The bottom line is that the costs far outweigh the benefits, which is what underlies our bleak assessment of the current scenario
Most experts, both in Russia and abroad, thought it was extremely unlikely and implausible that Russia would launch a full-scale military operation in Ukraine. Allegations that Moscow was preparing for something like this were laughed off, with this being labeled as another ...
... 377, which would allow the issue of establishing peace and security to be delegated to the General Assembly in the light of the Security Council’s continuous inability to do so, is unlikely to work. S/RES/2202 bocks GA/RES/337.
On the other hand, Russia’s demand that Kiev holds direct negotiations with the DPR and LPR today is just as unacceptable as it has ever been for Kiev, which categorically refuses to acknowledge the legal existence of these entities. As far as Kiev is concerned, the current authorities in Luhansk and Donetsk are nothing more than ...
... will facilitate the implementation of the Minsk Agreements and block Kiev's attempts to undermine them. The implementation of even one or several points listed in the agreements may become a turning point. A possible option is holding elections in the DPR and the LPR and establishing fully legitimate authorities recognized as such by the international community.
Ivan Timofeev
is Programme Director of the Valdai Discussion Club, Director of Programs at Russian International Affairs Council (RIAC).
First published in
Valdai Discussion Club
.