... Council and «Valdai» discussion forum.
The author shares his view on key trends in Russia-NATO and Russia-EU relations after the NATO Summit in Warsaw and new EU Global Strategy being announced. The paper evaluates the causes of crisis in the relations as ... ... Russian International Affairs Council, Head of "Contemporary State" program at Valdai Discussion Club.
Russia and the West: the New Normal
, 790 Kb
... Atlantic, and across the Middle East—the risks of miscalculation or accident and escalation are unacceptably high. Unless Western and Russian leaders take immediate steps to improve transparency and enhance predictability, they may inadvertently risk ... ... nine urgent and practical recommendations to ensure that we avoid the worst kind of catastrophe: a nuclear incident involving NATO and Russian forces. The measures are focused on preventing accidents, enhancing predictability, and building confidence. ...
... «Hypocrisy vs Democracy: Insincerity Destroying the Global Order after the Cold War». About forty experts, journalists and diplomats from Russia, the USA, Bulgaria, Greece, the UK, and Turkey took part in the conference.
The participants discussed the Western and Russian approach to the history of NATO expansion, the promotion of democracy as a geopolitical tool, «Color Revolutions» and «Arab Spring», Ukrainian crisis narrative clash, diplomacy and public policy interaction, the role of hacking in discovering secret agendas,...
... relations with Russia meant that Moscow
could
get the best terms possible for collaborating with the triumphalist West. The West was more than generous in offering
Ru
ssia a “special arrangement” with the European Union and a
se
at at the NATO-Russian Council. Moscow had to play by the Western rules, because these rules were supposed to be clearly
bet
ter for the new, democratic Russia than any other alternative, if
such
an alternative ever existed in the 1990s.
H
owever, this was definitely not how they understood “equality” ...
... Putin and Erdogan, they can look for other alternatives.
What message does this meeting send to the West?
I think that both leaders would like to make a case that the West is not the only game in town, that they have other options, and that if the West shuts its door in front of Putin and Erdogan, they can look for other alternatives.
Do you think Russia can dislodge Turkey as a NATO member?
In Russia there are no allusions about Turkey’s membership in NATO. I don’t think anyone here in Moscow believes that Turkey might leave NATO. But at the same time, everybody knows that Turkey is a very special NATO member. For ...
... held on April 20. Is this a sign of the long-awaited warming of relations? And how can a stable course be established in Russia-NATO relations today?
Obviously, it’s a good sign that Russia has finally been invited, and that the revival of the NATO – Russia Council came from the Western side. I think it was foolish for the meetings to have been suspended just when they were needed at the moment of crisis. It would have been a forum that could have allowed some of the potential dangers to be avoided. However, everybody is saying ...
... how they may be transcended.
In its analysis of the experts’ deliberations, the ELN found fundamentally different interpretations, on both sides, to critical questions relating to the evolution of the European security order; the expansion of NATO; past military interventions; the right to self-determination; and the right to succession.
The nature of the problem:
The dominant western media narrative on the crisis in Russia-West relations is that, through its annexation of Crimea and intervention in eastern Ukraine, Russia has behaved aggressively, has broken international law, and the core policy challenge for the West is ...
... business unlikely to resume “as usual” for a long, long time. We cannot even be sure that the peak of the crisis has been reached. The summer of 2016 might be another challenging time for the crippled relationship between Russia and the West. The NATO Summit meeting in Warsaw is likely to lead to some decisions that could cause uproar in the Kremlin. If, by that time, the European Union does not make any positive changes in the sanctions regime (or at least make clear its intention to), the political ...
... important to have working contacts among the military. These need to be calibrated carefully. Russia must not be able to use any conversations, military or otherwise, to legitimise its actions in Ukraine – but it should know for certain that while the West is preparing to defend the NATO territory, it is not preparing to attack Russia’s territory.
On the diplomatic front, the West should be very clear on its vision as concerns implementation of the Minsk agreement: only full implementation would qualify as a condition for removal ...
... slogan, "How we brought Europe to war one more time while talking about strengthening our security,” Tsvetkov wrote in his column. In contrast, Tsygankov warns against overestimating the possibility of the global war, involving Russia and the West. “Alarmist views and arguments are misplaced because they underestimate the dangers of the Cold War and overestimate those of today’s world,” he wrote in a column for Russia Direct. One of the reasons of why the Russia-NATO conflict is unlikely is the common sense and the rationality of the world’s leaders, with both the U.S. and Russia having important interests to prevent regional conflicts from escalating or becoming trans-regional. “Although its relative ...