... prevent a major war with unpredictable consequences is running out. Neither in Washington, nor in Tehran they are eager to start such a war, but the mixture of the Iranian pride and the US arrogance makes a highly explosive cocktail.
Pyotr Kortunov:
JCPOA: Forward Into the Past
Unfortunately, all prospects for bilateral negotiations between Washington and Tehran are gone at least for another year. It means more than the end of hopes to reach a compromise on easing the US sanctions and on accepting ...
... much potential for cooperation in the Middle East, particularly in the Persian Gulf. Both sides share their support for the JCPOA, as well as multilateralism and inclusivity in their approaches to the Middle East. Both are concerned by terrorism, migration ... ... eliminate the head, the person that comes after is usually even more of a risk. The main priority now is to resolve the issue for thousands of ISIS fighters and affiliates, as well as wives and children who are in prison camps in North-East Syria and Iraq. This ...
... announced independent payment tool in relations with Iran (INSTEX) has not yet begun functioning even for humanitarian transactions. Without political support from the US, it could quickly wind up on the US Department of Treasury’s SDN list. Trump’s refusal to make exceptions for some European countries (Italy and Greece) in oil trade with Iran was also somewhat humiliating.
In the meantime, Iran made symbolic but unequivocal steps on withdrawing from the JCPOA. It is hard to argue against Tehran’s logic: if the deal is violated by one side and these violations lead to serious if not disastrous consequences for the other side’s economy, its commitments are conditional for it as well. Washington hastened ...
Sooner or later, the Emerging Situation Will Force the Trump Administration to Make the Difficult Choice between the JCPOA and a New War in the Middle East
In the last few months, the U.S.¬–Iran confrontation has been rapidly and steadily plunging the Middle East into the atmosphere of an impending armed conflict. The main stumbling block for Tehran and Washington ...
... there is no way of stopping it
Sanctions researchers and enforcers are acutely intrigued by the question of whether the new sanctions imposed by the United States on Iran would be effective. By withdrawing from the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA) on the Iranian nuclear program, the United States dealt a heavy blow to multilateral diplomacy. Approved by
UN Security Council Resolution 2231
Resolution 2231 (2015)
adopted by the UN Security Council at its 7488th meeting on July 20, 2015
,...
After US decision to withdraw from JCPOA and to reintroduce sanctions, Iran’s oil sector feels more pressure and uncertainty
Almost four years ago, after years of difficult negotiations, the Iran nuclear deal, also known as the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA), was signed....
... part, seem to have left room for manoeuvre: Tehran has so far only advanced an ultimatum and in fact has not yet torpedoed the JCPOA. But the very fact of this ultimatum has caused the US and remaining Western parties to the deal to see red, and ultimately ... ... tankers raised serious concerns among ship owners, leading to a local increase of oil prices. Third, Washington levelled accusations against Iran, effectively placing responsibility for the incidents on Tehran.
An important fact to note is that such ...
Any US action in Iran would profoundly benefit China’s interests in Iran and strengthen its position across the region
China’s rise in the Middle East is not simply a case of debt-trap diplomacy or expanding Chinese influence, it requires an ideological shift to accommodate a new regional player and the process of institutional change that that brings. Any US action in Iran would profoundly benefit China’s interests in Iran and strengthen its position across the region. Inviting China’s capital...
The fall of Iran could undermine Moscow's capacity for balancing in the Middle East
As US-Iran tensions are changing course beyond JCPOA and towards a possible military confrontation, the Russian factor is becoming more crucial. Russia's Middle East policy is marked with balancing acts that secure the country's role as an agile and effective balancing power. The fall of the Islamic ...
... European powers do not see completely eye to eye on these issues. Moscow is less adamant about the Iranian ballistic program, less prone to condemn so-called “destabilizing” activities in the region and is in any case not prepared to establish any causal effect between these matters and the implementation of the JCPOA. However, Russia and Europe do share some obvious common interests. Indeed, both want to avoid the non-proliferation crises that would ensue, were Tehran to decide to distance itself from the constraints of the JCPOA or the NPT, and both want to ...
