The newspaper in a hundred years’ time
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Member of the Union of Journalists and the Union of Russian Writers, Senior Editor, Strategy of Russia magazine
Journalists, experts, and publishers have for a long time expressed genuine concern over the future for print media, which many say is increasingly bleak due to pressure from electronic editions and television. Many experts today consider any discussion of print or newspaper journalism a waste of time, since the days of the paper as a mass medium are drawing to a close.
Journalists, experts, and publishers have for a long time expressed genuine concern over the future for print media, which many say is increasingly bleak due to pressure from electronic editions and television. Many experts today consider any discussion of print or newspaper journalism a waste of time, since the days of the paper as a mass medium are drawing to a close.
One Format – Four Centuries
Invented in 1439 by Johannes Gutenberg, the printing press laid the technical foundations for the newspaper industry. Other printing components emerged, such as metal characters, large format paper, and more importantly, cheap sheet paper, as well as viscous dyes based on mineral pigments and plant drying oils. At the beginning of the 16th century, more than 200 printing presses were operating in Western Europe and in the 50 years following its invention, eight million books were produced. It was only in the early 17th century that the idea of taking the publishing techniques used for books and applying them to news periodicals surfaced.
Europe’s first newspaper was published in 1609, in Strasbourg by printer Johann Carolus. It had no title, just the heading, Relation aller Fürnemmen und gedenckwürdigen Historien or Account of All Distinguished and Commemorable News. The entries themselves were the news. The first issue included reports from Antwerp, Cologne, Venice, Rome and Vienna. In 1631, La Gazette, already bearing more of a resemblance to a modern newspaper, came out in France. Its circulation of 1,200 copies, comparable to some local newspapers today, was truly massive for that time.
Peter's first printed newspaper
"Vedomosti"
So, for 400 years the newspaper has remained unchanged in essential format – a few sheets of paper folded together carrying printed short news stories, analytical articles, and illustrations. However, these four centuries saw printing technology undergo several revolutionary changes: from separate metal characters to linotype and computer typing; from bands with typesetting to metal forms; from a portrait engraved on metal to digital pictures; from the printing press to rotation machines. Only the newspaper itself remained virtually unchanged: evolving from a single-page Vedomosti in the times of Peter the Great to a plump Kommersant, along the way acquiring illustrations (first black-and-white then color).
At this point, the pessimists predicting the inevitable demise of the newspaper should ask themselves why it remained untouched in form for four centuries and immune from innovations world over – unlike everything else, from clothing to national cuisine. There must surely be a reason for this uncommon endurance.
Over these four centuries, the newspaper’s approach to presenting news has remained unchanged. The answer as to why this should be the case is obvious: it is the simplest and therefore the most reliable approach, responding to the reader’s psychology and even to their physiology. In order to watch the news on television or get it from the Internet, you first have to turn on the TV or computer, then there’s the issue of tuning – which could be problematic in public transport or the countryside. All you need to read a paper is eyes and hands!
Different Strokes for Different Folks
Soviet farmers listen radio, in August 1941
Predictions of the newspaper’s demise as a medium are relentless. This sad news sounded particularly convincing when first television, and then the Internet achieved dramatic developmental leaps forward. As soon as the satellite communications network emerged, making it possible for the Moscow TV signal to be accessible across the country, journalists immediately declared TV to be the humble newspaper’s gravedigger, and talented young print journalists rushed to join TV editorial offices. Roman A. Karpel, a Moskovsky Komsomolets veteran who worked there until retirement, told me in the mid-1970s that the newspaper had already been pronounced dead in the 1930s, following the radio boom. In those days, young “skilful pens” from journalism departments flooded into radio.
Interestingly, during the 1970-1980's, the TV was also titled the gravedigger of the theater. The theater crisis certainly occurred, but it was more a result of the painful social upheavals of the late 1980's-early 1990's, than a response to the development of TV, i.e. the reasons behind it were purely social and financial. Now the theater is not only alive and kicking, but doing fine thanks to its audience. With the Internet permeating everyday life, people tend to say that the electronic media will bury their print alternatives.
But those who predict the demise of the newspaper, perhaps unwisely, forget about its peculiarities, and those of its readership. Traditional and new media have different audiences. Those who get their news via mobile phone, laptop or car radio as a rule do not read newspapers. Therefore, it seems reasonable to assume that there is no overlap between the new media fans and the afficionados of print media.
