JVLV: U.S.-IRAN NUKE DEAL: FROM FRAMEWORK TO VIABLE AGREEMENT, A NATO FOR THE MIDDLE EAST? By Leni & Jiri Valenta, 4/4/15

Undeniably, Secretary John Kerry has labored long and hard on the U.S.-Iran deal, and there are some positives as Leslie Gelb  has asserted.  As for the complaints of the Republicans, is important to remember, there is no agreement yet.  In spite of our President´s optimistic comments and desperate attempts to forge a foreign policy legacy, there is only a framework. Moreover, as Iran’s glee and Bibi Netanyahu’s gravity suggest, it still needs considerable work.

There are already suggestions already that the interpretation of the framework is different in Teheran and Washington as to whether the sanctions will be lifted immediately or phased in depending on compliance.  That is not surprising.  As these writers have learned, Iran’s officialdom and censorship tends to pick and choose their facts. A few months ago we were asked for an interview by the Teheran Times and that was our experience.  

The next three months will be marked by political struggle with the US. Congress,    the last  bulwark against disaster.  The timing of the indictment of Senator Bob Menendez (D) N.J., on corruption charges, the man who led the democratic Congressional opposition to the agreement, indicates it will be rough. So does the growing alienation of American Jewish voters with jitters over Israel.  Congressional democrats must bear in mind that they represent not their party or president but the American people.

Best to also remember that while the Iranian Foreign Minister, Java Zarf, is seriously interested in a deal, he is not the final decision-maker either.  That´s the Ayatollah, whose signature must be affixed along with those of the influential leaders of the revolutionary guards. Moreover, we must not only clarify each point of any final agreement, but fit the entirety, with Kissinger-like realpolitik, to a broader Middle East strategy that considers our Arab allies.

Improving the Framework       

1. The sanctions must be lifted gradually and in concert with compliance. As Iran is a terrorist state, we should also consider linking  its international behavior to the sanctions.

 2.  Iran does not need ICBM’s.  Ironclad must be that their development must be stopped and any now existing must be destroyed. 

3.  The agreement must allow for snap inspections without any warning by U.S. inspectors, not just  Security Council reps.

4.  The role of Russia as the safe-keeper of Iran’s nuclear material must be clarified, particularly as a country which has been selling nuclear reactors to Iran. We worry that Obama, despite the wishes of Republicans and Democrats,  may be denying arms to the Ukraine because of Russian influence with regard to Iran deal-making.  As we already proposed last April in the Kyiv Post, the Ukrainians need to be armed to preserve their sovereignty, and despite all Khrushchev-Ian bluff and nuclear blackmail, Russia will not start a nuclear war. However, we should not give up on Russia since we share common interests in fighting terrorism. 

5.  The three American prisoners must be released.

6.  We must insist that all hostile canards from either side, but particularly the “death to Israel and America”  rhetoric, disappear from the lips of Iran’s leaders.  The agreement should not otherwise be signed.

Towards a New U.S. Middle East Strategy

      As to a broader Middle East strategy, we have bridges to repair with our Sunni Arab allies, Egypt, the Saudis, Jordan, and the Gulf States, who think we are knuckling to Iran.   We know that some  have been invited by our president to Camp David in April. We also know that a nuclear Iran will lead to a nuclear race in the whole region.

      If we conclude a better agreement with Iran in June, we have to also consider preventing the arms race by offering a nuclear umbrella to our Middle East allies. The forthcoming meeting should not only solicit ideas for the Iran agreement, but should also aim at the creation of a new defense alliance in the Middle East against both Sunni and Shiite Islamic terrorists.  It should have the second function of containing expansionist Iran. Membership should be open to both Shiite and Sunni countries and include the participation of Israel and Kurdistan as associate members.  Israel can participate in economic assistance and intelligence.  If the Palestinian authorities and the Arab league recognize Israel’s right to exist, Israel will eventually commit to a two–state solution.

       We have to vigorously support Saudi Arabia in South Yemen and reverse the Shiite Houthis. The strategically important Port of Eden must again be in friendly hands as the guardian to the Red Se-a

In short, we must not allow Iran to become another North Korea.  It is not only Obama´s legacy and Kerry’s Nobel Prize that is at stake, or even the survival of Israel.  Also  at stake  are the vital interests of, our Middle East allies, and perhaps even the survival of America itself.

Jvlv.net   @JiriLeniValenta