Russian Pugwash Committee blog

PUGWASH CONFERENCES ON SCIENCE & WORLD AFFAIRS; “CONFRONTING NEW NUCLEAR DANGERS”, ASTANA 25-29 AUGUST. PRESIDENTIAL ADDRESS – Jayantha Dhanapala

September 21, 2017
Distinguished Guests, Fellow Pugwashites, Ladies & Gentlemen,
It is the 60th anniversary year of the Pugwash Conferences on Science and World Affairs. Almost two years have passed since we last met in a major Pugwash Conference. In my Presidential Address at every conference it has been customary for me to survey the contemporary global scene through the prism of Pugwash principles presenting a Pugwash perspective. Our previous conference was in Nagasaki where a nuclear weapon was last used by the USA on August 9, 1945 killing 35,000–40,000 people outright with an eventual total of 60,000– 80,000 fatalities, colossal property damage and environmental pollution and health effects of a widespread and longlasting nature symbolized by the heroic hibakusha. Since we met in Nagasaki it has been an eventful period not all of which augurs well for international peace and security.
The Nuclear Prohibition Treaty
This Pugwash Conference has been preceded by a more auspicious event. Earlier this year, on July 7, we witnessed the historic signature of a total ban of nuclear weapons through the bold and courageous initiative of several non-nuclear weapon states including Kazakhstan. The Treaty on the Prohibition of Nuclear Weapons, while yet to be ratified and implemented, is undoubtedly a historic step forward and gigantic leap for humankind which Pugwash must applaud and support. For me personally at the end of a long career in multilateral disarmament I am deeply satisfied by this achievement of one of my life long ambitions. The delegitimisation of all three categories of weapons of mass destruction is now a fait accompli. The physical elimination of these weapons is now our responsibility. Our conference in Astana is thus the first major multilateral event to celebrate this landmark treaty and I thank the host Government for giving us this opportunity.
I congratulate the International Campaign Against Nuclear Weapons (ICAN) and allied NGOs for their relentless campaign as well as the 122 nation states who moved the General Assembly resolution last year and saw it through every step of its implementation. Pugwash conducted an event on the margins of the conference. Ambassador Sergio Duarte followed the conference right through its duration making a plenary statement on behalf of Pugwash. At the conclusion of the conference Pugwash issued a statement welcoming the treaty. I also published an op-ed reflecting my personal views from which I would like to quote –
“ Several factors operate in favour of the future of the Treaty. First it has set a modest target of 50 ratifying states for entry into force rather than the 44 specifically named states in the CTBT including the USA. Second a history of comparable treaties show that the lapse of time between the first surge of signatories and the totally inclusive nature of the Treaty may be long but the validity of the treaty as international law is undisputed. In the particular case of the NPT when the UN General Assembly adopted Resolution 2373 in 1968, endorsing the draft text of the Nuclear Nonproliferation Treaty (NPT), the vote was 95 to 4 with 21 abstentions. The 122 countries that voted for the adoption of the Treaty for the Prohibition of Nuclear Weapons are thus pioneers on a bold and exciting path combining security concerns with humanitarian interests.”
What next? Pugwash must lead the way with innovative strategies. Today 189 countries are party to the NPT which is the most widely subscribed to multilateral disarmament treaty. The 122 countries that voted for the adoption of the Treaty for the Prohibition of Nuclear Weapons are trailblazers on a bold and pioneering path combining security concerns with humanitarian interests. It was the collective voice of the public conscience and the speaking of truth to power – the awesome power of the nuclear weapon. The Preparatory Committee meetings and the actual 2020 NPT Review Conference must endeavour to reconcile the two treaties so that nuclear disarmament and non-proliferation are finally merged credibly. There can be no proliferation if the weapons themselves are banned.
Kazakhstan
We meet in the capital of Kazakhstan. The 550th anniversary of the Kazakh Khanate was celebrated in 2015 marking the genesis of the Kazakh nation. We are fortunate to have the pleasure and privilege of being visitors in this ancient land – the Land of the Wanderers – heir to a centuries old traditional culture; a land that is at the same time a vibrant modern nation. It is a nation which since 1991 has been a trailblazer in international relations and in the specific area of building a nuclearweapon free world.
