It is becoming increasingly more difficult for Moscow to retain its position as an honest, if not completely independent, broker
On February 14, the leaders of Russia, Turkey and Iran will meet in Sochi to discuss Syria and hold separate bilateral meetings. Recently, new developments have emerged that could prove dangerous if each state pursues its own hidden agenda. The three states depend on the Astana format for settling the Syrian issue.
By 2019, the Syrian ...
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Judging from the new State Armament Program for 2018-2027, which Putin signed off in December 2017, many of the most ambitious and expensive aerospace and naval weapons programs have effectively been pushed back to the mid-2020s or even beyond 2027.
In Syria, Putin will keep trying to convert the military success of the Russian intervention into political and diplomatic gains, but he will be hampered by the growing Syrian involvement of the United States. Unlike Moscow, Washington has no constructive ...
... issues include allegations of possible Russian connections into European politics, or perhaps also the other way around (we never hear about that). And the Skripal case. All these are secondary and solvable, issues, once the above hard-points are solved.
Syria
Andrey Kortunov:
Russia: the Power Broker in the Middle East?
If it is at all possible to speak of any “winner” in such an ugly civil-war, with perhaps 400,000 dead people and 5 million refugees out of 22 million previous inhabitants, it must ...
Russia and its partners can arguably win the war, but they cannot win the peace in Syria
Historically, the Middle East has never been a Russia’s strategic priority comparable to Europe, the North-East Pacific or even the Central Asia. Unlike many other major European powers, Russia had no colonial ambitions in the region; it never ...
... great powers on the general dynamics of development in the Middle East, most significant challenges and threats emanating from the region, possible mechanisms and sequencing of solutions to Middle East issues.
The discussion focuses on acute crises in Syria, Yemen, and Libya, as well as the Israeli-Palestinian conflict, and potential instability in other countries of the region. Aleksandr Aksenyonok, RIAC Vice-President, and Andrey Kortunov, RIAC Director General, represent Russian side at the meeting....
... which happened by developments inside the UK. We only want clarity. What will be the basis on which we continue to work with the European Union. What will be the basis on which we might someday restore the relations with the UK, when they take some reasonable ... ... Skripal, MH17, with the OPCW being an instrument of those, who would like to make this “highly likely” the order of the day in Syria.
Question:
Just returning to the Summit for a couple of final questions. Does it help Russia in her dealings with D.Trump ...
... new global role mainly in opposition to the West — both in the Middle East and in Eastern Europe. A policy of “compartmentalization” — i.e. to separate areas of agreement from those of disagreement — has reached its limits for instance in Syria. The new volatile and confusing strategic context in which both Germany and Russia operate is wider, bigger and fraught with far more intricacies and challenges.
In this new strategic context, Germany’s Russia policy has to take on responsibility ...
... secure a foothold in the Middle East through economic and political involvement in the stabilisation and reconstruction of Syria.
Germany’s Southern corridor to Greater Eurasia
A German pivot to the Middle East would have repercussions far beyond the European Union. It may open a Southern corridor to building Greater Eurasia. In the Middle East, and in particular in Syria, Germany has common security interests with two major Eurasian powers: Russia and China. German involvement in the political stabilisation and reconstruction of Syria, including through EU initiatives, would open new opportunities to develop dialogue ...
... recognition of its equal status, regain the role of a major outside power in the region, and keep Syria as its geopolitical and military stronghold.
Russia’s willingness to engage Europe on Ukraine and its offer of a coalition against Islamic State in Syria are linked to Moscow’s hopes progressively easing EU-imposed sanctions and restoring a modicum of economic relations with Western Europe.
Russia also hoped that developments in the European Union, including Brexit and elections in France, would lead to a less Atlanticist, less Russoskeptic EU. These hopes have also been disappointed.
Russia’s rupture with the West has increased the importance of the country’s non-Western partners....
... the delegation shared their
vision on the Middle East issues
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The following issues were discussed in the course of the meeting: the dynamics of social, economic, and political situation in the Middle East and North Africa; state and perspectives for Syrian conflict resolution; and opportunities for cooperation between Russia and the European Union in the region.
Andrey Kortunov, RIAC Director General, Timur Makhmutov, RIAC Deputy Director of Programs, and Ruslan Mamedov, RIAC Program Assistant, represented RIAC at the meeting.