Russian Defense Developments in East Asia: An American Perspective

Of late American military commanders and defense planners have consistently expressed concern over the rise of Russian military power. They consider this to be both a threat to the United States and a concerted Russian effort to counter US power.

 

While Moscow and Washington do— and should— view each other first and foremost as nation-states, regional context is necessary for the two countries to better understand each other’s interests. East Asia comprises a unique set of challenges for the Russian Federation.

 

Recent Russian defense developments in Northeast Asia certainly cause concern for American officials in the Pacific Command (PACOM) Area of Responsibility. Yet East Asia contains a plethora of states developing their military prowess. The United States is certainly not the only, nor even necessarily the primary motivator in Russia's defense calculations in East Asia, particularly in Moscow's efforts to strengthen the Russian Navy's Pacific Fleet capabilities.

 

Late last month the Russian Pacific Fleet received an additional Borei-class nuclear submarine, the Vladimir Monomakh, joining the Borei-class SSBN Alexander Nevsky. In addition to the arrival of two nuclear submarines, the Russian Pacific Fleet's nuclear vessels' basing facilities have undergone logistical refurbishments.

 

American defense planners will likely view this as a direct challenge to the United States' position in the Asia-Pacific. Many Western analysts refer to the ongoing China-Russia rapprochement in terms of the creation of an inherently anti-US bloc. The joint naval exercises between China and Russia in the contested South China Sea have added to anxieties that Russia is solidifying its position as a security partner for China.

 

Nevertheless, analysts and policymakers must not lose sight of the fact that China's increasing military prowess in Northeast Asia also poses problems for the Russian Federation, and that China's rise is a driving force behind Russia's recent efforts to amplify its own defense posture.

 

During a recent shuffle in the Chinese military's areas of responsibility, the People's Liberation Army Navy (PLAN)'s North Sea Fleet was placed under central command. Anonymous sources state that this has been done with the intention of helping to protect the Chinese mainland (including the capital) from, among others, potential Russian threats. The PLAN is also working to increase the number of both diesel-electric and nuclear-powered submarines in the North Sea Fleet. The Federation of American Scientists has reported at least five sightings of Jin-class SSBN's.

 

The recent positive developments in Japan-Russia relations have caused angst in Washington, although members of the American foreign policy élite have expressed understanding at Japan's moves to ameliorate its ties with Russia. Japan has taken a decidedly understanding position on Russia's military activities in the Pacific region. Japanese officials have expressed their understanding that, given the rise of China as well as the current overhaul of Russia's Pacific military forces, Russia needs to test its military operational readiness.

 

Nevertheless, Russian defense cannot ignore the possibility of military confrontation with Japan, even if such a threat is currently not imminent. For the 2016 fiscal year, the Japanese defense ministry released an expenditure plan that allotted approximately USD 230 million on anti-submarine patrol helicopters, USD 600 million for the construction of a new Soryu-class submarine and USD 29 million for life extensions on four Oyashio-class submarines.

 

One may argue that Japan is, militarily, an extension of the United States' defense position in Northeast Asia. Yet Japan's willingness to risk US ire by improving relations with Russia where it can shows that Tokyo is willing to conduct its foreign policy more independently. Therefore, Japan should receive consideration as a separate actor and not simply as part of a broader US-centric defense network in Northeast Asia.

 

Both the rise of China and Japan's respective military capabilities are reasons to cause concern among planners and commanders in Russia's Eastern Military District. The United States, therefore, should respond to the strengthening of the Russian Pacific Fleet as it would any other major development of a similar nature- recognize it as a potential challenge to American interests.

 

At the same time policymakers and other planners must understand Russia's broader naval strategy as a response to defense developments across East Asia. While understanding this view will probably not assuage Russia-US strategic tensions in the Asia-Pacific region, a failure for the two sides to understand each other will certainly not help mitigate tensions between Moscow and Washington in East Asia.