Television and newspaper audiences also differ in how they perceive the information they receive. Most TV viewers are unlikely to have either the time or the inclination to ponder much over the information barrage they receive when they switch on the set. Newspaper readers, however, usually have time to read and contemplate, which in turn defines how print news stories are presented.
The newspaper develops its regular audience by preserving the form used to present the news intact, creating a psychological mechanism that engages two more drivers, i.e. the ideological and economic levers of influence.
From Information to Analysis
The Daily
Although television, Internet and the radio continue to grow, for some obscure reason, the newspaper survives. Moreover, far from being at death’s door, it shows all the signs of being a healthy organism adapting to a changing environment. Available in color and, in a sense, multichannel, today’s leading national publications offer regional issues and numerous thematic or interest-based supplements.
Of course, sooner or later, the paper will assimilate new technologies and will be delivered over the Internet to a compact gadget to be read at home, in public transport, or while out fishing. But this will happen only when microcomputers and stable communication systems become widespread and truly comparable to today’s ink on paper. Then the e-newspaper will become as easy to read as a regular print version is today. In January 2011, media mogul Rupert Murdoch launched the e-newspaper The Daily, accessible via iPad. However, eight months later it was revealed that the newspaper had just 100,000 subscribers globally, and was making massive losses. This is just further evidence of a certain disconnect between the technology and the accessibility of the technology-based product, especially in terms of consumer affordability. We have to wait until the e-newspaper becomes affordable for the general public. There is no doubt that, despite upcoming dramatic changes in its appearance, the newspaper will remain the same in terms of essence, content and how material is presented. It will survive. Not because it is better than TV, radio or the Internet, but thanks to differences in the particular challenges it faces, the solutions it finds, and how it responds to its audience.
The development of newspaper as a means for delivering analysis offers a promising path for its continued existence, and opens up a future battleground for readers, circulation wars, and competition between advertisers and sponsors. With the TV and Internet on the rise, the newspaper is definitely losing its information-delivery function, while becoming a powerful analytical tool in shaping public consciousness.
If the newspaper per se has proved itself to be surprisingly resilient, the same cannot be said of dailies, which find themselves hugely vulnerable when confronted with the need to compete with TV and mobile media.
The newspaper’s niche in the information market is unique and, by definition, cannot be occupied by any other media. It is becoming increasingly analysis-oriented, irrespective of publishers', editors' and journalism theorists' opinions.
If the newspaper per se has proved itself to be surprisingly resilient, the same cannot be said of dailies, which find themselves hugely vulnerable when confronted with the need to compete with TV and mobile media.
As a rule, the newspaper is printed in the evening when the main news has already been made public in TV bulletins and online updates. The daily paper reaches the reader the next morning, but offers merely yesterday’s news. Therefore, as it evolves, the newspaper will gradually display a shift in editorial policy – from delivering information to analytical articles, and from topical items to weekly reviews. Even now, keeping abreast of this trend, the newspaper has to make numerous revisions to issue periodicity, volume, size, and even design. So, apart from acquiring the tabloid format (half the size of broadsheets), big daily newspapers are starting to publish plump weekly editions, Komsomolskaya Pravda being just one such example.
Over these four centuries, the newspaper’s approach to presenting news has remained unchanged. The answer as to why this should be the case is obvious: it is the simplest and therefore the most reliable approach.
Many years ago, multipage newspapers were a rarity: Nedelya, Literaturnaya Rossia, Literaturnaya Gazeta, Economika I Zhizn, Sobesednik, AiF. Today multipagers are published mainly in a weekly tabloid format, and have become the most widespread type of paper. And in the near future they are likely to move beyond dominating print media – to defining it, having such advantages as the freedom of arranging events by importance, analyzing these events underway and forecasting their short- and long-term impact.
In order to satisfy those readers with more modern news needs, most newspapers have created their own websites offering online editions of current issues. In other words, the newspaper has assimilated this new mode of delivery.
