Russia and the Asia-Pacific Region

Yuliia Kosiakova: is there any way to leave “the islands of bad luck”?

October 6, 2017
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Сlimate change is one of the main global problems of our times. The scale and frequency of ecological disasters has been only increasing, all the while disrupting the environment of numerous places on Earth. Under such conditions people often have to cross national borders to find a safer place to live. In the international practice it is common to define these group of people into separate category of refugees – so called “climate refugees”. However, currently there is no unified international definition of people displaced due to climate change has been adopted so far. In addition, people who happened to be in this situation can not be classified as refugees according to the 1951 Convention Relating to the Status of Refugees. Consequently they can not apply for resettlement in other country, since no international law regulates this type of relationship [[i]].
At the Conference of UN Framework Convention on Climate Change held in Cancun 2010, Paris 2010 [[ii]], as well as the First Humanitarian Summit in Turkey 2016 [[iii]], international humanitarian organizations and countries recognized climate change induced displacement as a rising global threat, and agreed to undertake necessary measures to cope with it. However, at the moment we are still witnessing operative and institutional shortcomings, lack of internationally coordinated responses and efficient international and subregional cooperation. In addition, the UN High Commissioner for Refugees regularly warns that due to constant flooding of large areas in the Asia-Pacific region (APR) the number of displaced people has been inevitably increasing and will reach 1 billion people within the next 50 years [[iv]]. Moreover, within the next 30-50 years some territories in Oceania will completely submerge underwater. Due to that, it is estimated that small island states in the South Pacific will comprise a significant part of expected percent of displaced people.
The threat of a “climate refugee” crises in the APR forces developed countries to address the issue – first of all, by creating mechanisms to prevent the occurrence of “climate refugees”. Besides that, climate change poses a direct threat on maritime ports and airports, which are not only the vital channels of international trade for small Oceanian island states, or simply a “connection with the main land”, but also centers of strategically beneficial international shipways that lay in the APR [[v]]. However, humanitarian issues do not serve as determining factors in shaping developed countries’ position on climate change induced consequences in Oceania. It is a pure geopolitical interest in Oceania held by developed countries (including APR states) that presents a more decisive aspect in building regional cooperation. Oceania serves as a “lodgment” for a clash of interests between influential states in the APR, a battlefield for them to fight over the right to enjoy political and economical gain. Financial assistance provided for island-states, “cheque book diplomacy” [[vi]], and an expansion of military presence are usually used as instruments for spreading influence within the region.
Thus, Australia seeks to expand its influence zone with the purpose of securing its borders, therefore it, for all intents and purposes controls Melanesia by maintaining its external military bases and influencing presidential campaigns in small countries. France who possesses three large territories in Oceania largely finances its Oceania territories in order to keep the status of ‘marine state”. China and Taiwan compete for spreading political influence in Oceania, while the former actively strengthens its not only economic and political positions, but also strategic and military ones, the later strives for the votes in the United Nations on the issue of Taiwan independence. Due to the fact that small island states in Oceania don't have their own armies, they have to use the military service provided by Australia, New Zealand, France, China and the USA. Such type of service is considered as an appealing opportunity for developed military states to expand their military presence.
The USA continues its political control of Micronesia by sending large amounts of economic aid in exchange for the approval from Micronesians to keep military assets on their land. A rapidly developing China has caused the USA to strengthen its diplomatic efforts to ensure favorable conditions for military presence in the Pacific Ocean. Humanitarian aid to the countries that are affected by climate change induced problems, such as “protection of climate refugees”, is considered to be a new prospective way of expanding one’s influence and preventing other countries counter actions in the region. Nowadays the wide range of Pacific countries apply this in their migration law or through the implementation of national humanitarian programs.
Thus, in 2001 New Zealand created a new type of visa, the “Pacific Access category” that allows “climate refugees” to move to New Zealand easier [[vii]]. The USA offers the temporary residence and work permit for casualties of natural catastrophes until the country, that experienced the disaster, is capable to guarantee a safe return back to their homeland with a provision of favorable conditions. Australia has been implementing “Humanitarian Programme for refugees and others in refugee-like situations” [[viii]] allowing people to move to Australia from ecologically uninhabitable areas”. Migration services in Canada cooperate with international humanitarian organizations and resettlement of “refugees with special needs”, that do not meet the criteria established in the 1951 Convention, but receive a humanitarian aid from international organizations [[ix]].
As for Russia, which has a large access to the Pacific Ocean, repartition of spheres of influence in Oceania is not even of secondary importance. Russia does not implement any special programs, aimed at providing assistance to “climate refugees.” However, the development of mutually beneficial relations with Oceanian countries might become a significant part of a complex program for development of the Russian Far East. Thus, for example, it seems necessary to cooperate on the issue of a coherent coordination of natural disasters within the APR, which will allow countries not only to significantly decrees expenses of restoration, but also attract additional outward investments. Therefore, the concern about providing assistance to “climate change refugees” might be regarded as a potential opportunity for all states in the APR to consolidate their influence in Oceania. “Resettlement program” [[x]] or special humanitarian programs, which guarantee resettlement of people suffered from uninhabitable environment, as well as financial aid to countries in the Southern part of Pacific Ocean, that were affected by climate change in the largest extent.

Yuliia Kosiakova, alumnus of International Relations Department of Oriental institute - School of International and Regional studies, Far Eastern Federal University, kosiakova.i@mail.ru.

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