... the military and political perspective, the Syrian leadership is interested in fully reclaiming Idlib, while avoiding, if possible, a costly military scenario similar to the operations “Dawn of Idlib” and “Dawn of Idlib 2” in 2019–2020, when Syrian forces, despite support from Russia and Iran, failed to fully achieve their goals, facing stiff pushback from the Turkish army (
Operation
Spring Shield in February–March 2020).
Damascus also seems to be planning to critically weaken militarily, politically and economically the self-proclaimed ...
Recent developments indicate improving Syrian-Turkish relations, aiming for regional stability, security cooperation and economic partnerships
Over the past years,... ... clans and tribes.
It is evident that achieving reconciliation among all conflicting factions in Syria is the desired outcome for Russia, which is entangled in conflicts with the West and the crisis in Ukraine. Moscow has taken numerous measures to facilitate ...
... conclude that Moscow and Tehran have elevated their cooperation to the level of a strategic partnership. So far, Iran does not intend to formally recognize the change in the territorial status quo between Russia and Ukraine that took place since 2014. Russian and Iranian interests in Syria and Afghanistan, in addition to their approaches to Israel, are difficult to reconcile. Moreover, social interaction between the two nations remains low, and several controversial chapters in their bilateral relations (including multiple Russian-Iranian ...
The goal of the round table was to discuss the dynamics of quadrilateral cooperation in the context of regional trends in the Middle East. The meeting was attended by leading experts from Russia, Iran, Turkey and Syria
On October 18, 2023, a closed round table “Cooperation between Russia, Iran, Turkey and Syria in the Context of Regional Dynamics” was held. Russian International Affairs Council (RIAC) in cooperation with Institute for Iran & Eurasia studies ...
... China-mediated rapprochement between the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia and the Islamic Republic of Iran. Given that these countries are regional “centers of power”, their new and... ... Iran’s relations with other countries, especially its evolving cooperation with China, Russia and Saudi Arabia. If any agreement has been reached (which is currently too early... ... relations is Turkey’s foreign policy. Particularly important, is Turkey’s position on Syria prior to the presidential elections in May 2023, and the new aspects it has now...
... United States. Chronic instability seems to have become the new Syrian norm. Getting used to this uncertain reality is perceived by many inside and outside Syria as something inevitable that will have to continue.
Whatever the security threats, the Syrian authorities, backed by Russia and Iran, are generally in control of the domestic political situation. Above all, real challenges to the regime’s foundations lie in the economy, which is sinking ever faster into a deep hole. The strangling effect of Western sanctions is on a rising trajectory....
... active opposition to the Turkish operation from the United States, which is cornered with optimizing its resources in the Middle East, as well as Ankara's position on accepting Finland and Sweden to NATO. However, if Turkey faces active opposition from Iran, Russia, and the United States, the operation may be postponed.
Kirill Semenov:
Istanbul Terrorist Attack: What Awaits Turkey and its Neighbors?
Syria considers any attacks on its territory a violation of national sovereignty. Turkey, in turn, refers back to the Sochi Memorandum of Understanding, signed in October 2019 to defend its considered actions. According to the Memorandum, Kurdish groups ...
... small projects. Some Gulf Arab states have signaled that they might be willing to support reconstruction, perhaps hoping to get Syria out of Iran’s orbit. But for now, they are hesitant to take the risk. For the same reason, Damascus’ other allies—Russia and Iran—which, however, have already done a lot to preserve the Syrian statehood, are constrained. Despite proposals to adjust and clarify the position of the U.S. and EU in terms of Damascus taking certain steps in exchange for the easing of the sanction regime, such efforts have never been made by either side.
1
...
... be key in resolving the Syrian crisis. Economic reintegration may prove to be a catalyst for the peace process. This working paper presents a political economy model for the settlement of the situation in Syria. The author explores the positions of Russia, Iran and China in Syria and their points of interaction. Possible scenarios for the development of the situation in Syria are analysed in detail, as are the modalities of the impact of the Ukraine crisis on the configuration of external actors of the Syrian conflict.
Settling ...
... power and expanding its territorial control through concomitant diplomatic efforts.
Throughout the Syrian war, regularized military and political exchanges have served to strengthen the Russia-Iran relationship. With the changing military dynamics in Syria, Russia, Iran, and Turkey spearheaded the Astana Process as a parallel track to the UN mediation. Moscow’s diplomatic and military gains on the ground have also embroiled them in a broader regional geopolitical competition between the United States, Russia, ...