The vision of a nuclear-weapon free world inspired the leader of Kazakhstan, President Nursultan Nazarbayev, long before it was announced by President Obama in his now famous Prague speech of 2009. Kazakhstan, Belarus and Ukraine were left with Russian nuclear weapons on their soil when the Cold War ended and the Soviet Union imploded.
The Lisbon Protocol to the 1991 Strategic Arms Reduction Treaty was an agreement by representatives of Russia, Belarus, Ukraine, and Kazakhstan that all nuclear weapons of the former Soviet Union on the soil of those four states would be destroyed or transferred to the control of Russia. All four states agreed to join the Treaty on the Non-Proliferation of Nuclear Weapons, with Russia the successor to the Soviet Union as a nuclear weapon state, and the other three states joining as nonnuclear weapon states.
The protocol was signed in Lisbon, Portugal, on May 23, 1992. Of the three countries Kazakhstan was the most meticulous in fulfilling its obligations and had surrendered all nuclear weapons to Russia by May 1995.
Another historic decision taken by Kazakhstan unilaterally was the closure of the nuclear weapons test site in Semipalatinsk where during the period 1948-89, 456 tests had been conducted by the then USSR with disastrous consequences to the health of the people in the area and the environment – consequences that linger to this day. It is 26 years since that momentous closure of the site took place under the courageous leadership of President Nazarbayev.Since then, in an impressive example of international collaboration for peace and security, Kazakhstan, the Russian Federation and the USA have co-operated in the cleanup of the site.
On August 29 we memorialize that historic event by observing, as a result of an initiative at the UN by our host country, the International Day against Nuclear Tests. Moreover the ATOM Project initiated a "global moment of silence on that day to honour all victims of nuclear weapons tests".
Finally, in another major step towards building a nuclear weapon-free world, the Almaty Declaration of 1992 called for the declaration of Central Asia as a nuclearweapon-free zone (CANWFZ). It was followed by the five Central Asian nations cosponsoring a resolution in the 1997 UN General Assembly calling for CANWFZ and for the United Nations to assist in its creation.
Early in 1998 at the personal invitation of Kofi Annan, I assumed duties as UnderSecretary-General heading the newly re-established Department for Disarmament Affairs as a key element of the reforms made by Annan. It was thus my task to conduct the negotiations for the implementation of the CANWFZ resolution with the co-operation of the Central Asian states.
It was the first time the UN was directly involved in the negotiation of a nuclearweapon-free zone. We held discussions among experts from the five Central Asian states and then extended the scope to include the 5 Nuclear weapon states. It had long been my personal conviction that nuclear-weapon-free zones are an invaluable mechanism in achieving progress towards a nuclear-weapon free world. While the Treaty for the Nonproliferation of Nuclear Weapons (NPT) was signed in 1968 as a product of the Cold War with the USA and then USSR co-drafting it, fifty years ago in 1967 the Treaty of Tlatelolco was signed predating the NPT. It was a product of non-nuclear weapon states in Latin America and the Caribbean. It was affirmative action and a self-conscious act of rejecting nuclear weapons in the safeguarding of their national security.
Nuclear-weapon free zones are in fact quarantine zones to protect these countries from the nuclear weapon contagion. They have no nuclear umbrellas. They have no extended deterrence. But, they have, through a policy of self-reliance, adopted a nuclear weapon-free zone in order to protect themselves. Once states in a region have a consensus on a NWFZ the success of their efforts is assured.
To solidify this consensus in Central Asia I decided, with the support of SecretaryGeneral Annan to visit the 5 Central Asian countries to ascertain that the political will did exist for a CANWFZ. That was my first visit to Kazakhstan in 2002. All my visits to the Central Asian countries and my high level talks confirmed that a strong political will for concluding a CANWFZ did exist. Indeed we could have signed the Treaty in 2002 with Kofi Annan himself being present at the signing ceremony in Semipalatinsk. Sadly that was not to be because of the obstructionist attitude of the Western nuclear-weapon states (NWS).
