All the countries of the Balkan region put high priority in their foreign policy on joining the EU. If they stay outside the EU, fragile peace in the Balkans may again come under threat and it will pose another challenge for the rest of Europe. Russia can use the EU enlargement to the Balkans for strengthening its positions both in the region and European space in general.
All the countries of the Balkan region put high priority in their foreign policy on joining the EU. If they stay outside the EU, fragile peace in the Balkans may again come under threat and it will pose another challenge for the rest of Europe. Russia can use the EU enlargement to the Balkans for strengthening its positions both in the region and European space in general.
Opportunities and risks for the EU
Integration of the Balkan states in the EU will secure prosperity and stability in the region. The atmosphere of trust may lay the groundwork for the future constructive process. Their joining the EU will increase both collective and individual opportunities of the Balkan states for progress-making. That said these countries have to create efficient economy in the region without reliance on EU’s financial help.
It’s not only the Balkan states that are interested in the integration in the EU. There are no differences within the EU over the accession of these countries because the Balkans is viewed in Europe as its integral part. The EU Summit in Thessaloniki in June 21, 2003 reaffirmed its principle readiness of the EU to admit Albania, Bosnia and Herzegovina, Serbia, Montenegro and Croatia to the European Union. At a joint meeting with the leaders of the six West-Balkan states the Council of Europe endorsed two documents – “The Thessaloniki Agenda for the Western Balkans - Towards European Integration” and “The Thessaloniki EU-Western Balkans Declaration”.
Besides, it was envisaged to significantly enhance the EU financial assistance to these countries.
The ongoing enlargement process is regarded as a way to retain European political legacy in the times of a deep crisis. The EU enlargement deems necessary for the building of an economically and politically united Europe stretching from the Atlantic Ocean to the Black Sea.
The EU Balkan strategy is characterized by the growing institutional restructuring of bilateral relations – the dialogue between the civil societies is gaining momentum, the regional cooperation is developing and economic ties are strengthening. The EU carries out civil missions with limited responsibilities in the Balkans. In January 2003 the EU committed itself to a policing EUPM/BiH mission in Bosnia and Herzegovina, and in December 2004 – a military mission EUFOR ALTHEA. In 2003 it started the policing operation Proxima in Macedonia. The EU EULEX mission for promoting the rule of law is under way in Kosovo . Besides, the EU is building an extensive network of bilateral relations underpinned by inter-governmental meetings (with Serbia and Albania) or ministerial councils meetings (with Croatia). The main instruments for such cooperation are Central-European Initiative sponsored by Italy, Austria, Hungary and former Yugoslavia, and Adriatic-Ionic Initiative, developed by Italy jointly with Greece and Slovenia and in cooperation with the European Commission and the Committee on Regions. Both initiatives currently perform the role of potential instruments and catalysts for the development and implementation of multilateral projects in the region.
At the same time the plans of admitting new problem states to the EU amid deep conceptual crisis are fiercely opposed by the European public opinion. EU taxpayers see in every new candidate-state the country the EU will sooner or later will have to bail out. Frustration at enlargement exacerbates the crisis of European solidarity. The Greek debt crisis, differences over the Schengen Agreements as well as over the “original” and “newly-admitted” member-states’ values and economic weakness of the latter prevent the EU from agreeing on common values and could be regarded as an unfavorable environment for further enlargement.
The prospects for the Balkan states to become full-fledged EU members
Situation in the Balkans continues to be described by ethnic tensions and the unsettled inter-state relations.
In Bosnia and Herzegovina the EU seeks to keep territorial integrity and multi-ethnic structure of the country which seems to be the hallmark of peaceful co-existence of the population groups of different faiths. That said Bosnia is unable to meet numerous EU admission requirements. The viability of B&H is called into question, and new rearrangement of borders in the Balkans is unacceptable for Europe. What is needed is the constitutional reform which will outlaw any ethnic discrimination. In order to make amendments to the constitution it’s necessary to get Bosnian Serbs to cooperate with the Muslims and the Croats. In fact, it’s only the prospect of the EU membership that will make B&H finally abandon the policy resulting in the country’s breakup and self-isolation and adopt a new model of economic and social development based on integration and openness. Therefore, the EU membership is vital for B&H as the only possibility for controlled sustainable development.
The prospects of Albania for the EU membership are also fairly small, as the socio-economic situation in the country is practically the gravest in Europe. However, its bid is strongly supported by Italy. Albania is Italy’s supplier of energy resources which Rome is pretty short of, therefore it is intensifying its cooperation with Tirana and is its major trade partner. Besides, a great number of Albanian immigrants found refuge in Italy.
Serbia is interesting for the European Union due to its strategically important position in the region both in military, political and economic terms. But in the long-term perspective the EU can not but be concerned about Serbia’s historically strong ties with Moscow and its reluctance to join NATO. Many EU member-states, Central European countries in particular, seek to prevent Russia’s growing influence in the Balkans and insist that Belgrade formalize its security priorities by joining NATO. Brussels expects Belgrade to assume responsibility for stabilization in the region. These issues may with time become an obstacle on the path to a full integration of Serbia into the European Union which calls Belgrade’s commitment to the European political goals into question.
