Iran Prevails: Initial Assessments

Trump ultimately found a way out of the situation he had created for himself by embarking on the reckless venture of war against Iran. The threat of annihilating an entire civilization appears to have served as a cover for his withdrawal from the battlefield.

Indirect negotiations between Tehran and Washington, conducted in recent months through intermediaries—primarily Pakistan, and, behind it, China—have led to a ceasefire agreement. Trump may claim as he wishes that the Iranians were intimidated by his threats, but in reality, a ceasefire under conditions where the Strait of Hormuz remains under Iranian control suggests that Tehran has not backed down, unlike Washington.

It is difficult to expect the arrival of the “golden age” promised by Trump to emerge from the upcoming negotiations, but the preliminary results from the just-concluded war can already be drawn.

1. Iran has strengthened its position as a regional power—alongside Israel.

2. U.S. security guarantees are a bluff. This is a factor that all of Washington’s allies and partners should take into account.

3. Sanctioned Iran, with its immense financial and economic difficulties, has effectively defeated a global superpower, while Iran’s immensely wealthy southern neighbors have been reduced to “whipping boys.”

4. Iran will remain an Islamic republic, but the true center of power has already moved toward the IRGC. Tehran’s policy will be tough, yet highly rational.

5. Israel’s inability, even with the most active U.S. participation, to “resolve the Iranian problem” may, in the longer term, lead to the establishment of regional equilibrium between the two leading military powers in the region: Israel and Iran.

Looking ahead, Moscow gains the opportunity to develop closer ties with Tehran, which has survived a severe ordeal and significantly elevated its international standing. Russia, China, Iran, as well as Belarus and North Korea, are effectively forming the core of a new security system in Eurasia. Iran has just halted a U.S. geopolitical counter-offensive in the south of the continent. Russia’s achievement of its objectives in the Ukrainian conflict would stop a similar attempt in the west. In the east, China is strengthening its military power in anticipation of a possible U.S. confrontation while simultaneously intensifying its diplomatic efforts. It is through such actions—not political declarations—that a truly multipolar world is being shaped.

Trump ultimately found a way out of the situation he had created for himself by embarking on the reckless venture of war against Iran. The threat of annihilating an entire civilization appears to have served as a cover for his withdrawal from the battlefield.

Indirect negotiations between Tehran and Washington, conducted in recent months through intermediaries—primarily Pakistan, and, behind it, China—have led to a ceasefire agreement. Trump may claim as he wishes that the Iranians were intimidated by his threats, but in reality, a ceasefire under conditions where the Strait of Hormuz remains under Iranian control suggests that Tehran has not backed down, unlike Washington.

It is difficult to expect the arrival of the “golden age” promised by Trump to emerge from the upcoming negotiations, but the preliminary results from the just-concluded war can already be drawn.

1. Iran has withstood a threat that had loomed over it for several decades—joint aggression by US and Israel. Washington and Tel Aviv, for their part, proved incapable of imposing their will on Iran by force. As a result, Iran has strengthened its position as a regional power—alongside Israel.

2. The Arab states of the Gulf, by contrast, have revealed not only their vulnerability in the context of a war between the U.S./Israel and Iran, but also their helplessness in defending their own interests. The presence of U.S. military bases on their territory did not guarantee their security; instead, it turned them into magnets for Iranian strikes. Conclusion: U.S. security guarantees are a bluff. This is a factor that all of Washington’s allies and partners should take into account.

3. In the current global era of warfare, the significance of military force outweighs that of financial, economic, and other non-military factors. As in Pushkin’s famous verse: “All mine, said gold / All mine, said steel / All I buy, said gold / All I take, said steel.” Sanctioned Iran, with its immense financial and economic difficulties, has effectively defeated a global superpower, while Iran’s immensely wealthy southern neighbors have been reduced to “whipping boys.”

4. Iran has held firm, but it has also changed. During the war, the regime change, long anticipated by experts, has taken place. Real power has shifted from the ayatollahs to the security apparatus. The country is now led not by a new Supreme Leader or president, but by the upper echelon of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC). As a result, Iran will remain an Islamic republic, but the true center of power has already moved toward the IRGC. Tehran’s policy will be tough, yet highly rational.

5. The cessation of Israeli military operations against Iran and Lebanon’s Hezbollah signifies Netanyahu’s forced submission to Trump’s will. Relations between Washington and Tel Aviv have returned to normal. Conclusion: Israel’s inability, even with the most active U.S. participation, to “resolve the Iranian problem” may, in the longer term, lead to the establishment of regional equilibrium between the two leading military powers in the region: Israel and Iran.

Now to leave a few concluding remarks on Russia: Moscow has managed to maintain its principled stance (calling aggression by its name, expressing solidarity with Iran, vetoing the unbalanced draft resolution on the Strait of Hormuz in the UN Security Council). It has also has candidly explained its position to its Arab partners in the Gulf, avoided provoking Trump (important in the context of the Ukrainian crisis), and avoided undermining its relations with Israel, among other things. Washington’s increasingly declining interest in Ukraine, the deterioration of transatlantic relations, and the temporary rise in oil prices were side effects of the war and have occurred without any Russian involvement.

Looking ahead, Moscow gains the opportunity to develop closer ties with Tehran, which has survived a severe ordeal and significantly elevated its international standing. Russia, China, Iran, as well as Belarus and North Korea, are effectively forming the core of a new security system in Eurasia. Iran has just halted a U.S. geopolitical counter-offensive in the south of the continent. Russia’s achievement of its objectives in the Ukrainian conflict would stop a similar attempt in the west. In the east, China is strengthening its military power in anticipation of a possible U.S. confrontation while simultaneously intensifying its diplomatic efforts. It is through such actions—not political declarations—that a truly multipolar world is being shaped.