I ceased to be Under-Secretary General (USG) in 2003 but to my great satisfaction the opposition of the Western NWS was overcome and the CANWFZ was signed in 2006. I am also glad that the protocols to the Treaty were signed by the NWS at the NPT Review Conference in 2010. I take this opportunity to congratulate the Central Asian states, and in particular Kazakhstan, on their political courage and their persistence and dedication to achieving security without nuclear weapons in their own region.
Earlier this year, I was privileged to be invited to speak at the 50th anniversary of the Tlatelolco Treaty in Mexico City to convey the greetings of Pugwash on this memorable occasion. I am also glad that our Conference continues to have the Middle East Weapons of Mass Destruction Free Zone on our agenda as an essential part of the solution to the problems of that region.
We have miles to go in this journey towards a nuclear-weapon-free world. Kazakhstan is uniquely situated to make a dynamic contribution consistent with its achievements to date. Straddling the two continents of Europe and Asia it belongs to Organization for Security and Co-operation in Europe (OSCE) and to the Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO).
The spirit of the Helsinki Accords is desperately needed in both continents to achieve détente especially at this juncture. Kazakhstan has been elected as a non-permanent member of the UN Security Council for 2017-18 and, with Japan, is co-chair of the CTBT piloting the long overdue entry-into-force of this key Treaty. The launch of the Low-enriched Uranium Bank in Astana on 29 August is yet another achievement strengthening both the peaceful uses of nuclear energy pillar and the non-proliferation pillar of the NPT.
There are of course other steps in the journey to a nuclear-weapon free world apart from the creation of more NWFZs and the entry into force of the CTBT beginning with the immediate halt to the modernization of nuclear weapons by the nine states who own these weapons.
Militarism, the Rise of Populism and the Challenge to Democracy
We are at a transformational moment. Violence and conflict triggered by extremist ideologies and an arms race among great, regional and small powers result in a total of $1686 billion or US $ 220 per head on military expenditure alone in 2016. Nine nuclear weapon armed states with a total arsenal of 15,395 warheads, 4120 of them operationally deployed threaten the catastrophe of nuclear war launched whether as policy, by computer hacking or computer error. The application of Artificial Intelligence to weapon manufacture is accelerating and I am glad that in the “Stop Killer Robots” Campaign, where John Finney and I represent Pugwash, we have succeeded in having the CCW agree to setting up a Group of Governmental Experts to study the issue of Lethal Autonomous Weapons System (LAWS) which, hopefully, will lead to a convention banning these weapons. Moreover, following a Pugwash proposal as an ex-officio member of UNESCO's World Commission on the Ethics of Scientific Knowledge and Technology (COMEST), a report is about to be produced by COMEST on the ethical aspects of autonomous weapons - as well as of modern robotics more generally.
The easy availability of arms and inadequate international co-operation facilitates the task of the terrorists who fall prey to beguiling nihilist ideologies. They cause the deaths and injuries of countless innocent victims which Pugwash, pledged as we are to peaceful dialogue, condemns unhesitatingly. No cause can justify this mindless violence.
Populism – a counterfeit or fake brand of democracy – is being enthroned in the West and other parts of the world. Growing intolerance of minorities is spreading, triggered by the largest wave of enforced displacement of refugees and migrants since World War II. Fear is being spread, hate speech by leaders is followed by hate crime and widening income disparities are exploited to fuel chauvinism. In the face of this widespread illiberalism we must, each of us, come to terms with accepting the need for tolerance, goodwill and equality. The rise of reckless leadership tapping into cheap popularity among the malcontents and instant communication modes like “tweeting” rather than wisely conceptualized policy statements is alarming. Aggressive nationalism and increased military expenditure leads to isolationism, beggar they neighbour policies and global tensions. We must build walls of defence against a rise of fascism. Fortunately the defeat of Le Pen in France signals the likely reversal of what once seemed a trend.
