down-to-earth problems of voters: increasing child benefits, lowering the age of retirement, raising the minimum taxable income.

As for foreign policy, the Law and Justice Party has remained true to themselves. They see the United States and NATO as their main allies. The European Union and Germany were always targeted by the Kaczynski brothers, and now they are getting flak from Andrzej Duda and Beata Szydlo. This time Germany, the European Union and Chancellor Merkel herself are being blamed for the migrant crisis, whom the Polish conservatives would hardly welcome.

Russia has not escaped the attention of Polish conservatives. The Polish people have always regarded Russia with fear and suspicion, an attitude that was reinforced after the events in Ukraine. In 2015, Poland pulled down the monument to General Ivan Chernyakhovsky, the man who liberated the country. It then demolished a monument to Soviet–Polish combat brotherhood in Warsaw. The Law and Justice Party played up that theme.

“I have no doubt that Putin’s Russia today is an enemy and is trying to upend order in Europe. What is happening in Ukraine is a clear indication of the direction Putin wants to choose,” Beata Szydlo said shortly before polling day (link in Russian). She promised that she would seek to set up an international commission to investigate the crash of the presidential plane near Smolensk in April 2010.

The Civic Platform found itself in a delicate position. It too is critical of Russia’s policy, but has always refrained from using the words “adversary” or “enemy”. Ewa Kopacz tried to claim credit to her cabinet for the fact that Poland was among the first to introduce sanctions against Russia over Ukraine. “Solidarity with regard to Russia’s unworthy behaviour must come first,” Kopacz said.

However, her electoral defeat was largely caused by other factors. Thus, Civic Platform has always put its stake on developing relations with Germany and deepening European integration. But the European Union is living through hard times, with the unprecedented flood of migrants from the Middle East and Africa, and the Greek crisis. What is more, current President of the European Council Donald Tusk is the founder of Civic Platform, a fact that was not lost on the voters.

In recent years, the former government in Poland pursued a policy of “belt tightening”. It raised the pension age to 67, and Ewa Kopacz allowed employers to offer temporary contracts that did not even include health insurance. The gap in living standards between big cities and rural areas has been widening. Millions of Polish people still work abroad, unable to earn a livelihood at home. As a result, the Polish people are disenchanted with the former government.

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Social benefits, pensions, employment, the migration crisis in Europe, the future of the European Union and Russia’s politics – all these topics loomed large in the Polish election campaign. But the topic of Ukraine was studiously avoided. The reason for this is that the Polish political elite had reached a consensus on the issue back in 2014: support of the Ukrainian authorities and criticism of Russia.

However, much has changed since then. Many people in Poland were alarmed by the fact that Ukraine was treating nationalists who were involved in extermination of tens of thousands of Polish people during the Second World War as heroes. Before, the Law and Justice Party had advocated military assistance to Ukraine. Of late, however, the party’s representatives have not said anything of the kind. “Bullet-proof jackets, yes. Automatic rifles, no,” said Pawel Kukiz, leader of the party of the same name. Nobody challenged his words.

Descendants of Polish people in Western Ukraine made their voices heard during the election campaign, demanding that the Ukrainian authorities return their ancestral property (link in Russian). Shortly before the elections the Polish media began showing the country’s map, with Western Ukraine included as part of Poland. None of the parties that made it to the Sejm condemned the fact.

Now Law and Justice is fully responsible for Poland’s policy. It is safe to say that its relations with Russia will not improve, and relations with the European Union and Germany will deteriorate significantly. Ukraine is a more complicated case. Much will depend on Kiev’s policy. If it continues the course towards glorifying Bandera and his followers, this will be met with a very negative reaction from Poland. But if Kiev puts an end to this trend and preserves the pro-European course only Andrzej, Duda and Beata Szydlo will certainly support Ukraine.

Where will the Polish Eurosceptics who have come to power find allies? On a number of issues pertaining to the European Union and migration, Prime Minister of Hungary Viktor Orban is a likely candidate. But Andrzej Duda and Beata Szydlo diverge greatly from the Hungarian leader in terms of their attitude towards Russia. The same is true of the other partners in the Visegrad Group – the Czech Republic and Slovakia. Perhaps the President of Turkey Recep Tayyip Erdogan? Maybe, but it is through Turkey that migrants are heading for Europe, and Poland is afraid of migrants. So, things may not turn out well there either.

That leaves the United States and the United Kingdom. Relations with the United States have occupied a special place in the policy of all Polish governments. As for the United Kingdom, the Law and Justice Party is in the same group in the European Parliament as the British Conservative Party, which is contemplating a withdrawal from the European Union. It is by no means certain that the Polish leaders are prepared to go that far, but they may make a show of befriending David Cameron to spite the European Union and Russia.