Logical Question is not Whether China Will Become the First Superpower? But when?

All propositions that indicate and predict the decline or rise of global powers remain subject to debate and uncertainty. There is no scientific method that allows for accurate predictions about the future of the global system. For example, if we consider that that the current tariff war between the United States and China, Rare Materials Wars, or the recent wars in Ukraine, Gaza and Lebanon, Yemen and Syria have raised serious questions about the global balance of power.

But here we must bear in mind, contrary to what is common among many academic elites, that changes in the balance of power at the level of international relations are no longer largely subject to a "zero-sum game"; on the contrary, it has become a "non-zero-sum game". That is, an increase in the influence, authority and power of one county does not necessarily mean that other countries lose their influence.

Moreover, the fact that one country is the most powerful no longer means at all that it is the only country that possesses or monopolizes power and influence. In this context, we can address the problematic of trying to compare the growing power of China and the declining position of the United States. Here we must draw attention to the fact that this decline is due more to the change in the nature of the global system than to the military or political weakness of the United States, or both. This is a result of the inevitability of the profound changes and transformations that the structure of global society has undergone.

It is clear that contemporary international relations are now based on a system with power distributed rather than concentrated in one direction, as there are intersections and intertwinings of interests and influences. But despite all these facts, we cannot ignore the basic dialectic:

How is it possible that the real influence of American power did not last more than 25 years?

Moreover, based on extrapolated conclusions related to the fall of empires or the current reality of world politics, it is clear that the relative decline of American power will continue regardless of attempts to correct it. Consequently, the most logical questions may focus not on whether China will become the world's first superpower, but:

• When will that happen? And does China really want or think about assuming the responsibility of world leadership?
• And if China has such a desire, is it willing to do so? Does this serve its strategic interests at the current moment?

Based on the repercussions of recent wars, conflicts and crises at all levels (political, economic, and cultural), it is possible to address the problems of classification of the global system, which are linked to the terms unipolarity or bipolarity, which have lost their meaning. It seems difficult to see a global system controlled by one or even two poles. This is due to many qualitative factors, whether military, economic, political, cultural, environmental, technological, etc., which have become among the most important determinants of international relations, including, but not limited to:

• There is no single country that enjoys superiority in all elements of power.
• The era of knowledge that crosses political, cultural and security borders.
• The phenomenon of terrorism in all its manifestations.
• The environmental issue and climate change in all its aspects.
• The problematic demographics and migration.
• Dilemmas of artificial intelligence and scientific and technological progress at all levels.
• The interconnection and multiplicity of influence of many forces within the global economy.

• Radical changes in the standards for measuring military and security capabilities.

Therefore, it can be said that the world of international relations today is subject to an apolar system. As a result of the inevitable pattern of changes that have increased the scope of complexities associated with the issues of terrorism, environment, technology, media, real, rare materials, and electronic viruses, etc. This pattern supports the non-polar system according to several trends or paths, including:

• Many flows occur outside the control of states and therefore limit the influence of great powers.
• Some developments serve regional countries and increase their margin of effectiveness and independence.
• The existence of enormous wealth and influence subject to the control of new active forces, such as non-governmental organizations, transnational corporations, political movements, individuals,…etc.

In light of the above, we are currently in an era far removed from the classic classifications associated with the term polarity, not to mention the difficulty of fully understanding the enormous structural transformations in the structure of the global economy and the reality of international politics.

Therefore, it must be kept in mind that although the apolar system is inevitable, it requires caution, as it may generate more randomness and instability. Where logically, the problematic now lies in how to find the kind of balances and understandings associated with the configuration of the non-polar world.

In the context of talking about balances, we must remember the fact that the regularity system will not emerge on its own or automatically. Even if the apolar system is left to function according to its randomness or spontaneity, this will make it more complex and dangerous and thus move towards more chaos and absurdity. Consequently, attention must be directed to potential risks, where an apolar world order will complicate political diplomacy and alliances will lose much of their importance, because they require strategic vision to face predictable threats and compromises.

But unfortunately, not all of these standards are expected to be available in a non-polar world. On this basis, it is extremely difficult to predict future political scenarios, which seems like a scientific task of enormous proportions, which forces us to adopt and raise a series of questions about the nature of the powers capable (in particular, China) of taking the initiative and assuming the responsibility of global leadership in the light of a non-polar system.