PUBLISH OR PERISH?

Why are Russian scientists publishing fewer articles in international journals? What motivates them to publish in such journals? What steps can be taken to promote international publications?

The slogan “publish or perish” has become the motto of scientists from many countries. The meaning of this expression is simple – lack of quality publications makes it impossible to make a career in the academia, regardless of whether it is in a university or a research institute.

Why are Russian scientists publishing fewer articles in international journals? What motivates them to publish in such journals? What steps can be taken to promote international publications?

The slogan “publish or perish” has become the motto of scientists from many countries. The meaning of this expression is simple – lack of quality publications makes it impossible to make a career in the academia, regardless of whether it is in a university or a research institute. Fierce discussions on the issue of whether or not the number of publications and the impact factor reflect on the work of a scientist do not change the fact that the number of publications and citations determines the scientific potential of individual researchers, organizations and countries.

Publications by Russian scientists in international journals: a lot or a little?

The preparation of the Presidential Decree “On measures to implement the state policy in the field of education and science” (May 2012) () relied on this logic. Among other things, the Decree set the task of ensuring the achievement of the following indicators: education – at least five Russian universities should make it in the top one hundred world’s leading universities according to world ranking by 2020; science – an increase in domestic expenditure on research and development up to 1.77% of GDP by 2015, and an increase in the proportion of publications by Russian researchers in the total number of publications in the international scientific journals indexed in the WEB of Science database up to 2.44% by 2015. Where are we now and how easy is it to achieve the above targets?

According to Web of Science (WoS) – the most comprehensive global database of publications in scientific journals, provided by Thomson Reuters – Russia is currently in the 13th place by number of publications and in the 22nd place by their citations. For comparison, two years ago (during the indexing of January 01, 2010), Russia was ranked 11th by number of publications, while two years before (1998-2008), it ranked 10th. WoS includes mostly English-language international journals, the proportion of journals in national languages in it is rather small. So, its ranking reflects international publication activity. (International journals also include journals published in Russia in English, and translated versions of the Russian academic journals, since the language of publications and the system of distribution of journals make research results available to the global community of scientists.)

A comparison of recent measurements in a ten-year interval shows a slight increase in the number of publications: from 254,848 (2000-2010) to 260,291 (2002-2012) but with the expansion of the list of Russian publications indexed in 33 items in recent years. Nevertheless, in relative terms, Russia’s share has declined. Not too long ago, it was 2.52% over the five-year period from 2005 to 2009. Achieving a lower bracket of 2.44% by 2015 against this background seems a modest task. For example, the Vice-President of the Russian Academy of Sciences Prof. G. Mesyats believes this figure is small and achievable, of course, with the support of the Russian Academy of Sciences. However, the developments with other countries’ publications should also be taken into account.

Let’s present some data on publications and impact factor of three leading countries, and the BRICS countries. India, which held 12th place two years ago, and moved up to 11th place, being ahead of Russia. Brazil is also increasing its potential. Russian scientists are publishing by 3.5 times less articles than the Chinese. There is also lagging behind by impact factor (see Table 1).

A closer look at the situation in certain areas of knowledge shows that Russian scientists maintain a meaningful presence only in a few of them. There are publications only in two areas – physics and chemistry – and these publications make up about half of all international scientific publications by Russia (see Table 2). At the same time, China’s strategy in this period consisted of “frontal” promotion of research in almost all areas.

One can hardly expect a sharp rise in publications in fields of science that are traditionally “problematic” for Russia (places in the second and third top ten world ranking). In this context, the task of increasing the share of publications in WoS to 2.44% by 2015 is more ambitious than it seems at first glance (Strictly speaking, Russia’s share can be increased by either increasing the number of articles published in journals indexed by WoS at a pace exceeding the average level of the rest of the world, or by WoS including new Russian journals in its indexed list. The last option is quite possible – a few years ago, WoS added 33 Russian natural science journals to its list. There are also reserves in the social sciences, where still only three journals are indexed in Russian). Given a normal “life cycle” of an article (1.5 to 2 years from writing to publication in a journal), studies on which articles will be published in three years time should go in full swing now.

Where do authors of articles published in international journals work?

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The role played by concentration of talents

We have already started talking about the concentration of highly skilled professionals as one of the conditions for a world-class research. Let’s move on now to the level of organizations from the level of country and areas of science. So, where are international publications “produced”?

