... another major regional conflict. The military operation of the Israel Defense Forces (IDF) in the Gaza Strip was to be followed by fierce hostilities in the West Bank, then by a large-scale border clash between Israel and Lebanon, and, finally, by an Israeli–Iranian war, which had been looming on the political horizon for years and was literally just a step away, with the likely involvement of several key regional and global actors, including the United States.
Andrey Kortunov:
When “Iron Swords” Return ...
Soviet influence in the Middle East was ultimately useless, and now it seems Washington is heading down the same path
The confrontation between Iran and Israel has been going on for several weeks now. However, none of the parties directly – or, indeed, indirectly – involved in Middle East politics are keen to see events there escalate into a larger military conflict.
In other words, the situation ...
... acting unilaterally. This is probably the most common form of deterrence today. More precisely, it’s desirable because it does not involve major hostilities and the risks associated with them. It doesn’t always work, however.
Coming back to the Iran-Israel axis, both sides are aware of the impossibility of achieving their desired goals through a full-on direct clash. Hence, the constant brinkmanship, including extremely provocative steps, in the expectation that the response will not cross any red ...
... revenge strike that targeted Iranian air defence radar systems in the province of Isfahan, where the Natanz nuclear facility and military industrial complex—including drone and ballistic missile factories—are located. The IDF has thus sent a message: Iran is vulnerable. Israel’s military superiority—specifically, its air force—will play a pivotal role in Iran’s strategy. Is Iran willing to gamble and lose what they spent years and billions of dollars on building a nuclear weapons program? It would not be so far ...
... implications of this assassination extend to the regional power struggle. Haniyeh's assassination, particularly on Iranian soil, can be interpreted as a direct challenge to Iran's support for Hamas. It underscores the ongoing proxy conflict between Israel and Iran, highlighting Israel's determination to counter Iranian influence in the region. This operation is not merely a tactical maneuver but more of a political calculation designed to bolster Prime Minister Netanyahu's standing domestically and internationally....
... we cannot support either terrorist or military activity. Russia maintains political contacts, including with Hamas and Hezbollah. But for Israeli society, this has always been and will always be an aggravating factor in Russian–Israeli relations. Israel’s arch enemies are Iran, Hamas and Hezbollah, while we have constructive relations with them. Let me remind you that Hamas and Hezbollah are designated as terrorist organizations in Israel, while in Russia they are not. This is also brought up against us. But we have our ...
... among other things, undermining their fundamental long-term geopolitical construct, which had been used for decades to structure the system and dynamics of regional relations across the Middle East. It was based on the exploitation of Sunni-Shiite and Iranian-Saudi contradictions, into which anti-American and anti-Israeli manifestations were also implanted as a sign of “Shiite” (aka “Iranian”) influence in the countries of this region. The conflict in Yemen has long ago proved its complete unsuitability for analyzing the Yemeni realities. The sociocultural ...
... circumstances, political and economic trends in the Middle East require a degree of theoretical conceptualization. The authors of this report analyze the current political and economic trends in the region’s Arab countries and non-Arab states, including Iran, Turkey, and Israel. Additionally, the authors examine key foreign policy trends in Middle Eastern states.
Regional Trends in the Middle East: Political and Economic Dynamics
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... while others can be questioned or challenged. However, none of the neighboring states have been able to simply dismiss them in the past and will not be able to do so in the future. It should also be remembered that, unlike its Arab opponents or even Israel, Iran is not dependent on external security providers—it is quite self-sufficient, as befits a true joker.
The current situation in the region may well prove to be a historical fork in the road for both Iran and the Middle East as a whole. What will ...
... Syrian-Turkish rapprochement and Syria rejoining the League of Arab States. [
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The crisis in Eastern Europe has been less significant for the region than many other events happening simultaneously inside the Middle East, such as expanding the Abraham Accords, Israel’s deep political crisis, or the China-brokered Saudi-Iranian rapprochement. However, the crisis in Eastern Europe did have an impact on the food security of the MENA region and it also affected negotiations on oil exports within the OPEC+ format. Still, it would be an exaggeration to argue that since the ...
