Sudden improvement of Indian-American relations seems to render irrelevant the active participation of India in BRICS diversification which is viewed rather malevolently by the sole super-power and its main European partners. But it is BRICS that may allow India to achieve its basic goal in foreign policy.
Sudden improvement of Indian-American relations seems to render irrelevant the active participation of India in BRICS diversification which is viewed rather malevolently by the sole super-power and its main European partners. But it is BRICS that may allow India to achieve its basic goal in foreign policy.
The value of BRICS for India
Since gaining independence in 1947 the key strategic goal of Indian foreign policy has been to become a world power. This goal has remained on the agenda for more than sixty years. During a bi-polar world order period India placed a special emphasis on strengthening relations with other developing countries with a view to becoming a leader of national liberation movement (the Indian society had a consensus on these goals).
After the failure of the socialist system and a bi-polar world order India lost the possibility to play out its crossroads position between the West and the East card and to exploit the contradictions between the two systems, while the Non-alignment movement proved unable to fulfill its former function. In a new environment the prospects of this diplomatic forum of developing countries have grown bleak. The Indian leadership understood that in order to enhance its position in the South it is not enough to join “the world top league”. As a result the ambition of India to strengthen its authority among the developing countries slackened and its diplomacy became more “dedicated”.
In this regard, the creation of the “India-Brazil-SAR dialogue Forum” and the institutionalization of the Russia-India-China “triangle” are very indicative. In India all these countries are regarded as existing or potential global centers of power. They can also be called regional powers, i.e. the states that are able to influence neighboring countries’ policies mainly through their “soft power”. This small group includes India, China, Australia, Brazil and to some extent – South Africa (the formation of regional powers on the African continent is still very limited). By the end of the XX century Russia had been added to this list of regional powers. It seems that the time for the creation of regional powers in Europe and North America is already over.
So far, the format of the relationships inside RIC or BRIC or BRICS is not clear, the scale, the framework or directions of cooperation have not been defined. Even bilateral relations, Indian-Chinese in particular, face a lot of challenges. However, it’s undeniable that there are all pre-conditions in place for the rapprochement of the countries – first of all, the denial of the very possibility of a unipolar world (the rise of Islamic extremism and radicalism plays for “the triangle similar role).
Just to prevent the establishment of a unipolar world order, already in the previous century India began to consider the possibilities of rapprochement not only with China and Russia but also with Japan, countries of South-East Asia and European Union (though the participation of European countries in the aggression against Yugoslavia in 1999 made India put true independence of Western Europe into question [1]).
The hegemony of the “North” is rejected by India for political, economic and civilizational reasons. Independent foreign policy has always been the key goal and the dependence on anyone runs counter this South-Asian country’s foreign policy ambitions. Regardless of the competition between India and China the positions of these giants on the global issues are very close. The analysis of the frequency of coincidental votes of India, China and other countries at the UN General Assembly meetings on global policy issues demonstrates that in some years India appeared to be among top three powers of the world with the fewest divergences with PRC. The approaches of Asian giants to global sustainable development and strategic stability are nearly the same; it is, actually, Russia which is the only country that on the international security issues votes in unison with China more frequently than India.
Matching the strengthening of US-Indian relations with the approaches to BRICS
Taking a detached view of it may seem that the wish of India to extend the cooperation within BRICS comes in conflict with its course towards a “strategic dialogue” with the United States. Some experts even speak about possible creation of a Washington-Canberra-Tokyo-Delhi “rectangle” under the name the “union of largest democracies”. For the implementation of this idea large-scale naval exercises have been conducted in the Bay of Bengal since 2007. Special attention should be given to the joint US-Indian military exercises in Ladakh and Mizoram (close to the Chinese border). American-Indian cooperation in military and political sphere received an additional impetus with the creation of bilateral coordination committees between branches of Armed Forces, supply of the advanced military equipment from USA, regular meetings of a joint anti-terrorism task-force and joint consultations on Afghanistan. In 2006 USA and India signed an agreement on peaceful use of nuclear energy (“Agreement 123”). Moreover, the US has been the main economic partner for India during a long time and only last two years it was taken over by the PRC.
Although the US Administration denies that the development of the US-Indian relations is aimed at deterring China, it is obvious that it’s on the US agenda. American military are more frank: the US Department of Defense has in fact declared the goal to make India its “true” ally in an attempt to finally besiege China’s.
Another thing should also be taken into account. The third (contemporary) wave of immigration led to a situation when very few of Indian elite left who do not have relatives or close friends in USA. There have appeared leaders who call for India to be solely US-oriented and challenge the advocates of a traditional independent course. It may violate a forty-year old consensus in Indian society on foreign policy.
At the same time the major opposition force - Bharatiya Janata Party – starts to take a more critical stance towards the USA, the one that is similar to the position of the majority of right-wing nationalistic organizations in the world. Anti-American sentiments of center-leftists come as quite natural. The ruling Indian National Congress party has understood (as stated in Moscow by Prime-Minister of India Manmohan Singh during his official visit to Russia in December 2009) that Washington doesn’t regard any country as an equal partner and India deems the role of a junior partner unacceptable.
Thus, the changes in the US foreign policy in South Asia have a positive effect on the development of some aspects in Indian-American relations. But at a global level a conflict potential (currently latent) between two countries due to their considerable discrepancies in geopolitics and geo-economy is gathering momentum.
The analysis of Indian economic changes shows that, as in China, it is characterized by evolutionary and gradual nature of reforms inherent in Indian civilization and by the denial of Western Diktat and the refusal to be led by anyone. The country tried to resist those aspects of economic globalization that affect the position of developing countries. At the same time India is of course strongly interested in the further strengthening of economic and technological ties with the USA and other developed countries.
Conclusions
In current situation Indian leaders will most probably continue the skillful maneuvering resorting to the 1960-ies practices when India was the largest in Asia recipient of economic aid provided simultaneously by the USA and the USSR and bad experience of the 1970-ies when its bias towards one of super powers (the USSR) undermined its international position.
In the long run, Indian Republic sees China as its main strategic adversary in Asia. The majority of Indian elite believe that in a more distant future the Asian giants can be involved in a direct confrontation. At the same time there are very few principle opponents to joint actions within the next 10-15 years. This time span will see both the growing influence of India in BRICS and amelioration of Indian-American relations.
There is no doubt that India has become a world power and turned into a special sub-system of international relations. Together with the USA and China it is the most likely candidate for the centre of global influence, and most probably the future of the world will be defined by the relationships inside USA-China-India triangle. Russia, the European Union and Japan have a chance to become a part of a new “geometric configuration” but much will depend on their political will and economic development dynamics.
1. Initially the proposal to create a “triangle” made by E.M.Primakov in Delhi in 1998 was received coolly by the Indian elite, but in the aftermath of Serbia bombing in 1999, Indian Prime-Minister A.V. Vajpai demanded urgent realization of this proposal.