Get Local
The newspaper "Petrozvodsk" - one of
the nominees national competition for the best
Russian regional newspaper
(New Eurasia Foundation, 2011)
According to the World Association of Newspapers (WAN), in the five years to 2008 the global circulation of paid-for and free newspapers increased by 9.95 percent. The press remains the world’s leading advertising medium, controlling 40 percent of the market. Experts predict that this trend is set to continue. “Newspapers are much better off than many tend to think,” says Timothy Balding, CEO of WAN. “The figures confirm that the industry is healthy and vigorous, coping with increasing competition from other media. The fashion of predicting the death of newspapers should be exposed for what it is – nothing more than a fashion, based on common assumptions that are belied by the facts.”.
The Russian Periodical Press Market report issued by the Federal Agency for Press and Mass Communications in 2010 stated that, in the late 2000s, despite the economic crisis, the volume of newspapers, their audience, and advertising revenues all grew. Newspapers are switching over to full color in droves, and ever more are adopting the compact tabloid format. Most importantly, investment in the printing industry and new pre-press technologies is also expanding. Note that this is long-term investment: the payback will take years. The publishers therefore are quite optimistic about the future of print media as print shops’ main customers.
Daily newspapers, including those established by the central and municipal authorities, are being transformed into weeklies. In general, even the papers issued by Russian administrative centers and small towns felt reasonably safe when the crisis was in full swing, indicating that the newspaper industry seems sure to retain its competitiveness.
In order to survive the coming century, the print media will face two interrelated.
However, the print press has its problems. The main one being quality, since the attractiveness of half the newspapers in both appearance and content terms leaves much to be desired. Improving quality is sure to result in competitive recovery.
Focusing this discussion in on Russia - according to average data for the past decade, national newspapers’ share of the overall Russian print media market ranged from 1.5 to 2 percent. In other words, just over 400 out of nearly 30,000 newspapers in Russia are nationals. The rest are interregional, regional and district-wide. Regional and local newspapers in particular are the main providers of local news and discussion sites for regional issues. “Today in Russia the local press is not only a major integrating tool maintaining the unity of different areas and the country as a whole, but is also an important instrument of information support to ongoing reforms,” says Mikhail Seslavinsky, head of the Federal Agency for Press and Mass Communications.
First comes the need to make significant changes to editorial policy, moving from information to analysis. The second is to take full advantage of the latest technologies available.
The current trend indicates that in a hundred years’ time “national” newspapers are likely to vanish, with the national-level events being covered by mobile media rather than by federal newspapers.
But alongside that demise, we will see golden age of regional and local publications, which will always have their readers because central TV or the Internet pay little attention to local news. And since neighborhood TV channels are not in the offing, town or regional newspapers are unlikely to face competition in the near or even remote future.
I have no doubt that in 2099 editions of these papers will be released under the headline “Happy New Year, Dear Readers!”
Concept of the flexible translucent electronic
newspaper in the liquid E-ink
In order to survive the coming century, the print media, including the regional or local press, will face two interrelated challenges. First comes the need to make significant changes to editorial policy, moving from information to analysis, i.e. preserving the newspaper format while adopting magazine content. The second is to take full advantage of the latest technologies available, making a paper edition look attractive, and ensuring that its electronic version is interactive, mobile and compatible with all delivery platforms.
Since these tasks are quite feasible, newspapers have every reason to look to this future with optimism.
Technology does not stand still. Newspapers in a hundred years will be printed on the finest, durable, paper made of composite materials rather than cellulose. In the future, used papers will be not thrown away but recycled, for example, for biofuel additives.
It goes without saying that the e-newspaper will make use of all the available high-tech achievements. For example, making it possible for entries to be “played back” like a movie. Or automatically getting links to other publications on the same subject in the global network. Or even contacting the article’s main subject for a discussion.
Yet the format and look of the printed edition are unlikely to undergo drastic change. Along with the trouser suit, the axe and the sail, the newspaper is one of the most long-lived inventions of mankind. In the early 1990s, computer technologies let Russian newspaper makers realize their wildest fantasies. However, the conservative form proved its vitality and prevailed. And newspapers, using technologies unheard of thirty years ago, still remain largely the same in appearance, with text formatted in columns, because this is easier to read on a large sheet.
This tradition has had such an impact since it is the readers’ approach to the activity of reading that has helped the newspaper survive for four centuries, even though, during this time, the world has altered beyond recognition.
It would be truly fascinating to take a look at e-media a hundred years from now! If, of course, it still exists.
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