JVLV.NET: HOW AN OWLISH KENTUCKIAN CAN STOP PUTIN IN THE UKRAINE, By Jiri & Leni Valenta, 11-17-14

Vladimir Putin would do well to understand how American democracy works – because it does.  It also corrects itself when it veers off course.   Thus, he should take seriously the sea change that happened during our mid-term elections.  The American people spoke! With their votes they sent a message to President Obama. But there was also a post script to Mr. Putin.  They don´t like Russia´s continuous military intervention in the Ukraine.

What Americans did with their Republican rout was to put out to pasture the powerful, former Senate Majority leader, Harry Reid – a primary cause of the dysfunction enveloping the Senate.  No longer will legislators pass complex laws in a matter of days and create consensus by fiat. No more Obamacare-like bills, passed without transparency or proper vetting, on what Professor Jonathan Gruber, the President´s Dr. Strangelove, arrogantly viewed as the “stupidity of the American people.”  Gruber can go work for Putin´s pseudo parliament if he likes. Thankfully, many of the hundreds of bills Reid has been crumpling into his desk -- including those of fellow Democrats -- will finally be sent to the floor for votes.  Gridlock may just unlock.

Hail to the new Senate chief, Republican Mitch McConnell, the man with what George Will, with self-deprecating humor, called his “owlish, tight-lipped, public demeanor reminiscent of George Will.”  A modern version of Kentuckian Henry Clay, McConnell is a passionate defender of a dignified functioning Senate, and has stated his aim to restore the healthy procedures customary under former Democratic majority leader Mike Mansfield.  

Harry Reid’s sour face indicates he knows what´s coming.   The Democrats have since abandoned efforts to block the long standing legislation to build the Keystone Pipeline – essential to our energy independence.  Six democrats have even challenged Reid´s Democratic Party leadership.  At hand is  the remaking of the U.S Senate from Putin-like rubber stamping of the executive branch, into a traditional American, transparent, bipartisan, legislative body.  Legislative oversight will not be held hostage to party politics. Reasserting its traditional role, Congress will also assert its inalienable right to both loosen and tighten the nation´s purse strings as our vital national security warrants.

For Russia, the rise of Mitch McConnell will likely mean what Putin´s advisor, Sergei Rogov, has already explained.  “While the Democrats were in the majority in the Senate, none of those anti-Russian bills received support … Now they might be put to the vote again and most probably given a go-ahead.”   The Senate Arms Committee, chaired by John McCain, will surely seek to pass a robust bill increasing sanctions on Russia for invading eastern Ukraine and will also advocate sending lethal arms to Kyiv.

 Obama´s continuous weak posture in foreign policy has only helped to create disorder in the world order.   It is one reason why Russia has broken the September Minsk understanding with the Ukraine that  JVLV supported: The National interest.  It is why Putin, like Nikita Khrushchev, earlier now engages in provocative air and naval deployments off America´s shores.

Macho chauvinist Putin has no admiration for America´s president who favors environmental and gay issues and allows the illegal immigration of millions of Central Americans to his country.  Undoubtedly, the Russian president realizes that his friends, the Chinese leaders, will not live up to their end of their environmental deal with the U.S., thus to Putin this is a charade unworthy of statesmanship.

Not only to Putin.  Australian president, Tony Abbott, frankly skeptical of the climate change threat, actually tried to keep the issue off the Brisbane G-20 Summit agenda. Understandably, since to him, ISIS,  now recruiting Moslem,  Australian youth, and Putin´s new intervention in the Ukraine, and Western sanctions affecting Western economic growth, are to him, and other world leaders, the major issues at hand.  Putin is also doubtless bewildered by Obama´s picking a fight with the Senate and imposing executive orders instead of forging bipartisan immigration reform that would secure America´s borders.

So, much is still up to Mr. Obama.   Above all, he must finally do what JVLV were among the first to propose in the Kyiv Post on April 21/2014  – agree to send those arms to Kyiv.  As we wrote then, it wouldn´t be the first time that America provided arms to countries besieged by Russia.  They did it for the Western Ukrainian partisans after WWII.  They did it for the former Yugoslavs through NATO member Italy, in 1949-52, thus deterring Stalin´s intended invasion.  During the Soviet-Afghanistan war, they helped the Afghan Muslim resistance through Pakistan.  Only this arms transfer to Kyiv, combined with constructive, high level diplomacy, will resolve the Ukraine crisis. Economic sanctions and saber rattling in small NATO Baltic members at Russia´s borders will not deter Putin. Obama should take his cue from the Australian and Canadian prime ministers who are demanding that Putin leave the Ukraine alone.

If Obama fights the Senate and tries to jam through executive orders, he will ensure the 2016 defeat of his party and go down as the worst president to date in history.  Unfortunately, Putin views Obama much like Nikita Khrushchev viewed President Kennedy at the 1961 Vienna Summit, a “political dilettante,” as former Soviet Ambassador to America, Anatoly Dobrynin, recalled. 

The president´s provocative weakness may yet put both us and the Russians on the slow path to another 1962 Cuban Missile-like crisis.  On the other hand, if Obama values his legacy, he must finally realize that getting the Senate and it’s new, Owlish leader behind him, can strengthen his spine in dealing not just with unpredictable Putin, but also with barbaric ISIS and Iran´s nuclear bomb-hungry mullahs.   ISIS, which brutally continues to behead Western hostages, is surely viewed not just in the White House, but also in the Kremlin, as a menace to both American as well as Russian civilization.  

As in 1962, Providence has thus bestowed upon yet another American president an unavoidable challenge. He must finally take up America’s role as the indispensable force in maintaining the world order.  Seeking to take advantage of America´s growing involvement in Iraq, Putin like Khrushchev earlier, is obviously bluffing. His objective is similar to that of Khrushchev´s, to “exert as much pressure as possible” on the American president. 

If Obama, with the aid of the Owlish Kentuckian, surprises Putin as JFK did Khrushchev with a tough yet measured response, the Russian leader will compromise.  The man, who likes to be viewed not only as a Russian patriot but also a Christian autocrat, will devote himself to what unites our countries – the global struggle against the Islamic terrorists and their building of Sharia caliphates, not only in the Middle East but also in Russia proper, the Northern Caucasus.  He will eventually seek a new Grand Bargain with America including a compromise on the Ukraine.