... of regional actors, Moscow counted on the major comparative advantage that distinguished Russia from other main out of area powers involved in Middle East crises — it enjoyed good relations with practically all local players — Sunnis and Shias, Iran and Arab states of the Gulf, Israelis and Palestinians, Turks and Kurds, and so on. The Russian regional activism was also inadvertently encouraged by the US Trump Administration that could not decide on its approach to either Syria or to the regional at large. The launch of the Astana process in the very end of 2016, turned out to be a significant political victory for Moscow. Throughout 2017 Russia was consistently trying to capitalize on this initial success by broadening ...
... very beginning, deployment of the Russian military was a double-edge sword.
On the one hand, Kremlin’s decision to deploy its air and special forces to Syria in fall of 2015 was a result of an agreement with Damascus and Tehran aiming at preventing Syria from collapse. Russia’s air cover without Iranian forces on the ground would be meaningless, so it was mutually beneficial division of labor which worked out quite successfully for its purposes.
On the other hand, Russia’s military deployment to Syria sent a signal to Israel and the West that ...
... little help as a partner in light of the upcoming U.S. presidential election. Instead, Russia decided to rely on those regional powers which had actual influence on the situation in Syria. This led, in late 2016, to the proposal of the Astana format of Syrian negotiations, with Russia, Turkey and Iran acting as guarantors. The process began at the same time that Aleppo returned to the full control of the Syrian government forces. Given these developments in the Middle East, at the theoretical level, Russian researchers concluded that with the ...
... This much was evident at the summit on Syrian settlement between Russia, Turkey and Iran held in Tehran. On the one hand, Turkey’s President Recep Tayyip Erdogan appears to have successfully staved off the planned massive offensive in Idlib by the Syrian Army with support from Russia and Iran. On the other hand, Ankara has finally put Hay’at Tahrir al-Sham (formerly Jabhat al-Nusra, a.k.a. Al-Qaeda) on the list of terrorist organizations, something that it was unwilling to do before. To all appearances, Hay’at Tahrir al-Sham’s dominance ...
... and are supplied both to major regional players and to Russia’s less influential partners. Moscow has been involved in the exploitation of large hydrocarbon deposits and the construction of the related infrastructure in Egypt [
17
], Turkey [
18
], Syria [
19
], Iraq [
20
], and Iran [
21
] since late 2015. What is more, Russia works with the Organisation of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) to stabilise oil prices [
22
].
China has become the largest investor in the Middle East, surpassing the United States [
23
]. At present, Middle Eastern countries continue ...
... currencies in mutual payments due to the United States reinstating sanctions against Iran. The Minister mentioned cooperation in several areas, such as tax regulation in bilateral trade, housing construction and, curiously, investment in rebuilding Syria, for which Iran has no money.
Tehran is forced to act with regard to Russia and China’s support, given the unwillingness of European investors to invest in post-war rebuilding of Syria.
Like Minister Hatami, Teimur Bashirgonbadi spoke about the indispensable role that Iran’s private business plays in developing bilateral ...
... for the development of the situation in Syria
On September 5, 2018, Russian International Affairs Council on International Affairs (RIAC) and the Iranian and the Institute for Iran-Eurasia Studies (IRAS) held an online seminar on the positions of Russia and Iran on the Syrian crisis. Ruslan Mamedov, RIAC Program Assistant, and Davood Kiani, First Deputy Director of the IRAS Institute, moderated the sessions.
The online seminar consisted of two sessions: presentations of the speakers and discussions of the parties (questions ...
... in Syria, both countries’ military and intelligence apparatuses are in contact in the Syrian arena to avoid unfortunate outcomes. Moreover, Israel relies on Russia to be the intermediary to resolve border issues. We saw this recently in Lebanon and Syria given Russia’s everexpanding presence and many contacts in the region. However, the concerns in Israel regarding Iran in southern Syria still remain. For instance, Israel has made it clear that it is concerned with the recent agreement between the US and Russia for a “zone of de-escalation” in southern Syria. In the view of the Israeli establishment, this prevents ...
... at the Institute of Oriental Studies of the Russian Academy of Sciences, RIAC expert, and Vasily Kuznetsov, Director of the Center for Arab and Islamic Studies at the RAS Institute of Oriental Studies, RIAC expert, represented Russia at the meeting. Iranian side was represented by the following speakers: Mahmud Shuri, Fellow for Russian Studies, IRAS, and Hassan Ahmadian, Research Fellow, IRAS.
Experts name the Syrian crisis and its resolution among the key factors for the future setting of the entire Middle East. The parties noted that the existence of ISIS had been uniting players with very different interests for the sake of one goal.
The victory over ISIS ...
... Russia’s direct military presence into account when forming their foreign policies in the future.
RIAC and IRAS Report “Russia-Iran Partnership: an Overview and Prospects for the Future”
Having found themselves on the same side of the barricades in Syria, Russia and Iran decided to engage in tactical cooperation, despite the differences in terms of their interests. Irrespective of how the Syrian conflict is resolved, it will be of paramount importance for Russia to preserve its naval base in that country. In this ...
