... shipments under the deal reached truly vulnerable nations is being widely disputed. Another fact, that if it were not for the sanctions Russia could cover a significant part of food shortages, is being hushed up. All the while our readiness to immediately ... ... countries is being criticized as “too little, too late.”
Meanwhile, the West continues to call the
special operation
in Ukraine—which they themselves provoked—the main source of the multiple crises in the global economy. They directly link the ...
... major projects and investments in Ukraine. When Moscow and Kyiv are locked in a state of large-scale military conflict, it is difficult for Beijing to balance between the two countries.
On the one hand, the new US and European large-scale economic sanctions imposed on Russia after the outbreak of the Russia–Ukraine conflict have opened more opportunities for developing China–Russia economic cooperation. On the other hand, they have created severe restrictions and risks for Beijing. Given American and European anti-Russian sanctions, Beijing-Moscow cooperation ...
... always more moderate. Though Beijing has adopted an official “neutral” position on the Ukrainian issue, there should be no doubt, that Beijing has been deeply involved and consulted in Moscow’s planning of the “special military operation” in Ukraine. This level of coordination gives Kremlin the justified confidence that “the World is big” and no sanctions can tip Russia. We already see the contours of the West deeply humiliated and Russia succeeding with it objectives in Ukraine. Like Russia in Europe, China has during the past decades built up the necessary power to act in East Asia, and the ...
... anti-tank guided missile complexes). The ranks of the AFU may be supplemented by volunteers from abroad. A respite would give Ukraine time to remilitarize, and moving on with the special operation would bring the same result, delaying its final success ... ... the media, are on Kiev’s side. And we are not talking exclusively about Western countries here.
Implication 4.
Unprecedented sanctions against Russia. All the bravado concerning the sanctions and statements claiming that that they are barely affecting ...
... programs of import substitution, accumulating foreign exchange reserves, expanding trade with China and deepening political and military-technical cooperation with its partners across the CSTO. The West has established various formats and mechanisms of sanctions pressure, boosting NATO’s eastern flank and increasing policy coordination both within the Alliance and within the European Union as well as military-technical assistance to Ukraine, while consistently attacking Russia in a variety of international settings ranging from the UN General Assembly to OSCE and the Council of Europe ministerials.
Was another collision—of a larger scale—inevitable? During the eight years of ...
... Sino-American relations, this is a much longer-term view than treating Ukraine as an immediate opportunity for an invasion of its own,
to say nothing
of the enormous obstacles such a campaign would face. Apart from outright support for Russian action against Ukraine, there also seems to be little appetite for shielding Moscow from its consequences, e.g. by undermining a threatened Western sanctions regime. Here, too, both sides may share a long-term interest in reducing their dependence on a U.S.-centric financial system, but at present, China’s greater trade links with the U.S. and EU make it acutely
vulnerable
to secondary sanctions....
Andrey Kurtunov from the Russian International Affairs Council discusses Russia-Ukraine tensions and how concerned the Kremlin might be about possible Western sanctions, which have been threatened in case of an attack on Ukraine
Andrey Kurtunov from the Russian International Affairs Council discusses Russia-Ukraine tensions and how concerned the Kremlin might be about possible Western sanctions, which have been threatened in case of an attack on Ukraine.
Video
... focused restrictions would be applied to imports and exports of oil and gas. The cumulative damage to the Russian economy would be colossal in scale.
Fifth, controlling Ukraine, even its eastern part, could be problematic. Taking into account the Western sanctions blockade, any transactions with the territories of Ukraine under Russian control would be impossible. Russia would have to take on a huge territory. The big question is whether the Russian market, in the grip of new sanctions, would be able to compensate for the damage to the Ukrainian territories under ...
... loss of control over the situation, should the symbolic whipping turn into a real conflict.
In the end, full-scale military operations in Donbass in the near future are not the baseline scenario. Russia is a strong adversary; the risk of big losses for Ukraine are great. Accordingly, it is hardly worth considering a scenario of a sharp tightening of sanctions against Russia. No radical aggravation—no radical sanctions.
At the same time, politics likes surprises. Erroneous assessments, the personal ambitions of leaders, the peculiarities of group decision-making with their "shift to risk",...
... whether the situation in the coming year will remain stable?
— Given the scale of the Russian economy, the current sanctions are unlikely to derail it. However, sanctions can cause grave problems for individual companies and projects. The risk of new sanctions stems from a series of political factors: the Ukrainian crisis and conflict in Donbass, the U.S. elections and the alleged meddling, the developments in the Middle East, etc.
— Regarding Ukraine, the crisis has noticeably stabilized. However, we should not expect any significant breakthroughs in terms of compliance with the Minsk Agreements in the coming year. The stabilization of the situation in Donbass significantly decreases the risk ...
