Determining Factors of Election Protests in the Post-Soviet Space

... Systemic Crisis As in the Kyrgyz case, regardless of his falling popularity, Lukashenko seemed to not suffer from the lame-duck syndrome, as his departure was not expected. Nevertheless, there are two things that could explain the differences in the Belarussian case. First, Tikhanovskaya, as the main contender, was not part of the state apparatus and structures of power, which could have diminished the likelihood of certain segments of elites rallying behind her. Second, the security forces did not disobey the orders to suppress the demonstrations and retained their loyalty to Lukashenko. One could potentially consider other factors, such as the media or external support, to play a crucial role in the different outcome in ...