Alexey Gromyko delivered an lecture on the outlook of the European Union to 2030 at the Baltic Federal University

Alexey Gromyko, Dr. of Political Sciences, Deputy Director of the Institute of Europe, the Russian Academy of Sciences, in partnership with the Russian International Affairs Council, delivered an open lecture on the outlook of the European Union to 2030 at the Immanuel Kant Baltic Federal University.

Alexey Gromyko, Dr. of Political Sciences, Deputy Director of the Institute of Europe, the Russian Academy of Sciences, in partnership with the Russian International Affairs Council, delivered an open lecture on the outlook of the European Union to 2030 at the Immanuel Kant Baltic Federal University.

- Sir, what is the main idea of your lecture?

- Today, I was honored to deliver a lecture and a seminar, during which I tried to give an EU forecast to 2030, and reflect on whether this center of power in the world is fading or entering into new heights. The students took a great interest in the topic because the future of relations between Russia and Europe will depend on those who are 20-25 years old today.

- So, what is your outlook for the EU to 2030?

- In the next 20 years, I do not foresee the collapse of the Eurozone, and I am close to ruling out a disaster scenario. The European Union’ mechanism is so stable and rigid that it is unlikely to be ruined. Its very nature does not provide for a radical change. Therefore, Europe is more likely to overcome the current problems rather than fall into a collapse. The EU appears to be moving towards stabilization and further growth both as an economic and a political entity. This does not mean that the EU is on the verge of recovery from the crisis. In the coming years, there will be a lot of “domestic quarrels” and disputes within the Union. The EU’s stagnation will, by inertia, delay the growth period until 2030.

The quite long period of EU enlargement is now followed by a period of deepening of the integration and consolidation processes. Today, the EU is on the verge of the next restart, the first of which occurred in 1986, and the second one in 1992. The EU is returning to the slogan of the nation states federation. The final formation of a two-speed Europe seems to be inevitable. The first one will focus on the intergovernmental nature of a state and the second one – on the national nature. This process goes hand in hand with the strengthening of internal differentiation within the EU. In particular, it can affect the configuration of boundaries. I do not rule out that two states may emerge in Belgium; Scotland may become independent, while Catalonia may separate from Spain. After 2020, Moldova may become part of Romania, and Kosovo may join Albania.

- How do you see the future relations between Russia and the EU?

- With regard to their foreign policy, they will both compete and complement each other. Strategic thinking not only in the economic but also in the foreign policy is gradually emerging within the EU. The new developments in security and foreign policy will lead to the growth of both soft and hard power, i.e., the European army. However, the development of the EU as a strong player can be an incentive for cooperation between Moscow and Brussels in the framework of joint peacekeeping missions, where their interests do not intersect. I think that before 2020 Moscow and Brussels will find a way of introducing a visa-free regime. Brussels has already created a new mechanism for decision-making –a Standing EU Foreign and Security Policy Committee has been set up. The interdependence in the energy sector will also push politicians to work together.

- What role will Kaliningrad Oblast play in the relations between Russia and the EU?

- The westernmost part of Russia – Kaliningrad – will play a major role in relations between Europe and Russia. This applies not only to policy and security issues, but also to the economic development of the tourism industry. Ultimately, everything will depend on which decisions will be taken by certain politicians.

- In your opinion, why is it important for students to listen to such lectures?

- Those who are 20-25 years old today must clearly understand that the world in which they live will be different after 5, 10, 15 years, and further. Young people need to make use of available opportunities and not to remain passive, believing that the world is changing on its own without our involvement.

Author: Lucia Sharafutdinova

Source: Intellika.info.