Disbandment of the PKK: What Awaits the Region?

The disbandment of the Kurdistan Workers' Party (PKK) on May 12 raised questions about Turkey's military position in the Iraqi Kurdistan Region going forward. Analysts questioned if PKK members in Iraq's mountainous north will follow their central leadership's decision to disband the group. The PKK's demobilization in Iraq and the potential changes in Ankara, Baghdad, and Erbil relations as a result of this new reality remain uncertain.

It is quite uncertain how the disbandment of the PKK would be implemented in Iraq. Any future course is still filled with obstacles. Whether or not all PKK groups will follow the central leadership's decision will be a major factor in success. Given that combatants in Iraq have allegedly formed their own local alliances, some observers predict that breakaway groups may form. Baghdad has already started the process of establishing a joint security and military working cell with Turkey in consultation with the PKK in an effort to disarm the latter's fighters in the Iraqi Kurdistan region, according to media news based in Erbil. Turkish military may leave northern Iraq if the abandonment process is successful, which may greatly improve relations between Iraq and Turkey and strengthen Iraqi sovereignty. If the process lags or fails, however, it may prolong Turkish military operations in Iraqi territory and may lead to new security issues as fighters continue operations under different banners or look for other affiliations.

The disbandment of the Kurdistan Workers' Party (PKK) on May 12 raised questions about Turkey's military position in the Iraqi Kurdistan Region going forward. Analysts questioned if PKK members in Iraq's mountainous north will follow their central leadership's decision to disband the group. The PKK's demobilization in Iraq and the potential changes in Ankara, Baghdad, and Erbil relations as a result of this new reality remain uncertain.

PKK Disbandment: Paths to Peace

Nechirvan Barzani, president of the Iraqi Kurdistan Region, hailed the PKK disbandment following its May 12 declaration, saying it establishes “a pivotal step that opens a new chapter in the region.” Iraq's Ministry of Foreign Affairs stated that “this announcement offers a real opportunity to further advance peace efforts and end the long-lasting conflicts that have cast a shadow over the peoples of the region for decades.” Additionally, the announcement is being welcomed by the Iraqi government. Ankara, Baghdad, and KRG officials are currently holding negotiations to “disarm the party,” according to Iraqi Foreign Minister Fuad Hussein in an interview. The tone of some Iraqi media outlets, however, was less hopeful, stating that PKK components in Iraq "may not lay down their arms" and that the militant organization had "an understanding" with armed Shiite groups that might make the disarmament process more challenging. Mukhtar al-Moussawi, a member of the Foreign Relations Committee of the Iraqi parliament, informed Iraqi media that “the Kurdistan Workers' Party (PKK) controls an entire area on Mount Sinjar and may not lay down its weapons unless [imprisoned PKK founder Abdullah] Ocalan is released,” implying that there are major challenges to implementation.

Turkey's Expansionism Threatens Iraq

Amid reports that Ankara has halted military operations against the PKK, Iraqi Kurdish local media distributed videos of allegedly ongoing Turkish attacks in Dohuk province. In the meantime, Turkey's selection of a special presidential envoy to Iraq was sharply criticized by Iraqi MP Zahra Al-Bajari of the Sadiqoon faction, which is affiliated with Asa'ib Ahl Al-Haq. Al-Bajari declared that the action is “a continuation of Turkish expansionist policies that target Iraq's unity and security” and called it a “blatant interference in national sovereignty.” Additionally, Al-Bajari stated that “the government's silence encourages further violations,” urging the Iraqi Prime Minister and Parliament to show a "clear and firm" stance against “repeated Turkish violations.”

What Comes Once the PKK Disbands?

Following a year-long discussion between the Turkish government and the PKK's imprisoned leader, who in February said that armed conflict is a thing of the past, the group decided to disband itself. The PKK's 12^th Congress “decided to dissolve itself and end the armed conflict with Turkey,” according to a number of pro-PKK sites on May 12, following Ocalan's speech, stating that “Turkish-Kurdish relations need to be reshaped” moving ahead. According to the statement, Kurdish political parties will “assume their responsibilities to develop Kurdish democracy and ensure the formation of a democratic Kurdish nation” after the PKK transfers a large portion of its tasks to them. Subsequent statements, however, have raised some questions about whether these directions apply to the Kurdish-led Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF), which hold a large portion of northeastern Syria, as well as PKK branches in Iraq. In an interview in February, SDF leader Mazloum Abdi stated that Ocalan's call for disarmament was "not related to us in Syria." This stance has raised worries that the PKK in Iraq may take a similar course.

Sinjar vs Qandil: New Realities

For many years, the PKK's primary locations in the Iraqi Kurdistan region have been the Qandil Mountains and, more recently, the Sinjar territory. According to Iraqi security sources, between 2,000 and 2,500 PKK fighters are reportedly spread out throughout these regions and near the border between Iraq and Turkey. Since 2018, Ankara has capitalized on the pursuit of the PKK, which it views as a terrorist organization, as justification for the construction of hundreds of military facilities and the stationing of thousands of troops in the Iraqi Kurdistan region. Ankara and Baghdad have long been at odds over this dynamic, with Iraq often alleging breaches of its sovereignty. In May 2024, Iraq's National Security Council declared the PKK "banned" in the country, but refrained from using the terrorist designation, as a significant concession to Ankara during larger talks on a significant new logistical project and commerce.

Challenges and Prospects of Disbandment

It is quite uncertain how the disbandment of the PKK would be implemented in Iraq. Any future course is still filled with obstacles. Whether or not all PKK groups will follow the central leadership's decision will be a major factor in success. Given that combatants in Iraq have allegedly formed their own local alliances, some observers predict that breakaway groups may form. Baghdad has already started the process of establishing a joint security and military working cell with Turkey in consultation with the PKK in an effort to disarm the latter's fighters in the Iraqi Kurdistan region, according to media news based in Erbil. Turkish military may leave northern Iraq if the abandonment process is successful, which may greatly improve relations between Iraq and Turkey and strengthen Iraqi sovereignty. If the process lags or fails, however, it may prolong Turkish military operations in Iraqi territory and may lead to new security issues as fighters continue operations under different banners or look for other affiliations.