The deteriorating relations between the two major nuclear weapon states who possess 95% of the world’s nuclear arsenal is alarming. Past agreements, such as the INF, are being questioned and the likelihood of new agreements whether for arms limitation or arms reduction grows dimmer by the day. The Third Report of the Deep Cuts Commission has addressed the situation and made recommendations. The Nuclear Posture Review, a major strategic undertaking that will frame the Trump administration’s nuclear policy, is expected by the end of this year. A new nuclear cruise missile, known as the Long Range Standoff weapon, or LRSO is expected to be its major feature apart from a greatly increased budget. Sanctions are being employed recklessly triggering off trade wars and other retaliatory measures. This encourages economic nationalism and the roll back of multilateralism as mutually beneficial multilateral trade pacts are torn up.
Climate Change, the Arctic and Pugwash
The announcement that the USA will abandon the Paris Agreement has been a major setback. All the years dedicated scientists from diverse countries within the International Panel for Climate Change (IPCC) spent researching and compiling their reports had led to the international consensus in Paris last year. In Antarctica just last month we had the largest iceberg being dislodged as a dramatic illustration of climate change.
The impact of climate change on the Arctic is a subject of great interest to me and which I am glad the Canadian Pugwash Group continues to pursue. The maintenance of peace and security in the Arctic is made urgent, and more complex, by ongoing rapid climate changes. For example, Arctic ocean currents are no longer stable due to the incursion of warmer water from the Atlantic Ocean and fresh water from glacier melt; the effect is global. To sustain peace in the Arctic, the international community will need to encourage co-operative governance and through that means support environmental adaptation, human security, beneficial resource exploitation, and retention of the demilitarized status. The Arctic must be off-limits to nuclear weapons; the time is now for circumpolar nations to devise policies that include the aspirational goal of a nuclear-weapon-free Arctic. Inactivity on this carries significant risk.
In the ‘new’ Arctic, indigenous peoples deserve and want to participate; all circumpolar nations are increasing their military presence; and non-Arctic nations insist on a voice. Fortunately, there are multilateral agreements, e.g. the Search and Rescue Agreement of 2011, that recognize the necessity, in a very harsh environment, of cooperation for the common good. All are agreed that UNCLOS is the means of defining the seabed and ocean boundaries and claims for Exclusive Economic Zones. Military presence also entails regulatory support, search and rescue, assistance with environmental emergencies. The establishment of Nuclear-Weapon-Free-Zones, via a Treaty with UN-defined characteristics, has been useful in calming areas south of the equator, but only one NWFZ is in the northern hemisphere. Pugwash must recommend that an Arctic NWFZ is a next move that would strengthen legitimacy of total nuclear disarmament, precisely because, if it eventually developed to include two NWS, that would be a regional nuclear weapons convention. Therein lies the opportunity, for example, to test credible means of verification, learn means and resources required for storing fissile materials, and evaluate strategies.
Challenges to the formation of Arctic NWFZ are significant- only partial national territory would be involved; many circumpolar nations are NATO members, and United States and Russia are NWS. But, the right to pursue independent policies has been claimed by NWS and NNWS in NATO; Canada opposes the involvement of NATO in the Arctic. Non-Arctic nations, e.g. China, are deploying resources to enable major operations in the Arctic. Arctic Council observer nations include all other official NWS states, and also India. All have nuclear-weapon equipped submarines that could be deployed to the Arctic Ocean. The Arctic Council, at its formation in 1995, excluded all military and security issues, so it is not a viable initiator or host for negotiations on Arctic NWFZ. The possible pathway to a nuclearweapon-free Arctic can begin with the Non-Nuclear Weapon circumpolar states, who already comply with the United Nations NWFZ principles, working together on the formation of their own zone. Special provisions, such as the allowance for ‘innocent transit’ [UNCLOS, Art. 20] could allow the U.S, and Russia to sign on. For the international Arctic Ocean all NWS would need to sign NSA protocols.
The United Nations
Let me now move on to the United Nations. Throughout my life I have had an abiding faith in the United Nations Organization that, three years hence, will celebrate its 75th year. The foundation document of that unique world body – the Charter – is not only the bedrock of international law, but also the most inspiring document that can hold the international community together amidst its diversity and conflict. Individual countries and Governments are dominated by their separate concepts of national security whereas the UN has to weave 193 of these national security concepts of member states into a tapestry that will serve the common security of the global community in a co-operative and credible manner.