Unique information on highly cited Russian scientists is contained on the Expert Corps website [1], a list of which is made according to WoS. As of the end of May 2012, this list included 3,531 people working in Russia, and 433 outside the country (but designated Russia as their place of work at least once in the publications within the last seven years). The share of highly cited Russian scientists working abroad (about 11%), can be interpreted in two ways: first as an indicator of the “brain drain” (let’s not forget that the real “brain” is connected with scientists who did not indicate affiliation with Russia) and second as an indicator of internationalization.

Below are data on the concentration of highly cited scientists by Russian cities (see Table 3). 77% of all professionals with a total citation of more than 1000 is accounted for five cities, 70% of them – Moscow, St. Petersburg and Novosibirsk. It is in these cities that research infrastructure (collective subscriptions to databases, creation of shared laboratories with expensive equipment, etc.) needs to be developed first. However, let’s not forget about strong research groups in other cities: the most cited Russian article, according to WoS, was published in the field of materials science by a group of authors from Ufa State Aviation Technical University.

Let’s move on now to the level of organizations. The share of the Russian Academy of Sciences in the total number of indexed publications by Russian scientists was 47.3%. Besides, physics and chemistry accounted for half of the articles. Scientists from Lomonosov Moscow State University “produced” 11.3% of articles, St. Petersburg State University scientists – 3.4%, while Russian Academy of Medical Sciences – 2%. (Here and in the following paragraph, we refer to data from Web of Knowledge, Essential Science Indicators for the period from January 1, 2002 – February 29, 2012, Citation Rankings by Institutions.)

Analysis by organizations shows that in the two leading areas for Russia – Physics and Chemistry – the Russian Academy of Sciences (RAS) is second in the world rankings by number of articles indexed by WoS. For comparison, the Chinese Academy of Sciences is ranked 1st, while the Max Planck Society (an analog to the Academy of Sciences in Germany) is ranked 3rd. It is true that by citation index, RAS lags behind the Max Planck Society by almost 3 times in Physics and almost 6 times in Chemistry. Lomonosov Moscow State University takes top position: it ranks 13th in Physics, immediately after Massachusetts Institute of Technology and the University of California, Berkeley, and 10th in chemistry. The dominance of Russian organizations is particularly evident in the area of Mathematics: RAS is ranked first followed by Lomonosov Moscow State University, and only then – the Chinese Academy of Sciences. The position of RAS is high in Materials Science (2nd rank), Molecular Biology and Genetics (3rd rank), Space Science (7th rank) and Engineering (4th rank), but a collection of academic institutions of this profile lags behind one leading technical university in China – Tsinghua University). In the social sciences (engaged in by institutions of two departments – social sciences, global issues, and international relations), RAS ranks only 147th in the world.

So, where exactly do highly cited scientists work? The discussion within the dichotomy “higher education system – RAS” has been ongoing since the fall of 2011. [2]. However, we are rather interested in a point analysis on individual organizations and not on consolidated figures.

As of May 24, 2012, the Expert Corps list contained 3,946 authors with a total citation of more than 1000. They work in a total of 401 organizations, but only 31 of these organizations have more than 30 such authors. Why did we choose 30 as the conditional boundary? To simplify the comparisons – this is approximately, on an average, the number of scientists in the best (in terms of academic performance) departments of U.S. and UK universities.

Here is a list of ten scientific organizations in Russia with the largest number of highly cited scientists (see Table 4).

The “faces” given in Table 4 are known to all. There are no surprises here. The more surprising is the “length” of the list of national research universities or institutes of RAS, where only 1 to 2 of such scientists are working or where there are no such scientists whatsoever. Obviously, development of scientific research, which could give a major publication effect in the medium term, requires a significant concentration of resources in key universities and institutions.

Indicators of Russia’s publication activity in international scientific journals are determined by just a few disciplines (Physics, Chemistry, Earth Science, Space Science, and some areas of Biology), and within them – by not that long list of universities and institutes, where scientists with high total citation and number of published articles are concentrated.

What is going on inside these organizations?

What motivates scientists to publish in international journals?

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Preparing an article for publication begins with a presentation and discussion of the results at scientific seminars and conferences. Then changes recommended by reviewers are made in it, and the manuscript is processed in accordance with the requirements of a particular journal. For international publications, this entire cycle takes from one to two-three years and requires substantial investments – the researcher’s time, effort, and money.

