If Russia fails to streamline and increase its assistance to Central Asia within five years, transborder threats will inevitably increase, with Moscow losing its clout in the region, primarily to Beijing’s benefit. On November 8, RIAC presented its working paper “Development Assistance in Central Asia: Strategic Horizons of Russian Engagement” prepared by the RIAC experts within the framework of the analysis of the situation in Central Asia after the likely withdrawal of coalition forces from Afghanistan in 2014.
If Russia fails to streamline and increase its assistance to Central Asia within five years, transborder threats will inevitably increase, with Moscow losing its clout in the region, primarily to Beijing’s benefit.
On November 8, RIAC presented its working paper “Development Assistance in Central Asia: Strategic Horizons of Russian Engagement” prepared by the RIAC experts within the framework of the analysis of the situation in Central Asia after the likely withdrawal of coalition forces from Afghanistan in 2014. The paper was presented by RIAC Deputy Program Director Timur Makhmutov, Director of the Center of Global Issues of the Institute of International Studies at MGIMO-University Viktor Sergeev, Director of the Analytical Centre of the Institute of Global Issues at the Institute of International Studies at MGIMO-University, Andrey Kazantsev, and Director of the Centre for Security and Development Issues at the World Affairs Department of Moscow State University Vladimir Bartenev.
The authors emphasized that Central Asian states are characterized by dependence on commodities, low living standards with fast growing population in the poorest countries, as well as high vulnerability to new security threats, especially terrorism and Islamic extremism. Besides, Russia is the world largest market for Afghan heroin and the key recipient of Central Asian labor migration.
At the same time, the region is quite attractive for outside actors, with Turkey and China in the lead. Due to less assistance from the austerity-stricken USA and Europe, Russia may face new opportunities for extending its assistance, especially as China’s aid is snowballing. According to Dr. Kazantsev, the United States and the EU are losing interest in the region that is becoming a priority for China.
The paper insists that by 2014 the situation will require Russia to adjust its regional policy in the development assistance area. The changes should aim at raising the efficiency of the efforts undertaken and improving Russia’s image, especially as the Russian forces are deployed in Tajikistan. Dr. Makhmutov pointed out that Russian military presence should be supported by engagement with the local public and expert community, which offers the only way for creating a positive information environment.
The event also saw the presentation of the report “Influence of the Changing Situation in Afghanistan on Collective Security in Central Asia” prepared by Radik Murzagaleyev, Executive Director of Berlek-Yedinstvo Center for Geopolitical Studies, Ufa, and the Center’s expert Dmitry Mikhailichenko.