A new Secretary-General has begun his term at the UN with rich experience, wise leadership qualities and unalloyed idealism. He is ably represented at our conference by the High Representative for Disarmament Affairs Izumi Nakamitsu who read out his message to us at the opening of our Conference. We now have an opportunity to implement the principles of the Charter in an equitable manner. The first statement of Secretary General Antonio Guterres was simple and direct - “Peace must be our goal and our guide. All that we strive for as a human family – dignity and hope, progress and prosperity – depends on peace. But peace depends on us.” No one country or group of countries outside the UN can claim to police the world with legal or moral authority.
The Intellectual History Project of the UN led by Sir Richard Jolly and others has documented the ideas launched by the UN system in the area of economic and social development alone. More recently the achievement of the Millennium Development Goals and the agreement on the Sustainable Development Goals for fulfillment in 2030 prove the capacity of the UN to set common targets and work together for the common development of all nations It is a glimpse of the remarkable vision and creativity of the founders of the UN, which must remain, unchanged to inspire us and guide us. It shows how the UN in its economic and social development work has often been significantly ahead of governments, academics and other international institutions that later adopted its ideas. The capacity to generate these ideas must continue.
The UN is uniquely situated to be a vanguard of global public opinion. Transcending individual state-centred approaches, the UN can take a synoptic view of issues highlighting a multilateral perspective with global interdependencies clearly delineated. And because these synoptic views are based on consensus, broader public acceptance is made easier.
Over the seven decades and more of the UN's existence we have seen many successes although major challenges remain. The achievement of the decolonization of scores of Asian and African countries; the focus on Human Rights and its mainstreaming in international relations; the emphasis on Environment and Sustainable Development; on Gender issues and the shaping of a co-ordinated response to globalization, to terrorism, and other global challenges like HIV/AIDS are some of them. At the same time the UN has been engaged in the prevention of conflict and, where conflict has broken out, in peacekeeping, peacemaking and peacebuilding.
We are still in the early years of the first century of a new millennium in the human saga leaving behind the bloodiest century of all time. There is a unique opportunity for us to use the indisputable authority that the UN wields to shape a world order that is built more solidly on ethics than on the pursuit of individual profit or national selfinterest. In the year 2000 the largest ever gathering of Heads of State and Government met at the United Nations in New York and issued the historic Millennium Declaration. Significantly, before the Declaration embarks on setting objectives in respect of the different areas of peace, security and disarmament including the elimination of weapons of mass destruction especially nuclear weapons; development and poverty eradication; human rights, democracy and good governance including the Sustainable Development Goals; protecting the vulnerable and meeting the special needs of Africa, it addresses the issue of fundamental values underpinning international relations in the twenty-first century. That demonstrates a remarkably sound judgment of priorities. If the leaders of the world cannot agree on the ethical values that bind them together, they are unlikely to agree on common goals and common strategies to overcome what former Secretary-General Kofi Annan once called “problems without passports”.
It is relevant for us therefore, at this juncture to review these shared values set out in the United Nations Millennium Declaration as a common ethical base. They comprise six of the most basic aspirations of humankind -- freedom, equality, solidarity, tolerance, respect for nature, and shared responsibility. From each of these fundamental values we draw our guidance for the specific action plans that the international community committed itself to in the Millennium Declaration. It is a moral compass for us all. Individually these values represent powerful forces that have inspired and motivated humankind throughout millennia of history. They have been accelerators of human progress. Collectively they represent the benchmark against which we must judge the performance of individual nations and as the world community in taking humankind forward to a better and safer world.
As we speak the conflict in Syria has gone on for countless years with civilian casualties and the actual use of chemical weapons. The “Astana Process” is helping in the search for solutions and I wish it all success. Proxy wars and new conflicts have arisen in the Middle East. They have only weakened support for the Palestinian cause one of the major injustices awaiting a solution. The Joint Comprehensive Programme of Action (JCPOA) painstakingly negotiated by the Five plus One with Iran has worked well and full compliance has been attested to by the IAEA. And yet determined efforts are being made to undermine it. North Korea’s rapidly advancing nuclear weapon and missile programme demands global attention and a multilateral effort to negotiate a political solution to it. Sabre rattling and the exchange of harsh threats will do no good and I call on Pugwash members in the region to take an urgent initiative.
