RIAC and IRAS Working Paper #59/2020
There is a clear willingness for reconciliation expressed by Moscow, Abu Dhabi, and Damascus, as well as established dialogues between their respective leaders
On Middle Eastern states’ pragmatic approach and neutrality
An extension of the CBM is seen by Moscow as a bargaining chip but neither Russia nor its opponents will realistically benefit from vetoing an extension of UNSC res. 2585.
Syria will most likely remain part of US regional policies and subordinate to US dealings with Iran, Turkey and Russia
Discussions on the quid pro quo approach to sanctions relief and concessions look like the only possible way to move forward
After US decision to withdraw from JCPOA and to reintroduce sanctions, Iran’s oil sector feels more pressure and uncertainty
Today Syrian armed forces lack discipline, centralization, technical and organizational modernization, prestige, and authority and could hardly be called a real army
Syria’s military and security forces play a key institutional role, which has kept the country from total collapse during the last six years of war
This week has become very important if not landmark for the crisis in Syria
Can Russia and the U.S. control their proxies?
In your opinion, what are the US long-term goals for Russia?
U.S. wants to establish partnership relations with Russia on condition that it meets the U.S. requirements 33 (31%) U.S. wants to deter Russia’s military and political activity 30 (28%) U.S. wants to dissolve Russia 24 (22%) U.S. wants to establish alliance relations with Russia under the US conditions to rival China 21 (19%)
Tatiana Romanova, Maxine David
Aleksey Arbatov, Sergey Oznobishchev