What is the return on these investments? First, reputational benefits. Here, one can make an analogy with opera singers – they typically acquire popularity in Russia after winning success abroad. Secondly, removal or reduction of “entrance” barriers to certain types of activities: obtaining positions in foreign scientific organizations, invitation to international projects, increase in the likelihood of receiving grants, etc. We can also include doctoral dissertations defense, which the Higher Attestation Commission recently started accepting as publications and articles published in journals included in WoS and Scopus, in this list. Thirdly, financial benefits: in the last year or two, a number of leading universities (St. Petersburg State University, the National Research University – Higher School of Economics, etc.) introduced an incentive system for its employees for the results of publication activity, clearly highlighting the priority of articles in international journals.

Explicitly or implicitly comparing the costs and benefits gives birth to an intention to publish a work in an international journal. The issue of barriers and motivation is deliberately put wide. Usually, the presence of significant scientific result is named as a key requirement for such publications (and, consequently, as a barrier to Russian scientists). This issue is largely related to the resource support to scientific activity, which is beyond the scope of this article. Then there is the question of the level of foreign language required to write a text of acceptable quality. However, it is more of a technical nature and is secondary to the issue of knowledge of the language to the extent necessary for regular acquaintance of a scientist with the state of his area of science in the world. Non-awareness of recent publications and the inability to position a research in the general context of issues discussed are often the reasons why articles are rejected by journals [3].

What can be done to increase the number of international publications?

Is it even necessary to set the task of increasing the number of international publications by Russian scientists? Each new article will not only work on Russia’s reputation as a major player in the global research market, but also will enhance the quality of research in the country, and ideally – the quality of education in the transmission of knowledge from the author (scientist) to his students and post-graduate students.

What can be done in this direction?

First. Increase the return on investments in preparation of publications.

• This can be all kinds of reputational benefits (for example, allowing Higher Attestation Commission to award academic titles directly, without the mediation of universities and scientific institutions, through expert review of the list of works, subject to a compulsory – for such a method of gaining title – presence of international publications of a certain level). It would be worthwhile to pay much more attention than it is now to the international reputation of candidates for RAS membership, although any formalization of requirements is hardly appropriate.
• Lowering the “entrance” barriers in terms of grants (for example, establishment of special grant programs RFBR (the Russian Foundation for Basic Research) and RFH (the Russian Foundation for Humanities) for authors of highly cited publications) could increase the return on investments.
• Financial benefits should also not be forgotten. Currently, only a few scientific institutions and universities provide awards for international publications. The size of the awards also varies. Such differences between organizations are normal and are part of a competition to attract highly skilled employees. However, given that most of the organizations where scientists with more than 1,000 citations work do not pay extra for these achievements, it would be appropriate to consider introducing a single additional payment for all employees of state research and educational institutions for the achievement of specific results in international publication activity. These payments could be set for up to three years, and the payment mechanism could be similar to the mechanism of additional payment for having Ph.D. and D.Sc. academic degrees. Along with this, financial incentives could include additional funding of universities and institutes of RAS based on achievement of certain publication activity indicators per employee (similar to the Research Assessment Exercise in the UK). Additional funding should be earmarked for the support of research in specific areas for those who have attained international results. It is unlikely that technical implementation of such a funding program will be harder than assessments of the implementation of development programs of scientific research or federal universities.

Second. Reduction of the costs of preparing publications.

This task can be achieved: at the institutional level – by providing support in the editing of articles’ translations ; and on the level of the Ministry of Education and Science of the Russian Federation – through implementation of a state program of subscriptions of all universities and institutes of RAS to professional publications databases.

Third. All of the above measures will work if there are scientists who can get significant scientific results.

As we have seen, there are such scientists, but the occurring generational change requires urgent support – creation of international post-graduate programs (possibly inter-organizational, as was done in some countries), launching of special grants for young scientists who wish to do an internship after their post-graduate studies in the best Russian and foreign research centers, as well as a grant program for post-graduate studies in foreign universities, especially in areas where Russian science most prominently lags behind (economics and business, social sciences, etc.).

1. As it appears from the explanations on the Expert Corps website, the “Who is Who” lists include professionals whose work has been cited at least 1,000 times since 1986, as well as those whose total citations in the last seven years are more than 100 according to the WoS database (scientists working outside Russia are included in the list if they stated Russia as their place of work during publication of articles within the past seven years). These are the people we call highly cited scientists in this article.

2. Gelfand M., D. Livanov, Return Effectiveness to Science // Expert. No. 38. September 26, 2011- October 02, 2011. P. 58-61; Kuleshov A. The case of the so-called lies // Troitsky version, October 25, 2011. P. 6–7; Lysenko E. Universities, RAN, and others. Biology Series // Troitsky version, 28.02.2012. C. 12.

3. “He who thinks clearly, communicates clearly” // Troitsky version, May 8, 2012. P. 7–8.