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Igor Delanoë

Ph.D. in History, Research affiliate at the Ukrainian Research Institute (Harvard University) and the Center for International and European Studies, Kadir Has University, Istanbul, Deputy Director, Analytical Center Observo, French-Russian Chamber of Commerce

The ongoing Ukrainian crisis and Russia's annexation of Crimea have demonstrated that the use of hard power, no matter how gradual it could be, remains an option in the Black Sea region. Moscow's takeover of Crimea has overthrown the Black Sea security balance and has shed a new light on the growing militarization that characterized the area. The increasing naval activity of the stakeholders in the Black Sea basin has furthermore underlined the maritime dimension of the regional security. Yet, the military capabilities of Black Sea countries remain highly disparate, while recent developments have put an emphasis on NATO's and Washington's role in offsetting Russian military potential on the Black Sea stage. After having tackled Black Sea countries' defense expenditures, this paper analyzes the regional military balance in assessing and comparing the respective capabilities of the neighboring states.

In focus: NATO members: Turkey, Romania, Bulgaria, Greece; 'Shared Neighborhood' Countries:Moldova, Ukraine, Armenia, Georgia; Russia; and Other Actors in the Region^ USA, Canada, United Kingdom, Azerbaijan.

Project page: http://russiancouncil.ru/en/blackseamilitary

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