... escalate pressure on Iran using Europe as a springboard for further sanctions on Tehran and Iran would probably consider future moves using its proxy agents similar to Abqaiq refinery attack in Aramco.
Political instability will continue to hit the Middle East region. While the protests in Iraq and Lebanon will continue to achieve their goals with international support. Many demonstrations will be fuelled in other Middle Eastern states starting from Iran, Turkey, Egypt, Algeria, and some Gulf nations. As pro-Iran forces control Iraq and ...
... eye to eye with the U.S. in certain matters. We can only hope in the long-term that the EU and Russia’s shared embracement of multilateralism and the UN may provide a solid groundwork on which to foster more cooperative regional engagement in the Middle East, also by convincing the US to return to a more stable and predictable foreign policy towards the region.
On October 26, 2019, the Iraqi-born leader of the Islamic State of Iraq and the Levant, Abu Bakr al-Baghdadi, was killed during a U.S. raid. What do you make of his death and what consequences could that have for ISIS and international terrorism as a whole?
Andrey Kortunov, Michel ...
RIAC Working Paper № 48/2019
RIAC Working Paper № 48/2019
This working paper was prepared by the Russian International Affairs Council as part of the RIAC’s project on «Conflicts in the Middle East: Tools and Strategies for Settlement». This paper is devoted to analyzing the situation in the oil and gas market in Iraq and Syria, as well as the energy policy of Russia in the Arab Mashreq region. The authors also analyze Iraq’s oil prospects in the post-war period under sanctions against Iran. Special attention is paid to the Kurdish factor and the role the Kurds ...
... implementation of a shift from a military-political approach to an economic one or in other words from risk based approach to opportunity-oriented
Since the start of the Russian military operation in Syria in 2015, the configuration of political forces in the Middle East began to undergo major changes. The dominance of the United States as a key security provider in the region, which was the issue since 1990s and accelerated with the invasion of Iraq in 2003, began to fade into the background. Two parallel processes have occurred in the region – the return of Russia as one of the key elements of the regional security architecture and the growing role of regional players. The latter became a ...
... experts, representatives of scientific and analytical centers of the Middle East region, such as the Institute for Iran-Eurasia Studies (IRAS, Iran), the Center for Strategic Research (SAM) of the Ministry of Foreign Affairs of the Republic of Turkey, Middle East Technical University (Turkey), American University of Beirut (Lebanon), Damascus Center for Research and Studies (Syria), Al-Rafidain Center For Dialogue (Iraq), Al-Quds University (Palestine), the United Nations Economic and Social Commission for West Asia, and other. The Russian side was represented by experts from RIAC, RAS Institute of Oriental Studies, National Research University Higher School of ...
...
(Najaf, Iraq) headed by Farhad Alaeddin.
RIAC guests got to know about current and completed projects of the Council on the Middle East vector. RIAC and Al-Rafidain Center discussed the current state of Russia-Iraq relations, the role of Russia and Iraq in security in the Middle East, as well as the impact of escalation in the US-Iran relations on regional affairs. The parties outlined further plans for interaction at the institutional level and agreed to develop cooperation.
Andrey Kortunov, RIAC Director General, Timur ...
Working Paper #46 / 2019
This working paper looks into the complex issue of Russia–Iraq relations. It provides a detailed analysis of the foundations of the bilateral ties between the two countries, Russia’s approach to the Kurdish issue, and the future of cooperation between Russia and Iraq now that both countries have completed ...
On January 19–20, 2019, Baghdad hosted a conference “Iraq and its Neighbors - Challenges and Opportunities for New Regional Stability” under the patronage of Ayatollah Sayyid Hussein Al-Sadr and Adil Abdul-Mahdi, Iraqi Prime Minister. The event was organized by Baghdad International Center for Research ...
... management on the ground, and benevolence from Turkey, experiences successful reconstruction – first by China, soon followed up by the EU. The Baath party continues, with new leaders.
Lebanon
is stabilized and becomes again “the Switzerland of the Middle East”.
Kurdish
areas may experience their own future, or a future joint with Syria/Iraq, respectively. With the US support, they can remain in a very independent position but without state-recognition. As such, they can continue, but may languish, being “sandwiched” between Turkey and Syria/Iraq. Alternatively, with effective guarantees,...
... Transport Corridor running through Russia, Azerbaijan and Iran and into India with the Belt and Road Initiative could become an element of strategic Russia–China cooperation.
Russia and China may both be interested in gaining continental access to the Middle East using the territories and infrastructure of Iran and Iraq in order to strengthen their influence in the Arab Mashreq sub-region, including Lebanon, Syria, Jordan and Iraq. The countries in the region may also be interested in this, as diversifying international relations will allow them to stabilise political ...
