Can Latvia be the next Ukraine?

Latvia as the European country with the largest Russian minority of 28 % has become the focus of international attention. Since the Baltic country is a NATO and EU member, a Russian military intervention could lead to a multilateral conflict with unforeseen consequences.  This would require the clear support of the Latvia’s Russian minority for the Putin government.  In the context of the current Ukraine crisis, has Russia’s soft power approach been effective in Latvia and which greater consequences could this have in the future?  Russia’s soft power approach towards ethnic Russians in Latvia undermines the political unity of Latvia’s society.

            Russian soft power in Latvia relies on three major pillars.  Firstly, the Putin government has taken measures to protect ethnic Russians in Latvia by granting them automatic citizenship and hence to link them more strongly to Russia.  The majority of Russians in Latvia are not citizens, with neither a Latvian passport nor the right to vote.  The Russian government has regarded this legal situation as infringement of human rights.  Secondly, Russia has strongly promoted the Russian language in Latvia.  The Latvian language has been the only official language in Latvia despite more than a third of its inhabitants considers Russian as their mother tongue.  In 2008, Russia’s government-sponsored foundation Russkiy Mir opened two Russian language centers in Latvia to increase the base of the Russian language and to maintain cultural ties.  Finally, Russian state media has influenced ethnic Russians in Latvia.  Last April, the pro-Western Latvian government banned temporarily Russian state television broadcasts such as Rossiya RTR because it found that the Ukraine crisis was subjectively presented in Russia’s favor.  Yet, Russian TV channels and pro-Russian newspapers have maintained popularity among ethnic Russians in Latvia due to easily understandable explanations of events combined with attractive entertainment.

            Using multiple channels to connect to ethnic Russians in Latvia, Russian soft power has had a significant impact on Latvia.  However, Latvia is a NATO member, which means that under Article 5 of the treaty, members would be obligated to treat any Russian aggression against Latvia as aggression against themselves, and would need to respond in kind.  The Putin government has not wanted to provoke such an unprecedented situation. Although direct military activities by Russia in Latvia like in the Ukraine seem rather unlikely, the ethnic Russian’s support for the Putin regime has the potential to tear the Baltic country apart, which could become a severe problem for EU and NATO.  A closer future cooperation between the Latvian government and Western democracies to counteract Russian influence might lead to an intensification of the relations of Latvia’s ethnic Russians to the Putin Regime.