Subject: Ukrainian Crisis 2022

The new stage of the Ukrainian crisis will have global consequences. For some, it will bring short and medium-term costs, and very significant ones. For many, however, it will create opportunities to increase their influence over the long term

To Moscow, Russian security will never be American security reimagined. Simply put, Russian security cannot be anti-Russian

Dialogue, diplomacy and negotiations are the only acceptable route to resolving the conflict in a way that can stand the test of time

Russia has only temporarily captured China’s seemingly entrenched role as a major U.S. villain, while the West will fight for the narratives to influence the minds and hearts of the rest of the world

Putin’s move has been dubbed a “war of choice” by the U.S. administration—in fact, Russia’s military retaliation has been forced on it by the U.S. Russia’s primary concern now is to prevent city-based violence in all major cities

The bottom line is that the costs far outweigh the benefits, which is what underlies our bleak assessment of the current scenario

The sanctions signal the strategy of economic eviction and dramatic abandonment of the West’s earlier strategy of a truly globalized capitalist economy, in which Russia and China are stakeholders

Numerous visits of Western leaders to Moscow on the eve of the crisis are among the foreign policy failures, and the Russian side failed to persuade anything, with political and diplomatic compromise considered unattainable