... regional and global actors, including the United States.
Andrey Kortunov:
When “Iron Swords” Return to Their Sheaths
Limits to escalation
But in the 11 months that have passed since the Hamas attack on Israel, no major war has broken out in the Middle East. Israel, as predicted, is stuck in Gaza for long. The death toll among Palestinian civilians has passed 40,000, with the number of wounded approaching 100,000, and the number of refugees and internally displaced persons now in the seven figures. For the ...
... Europe. But a country that thinks about itself and its future will never make decisions the consequences of which could lead to its destruction. Not everyone is Ukraine.
So far, the situation regarding the independence of the leading countries in the Middle East looks optimistic. Even Israel, which has traditionally been linked to the US through a wide range of political and economic contacts, cannot be seen as a mere representative of American interests. This explains the irritation that the Israeli authorities often cause in Washington....
The two rivals’ jabs at each other are rapidly increasing in both number and intensity
The situation in the Middle East, where the aspirations of Iran and Israel have once again collided, is paradoxical in that there is no way out. Both sides would like to put a stop to the other’s gallop, but this is impossible without disastrous consequences for themselves. There are many reasons for this situation,...
... perhaps other targets in the West. It is still unclear when Iran will launch its threatening assault against Israel, or what form those strikes would take.
Hamna Ghias Sheikh:
Shadows of Escalation: The Ripple Effects of Ismail Haniyeh's Assassination on Middle Eastern Stability
While Iran’s recent April 13 attack on Israel marked a significant escalation for the two nations—over 300 drones and a combination of cruise and ballistic missiles were launched—almost all incoming drones and missiles were intercepted with little to no damage. The lack of a damaging response ...
... to Haniyeh's killing has been swift and direct. Iran, a staunch supporter of Hamas since its inception in 1987, has provided extensive training and funding to the group, supplying them with rockets, missiles, and drones. Additionally, according to
Middle Eastern intelligence officials
, Iran has played a crucial role in helping Hamas construct an intricate network of underground tunnels in Gaza, designed to protect their equipment and infrastructure from Israeli attacks. Hamas has also received significant financial support from Iran, along with technical assistance to produce rockets and drones equipped with advanced guidance systems. Iran, a staunch supporter of Hamas, has therefore
vowed retaliation
...
... reflections on the risks of further escalation on the Lebanese–Israeli border? How likely is it that the IDF will carry out an operation against Hezbollah?
Igor Subbotin:
Special Forces at the Ready: How the War in Gaza Brought the U.S. Back to the Middle East
Israel is in a double whammy of having two different fronts open. It is hard enough for it to conduct military operations on two fronts. Although there is no official war, we know the IDF and Hezbollah do trade fire. It should also be kept in mind that ...
... Chinese investments. For example, Israel and the U.S. had a big disagreement over the reconstruction of the Haifa port, China’s participation in the construction causing U.S. warnings. In the
opinion
of U.S. officials, increased Chinese investment in Israel is a serious threat to the latter’s national security.
* * *
China’s influence in the Middle East is still mainly limited to issues of trade and economy, currently pursued within the overarching framework of the Belt & Road Initiative (BRI). However, China is also harboring some foreign policy ambitions. This has become especially noticeable ...
... similar result—at least, if elections are held in the near future. Meanwhile, Palestinian President Mahmoud Abbas turns 90 next year, and, as one can easily guess, the bitter struggle for his political legacy has already begun.
Regional Trends in the Middle East: Political and Economic Dynamics. RIAC Report
The situation in Israel looks more certain and predictable, but this certainty and predictability are unlikely to facilitate the settlement of the Israeli-Palestinian issue. Judging by opinion polls, Israeli society is willing to go all the way in the fight against Hamas,...
... and economic trends in the Middle East require a degree of theoretical conceptualization. The authors of this report analyze the current political and economic trends in the region’s Arab countries and non-Arab states, including Iran, Turkey, and Israel. Additionally, the authors examine key foreign policy trends in Middle Eastern states.
Regional Trends in the Middle East: Political and Economic Dynamics
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... when you least expect it.
For a long time, the main goal in the US Middle East strategy was to neutralize the role of Iran as the joker. One after another, US presidents have tried to convince the international community that the main problem in the Middle East was not even the Israeli-Palestinian conflict, but rather Tehran’s “regional hegemonism.”
Various ways of solving the “Iranian problem” were proposed, including the creation of the broadest possible anti-Iranian coalitions, increased economic and diplomatic ...
