... far outweigh the benefits, which is what underlies our bleak assessment of the current scenario
Most experts, both in Russia and abroad, thought it was extremely unlikely and implausible that Russia would launch a full-scale military operation in Ukraine. Allegations that Moscow was preparing for something like this were laughed off, with this being labeled as another Russophobic campaign pushed by propagandists and radicals. However, it turned out on February 24 that the Russophobes had been ...
... Russia’s status in the conflict changed to that of an acknowledged direct participant in the conflict, then Kiev would have had significant momentum to exert international pressure on the Kremlin. Equally as important, such a decision would have allowed Ukraine to continue avoiding direct negotiations with the leaders of the DPR and LPR and, consequently, any direct recognition of their legitimacy. In sum, redefining the sides to the conflict would mean a major victory for Ukraine and a major defeat for Russia.
However, since the critical significance of this issue is obvious ...
... leaders are acting on the assumption that any military actions under the present conditions are a low-risk affair. The Donbass self-defense forces are highly unlikely to launch major counter-offensives like they did near Ilovaisk or Debaltsevo. Therefore, Ukraine is free to test the strength of the DPR and LPR defenses and achieve small, if visible, successes like occupying demilitarized areas. Sabotage attacks against influential figures in the two republics also will go unanswered. The rebels will hardly come up with an adequate response. But ...
