Experts Present Four Scenarios for Russia-Germany Relations
Short version
From an idyllic union to mutual isolation - Russian and German analysts have outlined the alternatives for developing relations between Russia and Germany.
A presentation of the project “Russian-German relations in 2030: Four scenarios”under the patronage of Frank-Walter Steinmeier, Chairman of the SDP Parliamentary group in the German Bundestag, and Igor Ivanov, Russian International Affairs Council (RIAC) President, took place on October 31, 2013. Within the framework of the project, a group of twenty Russian and German experts formulated four possible scenarios of the future relations between Russia and Germany taking into consideration the current global tendencies.
Full version
From an idyllic union to mutual isolation - Russian and German analysts have outlined the alternatives for developing relations between Russia and Germany.
A presentation of the project “Russian-German relations in 2030: Four scenarios”under the patronage of Frank-Walter Steinmeier, Chairman of the SDP Parliamentary group in the German Bundestag, and Igor Ivanov, Russian International Affairs Council (RIAC) President, took place on October 31, 2013. Within the framework of the project, a group of twenty Russian and German experts formulated four possible scenarios of the future relations between Russia and Germany taking into consideration the current global tendencies.
Among the positive scenarios the most probable one is entitled “Cargo Vessel”. Under this scenario, Russia and Germany are led by real interests in their relations, rather than by abstract values and ideals. In other words, the cooperation will mainly develop in the sphere of economy and enhancing security on the Balkans and in the Middle East. However, this very scenario stipulates disintegration of the eurozone and establishment of smaller formats of the European integration as well as a considerable decrease in the US interest in the European region.
The authors make a reservation that they are not attempting to predict the future. Their scenarios for the future aim at showing what actions undertaken by the politicians will lead to which scenario. The practical benefit of their work also consists in the fact that each scenario can be chosen as a desirable reference for the future against which all the actions can be checked.
Among the participants in the discussion of the future scenarios were Rudolf Traub-Merz, head of the Friedrich Ebert Foundation in Russia; Vladimir Chizhov, Permanent Representative of the Russian Federation to the European Union and RIAC member; Vladimir Kotenev, Ambassador Extraordinary and Plenipotentiary of the Russian FederationtoGermany in 2004 - 2010; Michael Harms, Executive Director of the German-Russian Chamber of Commerce; Fyodor Lukyanov, RIAC member; Vladislav Inozemtsev, member of the RIAC Presidium; Yaroslav Lissovolik, Member of the Management Board and Head of Deutsche Bank Research in Russia; Ulrich Brandenburg, Ambassador Extraordinary and Plenipotentiary of Germany to the Russian Federation. The discussion was moderated by Konstantin Eggert.
Presentation of the project “Russian-German relations in 2030: Four scenarios”