Farewell to Pugwash
The regular rhythm of having quinquennials determining the mandate of the Pugwash Council and Executive Committee was changed when the Quinquennial due in 2012 was postponed for 2013 – ostensibly because of slender staff resources and even more slender financial resources. The Pugwash plenary was kept informed of this and granted us the covering approval that was constitutionally and democratically necessary.
Fellow Pugwashites, there is in any organization a time for entrances and a time for exits for those at the helm. After my retirement from the UN as Under-SecretaryGeneral for Disarmament Affairs I was approached to accept the Presidency of Pugwash. Despite being honoured by this offer I was sceptical over my suitability having had no academic training, let alone distinction, in the hard sciences comparable to my distinguished predecessors. I therefore declined the offer and requested Pugwash to seek others more qualified than I. The offer was repeated some months later and I finally accepted it as an opportunity to continue my work for peace and disarmament especially nuclear disarmament. The Bari Conference in 2007 was my inauguration.
I assumed the Pugwash Presidency with huge ambitions for the organization but soon discovered that in an inhospitable climate for fund-raising and the astonishing democracy deficit within Pugwash I was reduced to a titular role with little impact. My ambitious proposals for institutional reform; the devising of a code of ethics for scientists engaged in the defence sectors of their nations (which I had addressed in my Dorothy Hodgkin Memorial Lecture in 2003), a major influx of new and younger members especially scientists; re-energising Pugwash offices in Geneva and Washington D.C; stronger bonds between Pugwash International and national groups and the addition or revival of new national groups – all alas, fell on stony ground. I am glad that I was able to visit national Pugwash groups in Canada, USA, United Kingdom, the Russian Federation, Japan, Switzerland and Germany (more than once in some cases) addressing audiences, holding media events and meeting Parliamentary and Governmental leaders. I am also glad that my personal association with the NPT enabled me to lead Pugwash into an energetic participation in the Review Conferences of 2010 and 2015. I wish I could have done more. Let me thank Dr.Jennifer Simons and Dr,Vartan Gregorian for standing by Pugwash loyally.
The repair of the democracy deficit involves greater transparency of accounts and activities. We cannot hide behind the confidentiality of our bridge-building work to withhold the information which is routinely made available to the membership in other organizations. We also cannot attract more funds with an archaic style of administration. Most importantly I have always believed in term limits for those at the helm of any organization whether international or national; governmental or nongovernmental. That is crucial in any democratically run organization and any compromise on this principle is disastrous. No one, and I mean no one, is indispensable. Bertrand Russell and Joe Rotblat came and went as Presidents despite their great contribution and global stature. I welcome and wish all success to the Pugwash reform movement that has just begun from within the Pugwash Council in co-operation with the national groups.
I am delighted that a friend of long standing from my days representing my country in the Geneva based Conference on Disarmament – the outstanding Brazilian diplomat Ambassador Sergio Duarte – has been invited to succeed me as President of Pugwash. Sergio has been Ambassador in several countries and was High Representative for Disarmament in the United Nations. His commitment to Pugwash and its principles is deep and sincere. I wish him all success. Pugwash for the first time has a President from the Latin American and Caribbean – and this in the 50th year anniversary year of the Treaty of Tlatelolco.
And so I have come to the end of my self imposed term of ten years as President and must heed my conscience and principles. I go well before the membership echoes the words of Oliver Cromwell of England in his address to the Rump Parliament on 20 April 1653 - “You have sat too long for any good you have been doing lately... Depart, I say; and let us have done with you. In the name of God, go!”
I leave the Pugwash Presidency while I still have your goodwill thanking the entire membership for their friendship and co-operation and wishing Pugwash many years of service to the international community in the spirit of the London Manifesto – “Remember your Humanity”.