However, Serbian political elite sees its future in EU and will not give up this idea for the sake of deepening relations with Russia. The Serbian government points out that the strengthening of the cooperation with Russia is fully in line with Belgrade’s strategic commitment to the idea of European integration. In its effort to become an EU member Serbia enjoys significant economic and political support of Germany which strives to make the Balkans the area of German influence.
Kosovo hosts the EU mission EULEX on `promoting the rule of law. The aim of the mission is to prevent a new escalation of the conflict what can make European resources dry up. The establishment by the European Union EULEX and ICO missions (), as well as other multilateral mechanisms was prompted by the EU’s determination to prevent Kosovo from turning into a safe haven for organized crime, terrorism, corruption and illegal immigration rather than by political or economic interests.
Although Kosovo’s independence has not so far been recognized by some EU member-states it has good chances for the EU membership. Kosovo has for some time already been living under the EU patronage, and the European Union wants to keep on controlling this territory.
The UN General Assembly recommended Belgrade and Pristina to start under the EU auspices trade negotiations and discuss bilaterally the issues of energy, environment, healthcare, border fixing, tracing of the missing persons and returning the displaced people to their homes. Simultaneously, Europe is exercising pressure on Belgrade forcing it to reach compromise with Pristina, with Serbia’s aspiration for the EU membership being the main lever of this pressure. Germany hints unequivocally that Serbia must recognize Kosovo’s independence if it wants to join the EU. Austria makes it clear that the timing of Serbia’s membership negotiations depends on Belgrade’s efforts to come to grips with territorial conflict with its neighbors. If Belgrade fails to recognize Kosovo’s independence before it becomes the EU member, this unresolved conflict will be frozen because Serbia will get the right to veto any European decision on Pristina.
Montenegro which de-facto belongs to the Euro-zone and the Common market single economic space has excellent prospects for the EU membership. The EU investment interest in this country is steadily growing. Montenegro sets a good example of establishing bilateral relations with other Balkan states. That said Podgorica has to decide on the legal status of Kosovo refugees.
It is the prospect of the EU membership that prevents different ethnic groups in Macedonia from sliding into intestine war. The membership will serve a stabilizing factor for the country. At the same time Macedonia is in hostilities with Greece over its name. Greece demands that “Macedonia” have a name different from the name of the Greek region known to belong to Athens. Greece is determined to block Macedonia’s accession to the EU.
Croatia’s membership in the EU has been again postponed. The initial refusal to extradite to the Hague Gen. Gotovina charged with war crimes against the Serbs sidelined Zagreb in 2007 bout of EU enlargement. As of today, deteriorating economic situation in the EU and the conviction of Gotovina led to growing frustration of Croats with the idea of the EU membership. However, according to the European Commission Croatia may become EU member as early as 2013.
On the whole, it seems that the Balkan EU-candidate countries will be considered by the European Union in a single package that will allow them to be admitted to the EU in one lot.
The prospects of the development of Russia’s relations with the Balkan states in case of their EU membership
One of Russia’s foreign policy priorities in the Balkans is the development of economic and energy cooperation with the countries of the region. The participation of the Balkan states in the South Stream gas pipeline project is essential. The pipeline is supposed to run along the Black Sea seabed first to Bulgaria, then one branch will go via Greece to Italy and the other will connect Serbia, with an offshoot to Bosnia and Herzegovina, with Croatia, Slovenia, Hungary and Austria (the final route hasn’t been agreed yet). Besides, the construction of “Druzhba-Adria” oil pipeline going through Belarus, Ukraine, Slovakia and Hungary to Croatia is currently being planned. Gazprom owns the two largest oil and gas companies in Serbia and controls the market of petro-products in the country after it has bought into the ownership Serbian gas distribution grid. Russia is interested in modernizing Serbian railways and investing in travel industry. More and more Croatian companies are looking at Russia as a priority for their business. Croatian investors demonstrate growing interest in the Russian market and realization of joint projects. That said the diversification of energy supplies in Europe poses a threat to the promotion of Russia’s economic influence in the Balkans.
There is still much tension between Moscow and Brussels over the policy in the Balkans. In particular, some EU countries recognized Kosovo’s independence despite stark opposition of Moscow. The trend to view the conflicts in the Balkans from geopolitical perspective and take side of only one party to the conflict is obvious. Instead, Russia and the EU should work out a new approach and concentrate on resolving the conflicts and strengthening security.
Russia should devise new mechanisms of linking the EU enlargement process with the creation of new European security architecture. Peaceful co-existence of states with different ethnic and religious populations, friendly and partner relations of these states with Moscow are the main Russian priorities in the Balkans.
It cannot be allowed that the Balkan countries be faced with the alternative – to develop relations either with Russia or the EU. In its turn, to strengthen its ties with Brussels Moscow should develop mutually beneficial relations and launch projects with the participation of the Balkan states.
Thus, the Balkan states membership in the EU will secure support for Russia and facilitate the promotion of its interests in the common European space.
