I think that the US-Iran negotiations will be resumed before too long
Ph.D. in History, Expert of the Valdai Discussion Club
Short version
The United States has entered a period of great economic, political and even social uncertainties. This period contains opportunities for America, but also many risks and dangers along the way. Given the power of the United States and its position within the international system, these risks and dangers spill over to the outside world and generate instabilities of various kinds.
The Islamic Republic has demonstrated a lot of resilience confronting the growing pressure from Israel and the United States. It now has to operate in a much more challenging regional environment than it was the case some two years ago. However, Iran has demonstrated that it has the capacity inflict significant damage upon its adversaries, which might turn out to be the most efficient deterrence instrument it has at its disposal.
Full version
Interview for the Iran Student Correspondents Association.
Israel’s history shows that it should not be trusted at all and that there is a possibility of a ceasefire violation by them. The experience of Lebanon and Gaza also shows the same. What is your opinion in this regard?
Some of the recent statements made by the Israeli leadership give reasons to believe that the ultimate goal of Israel is not limited to inflicting the maximum damage upon the Iranian nuclear and ballistic programs or even to changing the pattern of the Iranian “regional behavior”. If the real goal is the “regime change” or rater the deconstruction of the Iranian statehood, then Israel will not stop and any ceasefire with the Islamic Republic will be temporary at best. If Israel eventually tilts to a more moderate position, then a more lasting peace is possible.
Trump has never been a balanced person, but the contradictions in his positions have been more than ever in the past few days. What do you think such a president will bring to the future of America?
The United States has entered a period of great economic, political and even social uncertainties. This period contains opportunities for America, but also many risks and dangers along the way. Given the power of the United States and its position within the international system, these risks and dangers spill over to the outside world and generate instabilities of various kinds.
In your opinion, the Islamic Republic of Iran was able to create the necessary deterrence for itself, and in your opinion, what were the regional effects of this war?
The Islamic Republic has demonstrated a lot of resilience confronting the growing pressure from Israel and the United States. It now has to operate in a much more challenging regional environment than it was the case some two years ago. However, Iran has demonstrated that it has the capacity inflict significant damage upon its adversaries, which might turn out to be the most efficient deterrence instrument it has at its disposal.
It does not seem that the Islamic Republic of Iran is willing to resume negotiations, at least in the short term. In your opinion, after recent events, especially Iran’s attack on the US air base in Qatar, will the US be willing to make more concessions to Iran?
Donald Trump badly needs a foreign policy victory and he does not like to get involved into long and costly military operations. I think that the US – Iran negotiations will be resumed before too long, and the White House will not use Iran’s attack on the US air base in Qatar as a pretext to escalate the conflict. It will be up to Tehran to decide, at what stage and with what preconditions these negotiations could continue.
Source: ISCA