Ernesto Gallo and Giovanni Biava Column
The recent EU elections have been rather undecided, uninteresting, and divisive over national issues
ShortReflections on a Far Right win, European dream team, and a two-speed Europe
ShortRussia, China, the Emerging Powers are all welcome to help stabilise a crucial region for world trade, resources, and security
ShortThe world economy has shifted East and its most important body has doubtless become the G20
ShortMr Macron has won the support of the wealthier and better educated, but has let down the youth and poor
ShortDonald Trump is now the 45th President of the USA. If we leave aside gossip and personalisations, and try to focus on the forces that are supporting his presidency, what can we say about Trump Administration’s real programme? In particular, what will change in US foreign affairs?
ShortOn 12 September 2016 Syria declared a week-long ceasefire. Will it be the beginning of the end of more than five years of civil war? Or will this remain just a wishful thinking? Middle Eastern affairs are as usual tangled beyond imagination, like a true labyrinth. Let us consider three possible scenarios, from the most optimistic to a highly pessimistic one.
ShortAfter Brexit the EU is once again in the eye of the storm. That said, we should not forget that the European Union is just an organisation and as such it has and probably will always have strengths and weaknesses. What is far more worrying is the general loss of momentum of the idea and process of European integration, which once was seen as a noble project but in the last ten-fifteen years seems…
ShortFew were really expecting it. On the long-awaited ‘Referendum Day’ (Thursday 23 June) financial markets were upbeat and soon after polling stations closed, Mr Farage, Britain’s ‘Leave Campaign’ leader, seemed to concede, ‘It looks like Remain will edge it’. But then Brexit has been. Financial markets have collapsed, while Europe and especially Britain have plunged into uncertainty…
ShortSince the early 1990s both the USA and China have specialised in building infrastructure; ‘digital’ infrastructure in the US case, mainly ‘physical’ in China’s. Infrastructures are not only a technical and economic reality; they also have a political meaning, which is often overlooked. What do we know about it?
ShortThe ‘New Economic Silk Road’ was launched by China’s President, Xi Jinping, in September 2013 in Kazakhstan’s capital, Astana. A few months later Astana became one of the three capital cities of the Eurasian Economic Union, which started with Belarus, Kazakhstan, and Russia, and later enlarged to Kyrgyzstan and Armenia. Is a new ‘Great Game’ under way? Who will control Eurasia? More…
ShortIt is difficult to remember a more heated race to the White House on both sides, Republican and Democratic. While Hillary Clinton has been embarrassingly defeated by Bernie Sanders in 13 states, Donald Trump has so far gained 739 delegates, a significant lead over Ted Cruz (465) and John Kasich (143). Important candidates such as Jeb Bush and Marco Rubio, who were favoured by the establishment…
ShortDuring the Cold War, NATO’s role was rather clear. Despite tensions, NATO had a well-defined agenda, that of containing and at times opposing the Soviet Union and its Warsaw Pact (formed in 1955). Since 1992, however, NATO’s purposes have become increasingly unclear. Its forces have been involved in highly questionable wars and its enlargement has been constant, pushing its boundaries east…
ShortThe Middle East is on the brink of a major Sunni-Shia conflict, and only Russia (and China) seems to have a clear and coherent political direction.
ShortAntalya’s G 20 (15-16 November) was supposed to show to the world the wonders of Erdoğan’s Turkey, but reality has been different. The events in Paris have pushed terrorism high on the agenda, and the instability of the world economy was of course the other key issue. In fact little in Antalya has been achieved. An agreement between the West and Russia in fighting terrorism has not yet been…
ShortRiyadh is now facing a choice. Either will the House of Saud co-operate with Russia against ISIS, accept a negotiated solution to Syria’s war, and enact democratising reforms at home or they will risk losing credibility abroad and ending up proposing some short-term cosmetic change at home. The latter strategy is doomed; it would work only in the very short term.
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In the general silence of the media, the EU and the USA are negotiating a key free trade agreement, the TTIP (Transatlantic Trade and Investment Partnership).
What is it exactly? That’s the main problem. We do not know much about it and, especially as EU citizens; we would like to know more. The EU often boasts about transparency, but here there seems to be little of it.
Not only will US voters in 2016 risk having to choose between two political dynasties – a Clinton VS a Bush. They will also likely see again many well-known decision-makers who have already worked with the Clintons and Bush over the last decades. Millions of US citizens, however, are highly disaffected with this state of affairs and might go for a jolly. In this sense, eccentric Donald Trump is…
ShortThe so-called Iran ‘nuclear deal’ has been greeted with relief and satisfaction, but who will benefit more from it? How will power relations in the Middle East (and Eurasia as a whole, given Iran’s central location) change?
ShortPoll conducted
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In your opinion, what are the US long-term goals for Russia?
U.S. wants to establish partnership relations with Russia on condition that it meets the U.S. requirements 33 (31%) U.S. wants to deter Russia’s military and political activity 30 (28%) U.S. wants to dissolve Russia 24 (22%) U.S. wants to establish alliance relations with Russia under the US conditions to rival China 21 (19%)