IRANIAN PRESIDENT ROUHANI, YOU ARE NOT MR. GORBACHEV!

Ah!  It´s a new world and we are moving towards civility, arms control and negotiated settlements!  Mah-velous!  Optimistic observers are even comparing elegantly dressed, English-speaking, Hassan Rouhani to Mikhail Gorbachev, the ¨Gucci comrade¨ as President Bush ´41 once described him.  However, our present advice to President Obama is to ignore the attire and seductive talk.  Rather view the Iranian overture like the Greek equestrian gift to ancient Troy.

Undeniably, Rouhani seems a less antagonistic leader than his predecessor, Ahmedinejad, whose denials of the holocaust and nuclear threats against Israel evoked profound nausea.  An Israeli official we know even joked that Ahmedinejad was good for Israel and secretly working for the Mossad, as he was so easily dismissed by Israel and the U.S.

But Mr. Rouhani is not Gorbachev. Inspired by his reform-minded inner circle, Mikhail Gorbachev came to embrace a genuine concept of ¨New Thinking.” Rather than uphold Leninist  class struggle and world revolution, he put the emphasis on true détente and ending support for terrorist regimes and organizations.         

          Conversely, Mr. Rouhani´s “new thinking” is questionable. Moreover, his past record suggests that Israel´s Prime Minister, Bibi Netanyahu, has accurately perceived the wool covering the wolf and also being pulled over our eyes.   In the past decade, Iran´s new president has been a smooth negotiator on the nuclear issues, known for bragging to his highest circle colleagues that he was able to outsmart Western leaders and obtain concessions.  All the hot air has naturally expanded the time bubble to pursue nuclear aims.  Why not!    Once the bomb has been attained, will Iran, like North Korea, worry unduly about sanctions?

          Recall too, that Gorbachev, in the late 1980´s was facing an economic abyss and negotiating from a position of weakness.  Reagan, in the power seat, was threatening a “Star Wars” missile shield for the U.S. that the Soviets could not match.  Thus, Gorbachev became seriously interested in reaching arms control breakthroughs on the INF in 1988 and SALT II in 1990. Today it is the U.S. facing a fiscal cliff and President Obama´s performance regarding Syria has unfortunately sowed an impression of weakness.     

If we do negotiate with Iran, we should insist on its complete dismantling of uranium enrichment.  First of all, his country is sitting on enormous oil reserves and really does not need nuclear energy for peaceful use.  After Japan´s “Chernyoble,” the Fukushima Daiichi disaster, the German´s decided to abolish all their nuclear stations and are doing fine without them.

Secondly, we should insist on Iran´s withdrawing its Revolutionary Guards now fighting in Syria on behalf of Dictator Assad.  Thirdly, we should ask Iran to start reigning in its terrorist operatives from the Western hemisphere. Besides its attempts to emulate North Korea´s WMD path, Iran supports terrorist organizations on two continents.  Most notable is Hezbollah, rooted in Lebanon but active in Syria and elsewhere in the Middle East.  

Hezbollah´s reach, is further, however.  In 1992, they bombed the Israeli Embassy in Buenos Aires, killing 29 people.  Two years later, they slaughtered 92 members of a Buenos Aires Jewish cultural center.  They are also engaged in drug trafficking and money laundering.  This June, Argentina´s special prosecutor reported that with Iran´s support, Hezbollah has been setting up intelligence structures and sending operatives not only to Argentina, but also Columbia, Ecuador, Chile, Uruguay and  Venezuela.  

Unknown to most Americans, the Middle East, in fact, is moving to Latin America. Venezuela alone hosts at least a hundred thousand Muslims from Syria and Lebanon.  Aregentina and Brazil each have a million.

Clearly, we cannot simply follow Reagan´s  “Trust but verify.”  Unlike former Soviet leader Gorbachev, Rouhani is not surrounded by radical reformers like Alexander Yakovlev urging cooperation with America. Nor is he even his country´s supreme leader. That honor goes to  Ayatollah Ali Khamenei.   Symbolic gestures are also important.  We note Rouhani’s televised inability to shake Obama´s extended hand.  Of whom was he afraid?

Help from Russia here is also suspect. Her ample cause to dislike an Iranian  bomb, is sadly tempered by her economic interests as  its supplier of nuclear power station equipment and military hardware.  She has also traditionally supported Hezbollah.

          Clearly, if we play ball with Iran, we would require a much stricter verification process than with the Soviets.  So let us walk softly but not forget the big stick.

This blog was inspired by the discussion of Leslie Gelb in The Daily Beast, published 9/24/2013.