Narendra Modi, the New India PM: a Reagan or a Putin?

The May 16, 2014 victory of Prime Minister Narendra Modiin the world´s largest  democratic election  is indeed a game-changer. His Bharatiya Jamala (BJP) party won a landslide victory in parliament against the  Congress Party incumbents. 

The victory of pro-business Modi is looked upon in the U.S. primarily through the lens of America´s economic interests in the world´s third largest economy. But this election has the potential to change the geopolitical landscape as did the elections of Ronald Reagan and Vladimir Putin. The victory of a tough, conservative Hindu leader, who abhors Islamist terrorism and is prepared to fight is the key factor.

Modi has had his problems, however, with the U.S. government. In 2005, his visa was revoked because of accusations that textbooks published in the 1980´s when he was Chief Minister [governor] of Gujarat praised Nazi accomplishments under Hitler.   The more important cause of the visa revocation, however, was that he was allegedly not pro-active in stopping Muslim- Hindu riots in 2002 Guzarat.

The conflict began when Muslims attacked and incinerated a train full of Hindu pilgrims. The Hindu population retaliated causing massive carnage. Modi was not fully exonerated of negligence until   December 26, 2013 when a Gujarat court upheld the decision of a special investigation team monitored by the Indian Supreme Court 18 months earlier.Cleared of the charge of not doing enough  in 2002,  Modi will likely be pro-active in future conflicts now.

Whatever the charges against Modi, Israel is not paying much attention to the “Hitler” business. They developed good relations with India during the rule of the Congress party, and Israel  is a large exporter of military hardware, particularly drones, to India. Seeing Modi as a Reagan, they believe he will  upgrade their political and diplomatic ties with Israel.

Modi has already accepted an invitation to visit neighboring Pakistan.   Undoubtedly,he wants to discuss attacks on the disputed territories of Jammat and Kashmirby Lashkar-e-Tayyiba [Army of the Righteous]terrorists, who seek Sharia rule in these regions. Indications are Modi will display a tougher approach towards terrorists activities  by these Al Qaeda affiliates than his predecessor. Modi can also be helpful to us in restraining Pakistan´s ambivalent attitudes towards both the Taliban and America in its Pushtun border areas.  

A pro-business conservative, Modi  has an authoritarian bent and will likely get along  with Russia´s president, Vladimir Putin. The Ukraine conflict is not Modis´s primay concern. We do not foresee any dramatic changes in Russia´s providing 75% of India´s military imports, but there might be some room for new, U.S. military contracts.  With respect to China, India´s main concern,is likely the disputed territory in the Himalaya borderlands which caused a 1962 war between the two countries. We believe Modi will try to avoid  new conflict with China and want to work with them against Islamic terrorism.China too, has been the subject of bloody attacks by various terrorist groups in the last few years.

Potentially, Modi could become a more willing partner with the U.S., China and Russia in sharing intelligence, and even joint actions, against terrorism.We discussed this possible partnership in our article, “Rogue States, Terrorist Groups and Terrorism,” in  the August 2013 issue of The National interest, and in Indian Strategic Studies.   But we were hesitant to include India. Now, of course, this is a must.

Unfortunately, inadequate U.S. intelligence evaluations and bipartisan lack of foresight related to the Gujarat sectarian riots, has resulted in possible injuries to a U.S. alliance with Modi. In 2005, Condoleeza Rice´s  State Department revoked Modi´s visa under the 1998 International Religious Freedom Act, and the recommendations of its standing Commission.  Yet Modi was the only person ever so  denied! Surely no leaders of repressive, Muslim states were deprived of their visas. The State Department also seems also to have been motivated by the lobbying of Indian Americans,  supporters of the opposing Congress party .Although Modi´s popularity continued to rise along with our struggle against Moslem terrorism, Hillary Clinton made no changes in Modi´s visa status. Nor was the U.S. Congress any better.In November 2013, a bipartisan resolution to uphold the sanction on Modi was introduced into the House with numerous sponsors.

The following month, on December 26,  after Modi was cleared of the charges by the Gujarat Court,Clinton successor John Kerry  still failed to swiftly reactto changed circumstances. Certainly,he should not have waited until two months ago to send his envoy in India to Modi at a time when Modi´s victory was already assured. Hopefully, the new PM of this democratic, second most populous world country, will not be guided by past slights, but the necessity of limiting Islamist terrorism. He should visit Washington as soon as possible!More than ever, we need Modi as our strategic ally.