#COP21. How Some parameters of the BRIC countries have changed from 1992 to 2015

A new draft agreement, shorter than the previous one, has been released yesterday. The most critical divergences still persist, as countries’ coalitions are still far from deciding, for example how many degrees world temperature should be allowed to rise (whether by 1,5 or 2 degrees). In this sense the United States have been playing a curious strategy, trying to isolate India and China by advocating a maximum increase of 1.5 degrees. This proposal was strongly objected by India’s environmental minister Prakash Javadekar who declared: “(…)a 1.5C goal would require developed countries to massively reduce their emissions and massively scale up their financial support to developing countries. This is not happening.”

 

How much developing countries should participate in the effort of cutting emissions is the main object of the ongoing debate. In fact richer countries expect them to take a firm stance over this matter, arguing that the world has changed since 1992, when the first climate agreement was signed.

 

But has the world really changed since then? And in what extent?

 

In 1992, the United Nations Framework Conventions on Climate Changed was signed in Rio. For the first time in history, UN countries recognized that global warming was a problem, and set a roadmap for reducing greenhouse emissions. The burden was mainly carried by developed countries, who were expected to cut, by the year 2000, their emission at the 1990 level.

 

Twenty three years later, how have the world GDP, the total population and the global emission changed? Is it still fair to place most of the burden just on those countries that were considered rich at the time?

 

In the following charts, taken from the World Bank Database, I have decided to analyse how some parameters of the so called BRIC countries (Brazil, Russia, India and China) have changed during these twenty three years, also compared to the world average.

 

GDP per capita and GDP growth

 

In this first chart, we can see, how these countries are doing with respect to the GDP per capita. Both in 1992 and now, they are all below world average. India and China, however were far below in 1992: this was also driven by the great population these two countries have, that water downs the actual value. All these countries have seen an improvement in this sense, and in 2015 Russia is the closest to the world average. China, at the same time, is the one who has improved the most, while India that is still the lowest among the considered countries, has still managed to increase by three times his 1992 GDP.

 

 

Those big changes in these two countries are reflected in the second graph, that shows the GDP growth in the considered period. Even though there has been a small reduction in the past couple years, China and India are well above world average. At the same time all the other considered countries have enjoyed period of extent growth in the past decade.

 

 

Poverty

 

Tackling poverty has always been a key issue for every government and every international organization. Looking at the headcount ratio of people living with a daily income of less than $1.90, this number has increased dramatically in the mentioned period. In 1992, almost six Chinese out of ten were living below this poverty line, 46% of Indian and around 34% of Brazilian. Nowadays, this figure has dropped to, respectively, 11,2%, 21% and 3%, while Russia has managed to bring this number to 0.

 

 

Environmental Indicators

 

At the same time, due to this conspicuous economic enrichment, CO2 emissions in many of these countries have spiked up. China has passed from a yearly consumption of 2,3 metric ton of CO2 pro capita, to more than 6 in 2011. India has almost doubled this value as well, passing from 0,7 to 1,7 in 2011 as well.

 

 

In the last graph we can notice how much those countries rely on fossil fuels; Russia and China use this kind of energy in order to satisfy around 90% of their annual needs.

 

 

Therefore, given that China and India, put together, account for more than two billion people, and since their economics are growing they will need more and more resources in the next decades, their contribution in this effort become essential. They are not those developing countries they were more than twenty years ago. And the success of an eventual agreement will also depend on their commitment and their willingness to abide to it.