JVLV: ENDEMIC RUSSO-POLISH ENMITY AND NEED FOR UNTAINTED RUSSOLOGY, By Jiri & Leni Friedman Valenta, 4/20/16

                               "Unfraid, Bi-partisan, Uphold U.S. and Freedom"

 In her April 13, 2016  article in Politico, Anne Applebaum’s title asks, “How Much Trouble is Russia Causing in Europe?”  She concludes, “a lot,” and adds, “Until this week’s Dutch Referendum, we hadn’t seen a good example of how Russian influence actually works in a Western European election. “

But did she really prove the referendum is a good example of that?   We think not and neither does a Dutch geopolitical analyst we consulted who really knows  her subject.

First, our friend took issue with Applebaum that the treaty was only about trade and cooperation like others the EU has with Chile and Jordan.  “Probably,” she said, “like most Dutch voters, she [Applebaum] hasn’t read it…. there were also passages not related to trade, like military cooperation.” Yet she does agree that the referendum was not about the Ukraine’s association treaty with the EU, but used by  groups seeking to undermine the EU and national leaders.”

The problem to the analyst is that, “If the treaty was not really about Ukraine, than why were Dutch voters influenced (against the treaty) by Russian disinformation. Isn’t that a contradiction?

Applebaum tells us the referendum was the result of “a populist, hoax-loving website” that gathered more than 300,000 signatures on a petition because populist, anti-establishment groups were “looking for an issue, any issue” to attack the government, but she doesn’t really prove her claim that the Russians influenced those groups.  In the Dutch analyst’s words:  “I am sure that there is Russian propaganda to create dissent in Europe. Everyone knows that media like Russia Today and Sputnik are part of the propaganda machinery. Support to extremist political groups has been looked into for quite some time. But besides the French Front National, receiving a loan from a Russian bank there is until now no proof.”[Italics added].

This is a serious issue!  As Applebaum writes, the results of the referendum are not binding.  They are “consultative.”  But one can see a danger here.  Consultation regarding the referendum should not be based on non-existent evidence of Russian involvement. 

If Ms. Applebaum likely  checks facts with her husband, a former defense minister of Poland turned  former foreign minister,   I am sure she will find  that on April 13 something much more significance than the Dutch referendum, happened .   Two Russian fighter planes, likely deployed in Kaliningrad, engaged in dangerous overflights of one of our U. S. Navy frigates.  Moreover this occurred at precisely the time when U.S. vessel was engaged in tactical activities with a Polish helicopter then departing from the frigate.

Checking the story, we found the U.S.-Polish exercise was well advertised.  Let’s take a safe guess what was on Vladimir Putin’s mind.  Like other Russian rulers, tsars, commissars and Soviet leaders, he is obsessed with the Polish security threat to Russia and dislikes Polish –US military ties.  The presence of the Polish helicopter was no accident. The US ship had just departed a Polish port.  This was clearly a Kremlin well prepared provocation motivated by Putin’s resentment of U.S. –NATO-Polish military cooperation in what used to be Russia’s lake, the Baltic Sea.

To Poland, Russia has been for the last two centuries one of the key menaces to her security.  This is not surprising considering three partitions of Poland by Russia and Germany. The last was the infamous one by Stalin and Hitler in 1939. Yet to Russians since the late 16^th and early 17^th centuries, particularly during the “smutna” [Time of Troubles], Poles were traditionally viewed as the invaders.  There were even two pretenders to the Russian thrones and Polish-Lithuanian leaders supported  their short rules through deployment of Polish troops and Ukrainian Cossacks in conquered Moscow.  Russian literature and music provides many examples of Russian’s perception of Poles, the menacing Slavic and Catholic enemy, at Russia’s western periphery.

 In our judgment, the incidence over the frigate and the launching of the Polish helicopter was the result of the persistent, deeply rooted attitudes Putin and his advisers share about the Poles.

Our point here is that there can be two historical truths existing at the same time about endemic conflicts of nations.  This is not only true of Poles and Russians, but also of the Israelis and Arabs. Applebaum is a remarkable, Pulitzer Prize-winning historian of Russo and East European relations.  However, as much as we respect her, we conclude that authors living within a country espousing one of those views must handle the evidence about sensitive issues like Russia’s manipulating of European politics with great caution.  Conclusions should not be reached on flimsy evidence. 

Dr. Jiri Valenta is President of the Institute of Post-Communist Studies and Terrorism.  A member of the U.S. Council on Foreign Relations since 1984, he and Leni are co-authors of “Divining Putin’s Intentions; Why we must Lose “Strategic Patience”’ in the Aspen Review.”  Also Jiri’s comprehensive interview about Ukraine security was just published by the World Affairs Journal. For further publications see their website, jvlv.net.